Jun 10, 2019

Axios PM

Mike Allen

Good afternoon. Today's PM is 523 words, a 2 minute read.

1 big thing: The global fear of too few young people

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A new concern is taking hold across the developed world: rapidly aging populations that scare policymakers.

Why it matters: Population growth is key to maintaining demand for housing, filling jobs yet to be automated, and paying into pension systems pressed by demographic realities and slowing economic growth.

  • "You basically have a very large portion of mankind that is aging and then the workforce is shrinking. But I would say the G20 in particular are aging faster," said Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development secretary-general Angel Gurria. (AFP)

The big picture: Some countries — like the U.S. — are feeling these issues less thanks to immigration. Others — like China and Japan — are more restrictive, and feeling the bite in projected growth.

  • As societies get richer and women get more rights, they work more and have increased access to contraceptives.
  • While Europe and East Asia are already projected to lose population by 2050, the Western Hemisphere will mostly add people, and Africa's population is projected to soar, per UN projections.
  • The developing world is predicted to bear the brunt of climate change impacts, including potential political instability, meaning many more people might want to move to developed countries.
  • As we've seen in Europe and the U.S. in recent years, that isn't going well.

The bottom line: Earth has plenty of workers to do the jobs we need, just not in the countries where the jobs are right now. Fixing that mismatch is shaping up to be a central political challenge for the upcoming decades.

Go deeper: Special report... The aging, childless future

Bonus: Charts du jour
Expand chart
Data: United Nations World Population Prospects; Map: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
Expand chart
Data: The World Bank (birth rate, population growth, population); Note: 2.1 live births per woman is replacement level fertility. Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Interactive chart here.

2. What you missed

Former Chief White House Counsel John Dean prepares to testify about the Mueller Report. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

  1. Trump threatened China with an additional $300 billion in tariffs if Chinese President Xi Jinping fails to appear at the G20 summit in Japan. Details.
  2. House Judiciary postponed the criminal contempt process for AG Bill Barr after reaching a deal with Justice to access underlying documents supporting the Mueller report. Go deeper.
  3. Ten U.K. Conservative Party candidates have qualified to take part in the race to replace outgoing PM Theresa May as the party's leader. Details.
  4. Impossible Foods is dramatically expanding its Bay Area presence with 111 Burger King restaurants in the greater San Francisco Bay Area beginning to offer a Whopper using the meat alternative. Go deeper.
3. 1 fun thing

19 Democratic candidates visited the Iowa Democratic Party's Hall of Fame yesterday to deliver a five-minute campaign pitch to a throng of state party activists — and they hit the stage with a walk-out song of their own choosing, per TIME's Lissandra Villa:

Mike Allen