Axios Media Trends

August 04, 2026
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1 big thing: ⚖️ Substack's legal win
Substack says its Defender legal support program has won its first federal court victory, helping Jeff Stein, editor-in-chief of SpyTalk and Substack author, beat a $1 million defamation lawsuit filed against him in 2024 by former CIA official Keith Bass.
Why it matters: Substack is known to take a much larger cut (10%) of its creators' subscription revenues than other newsletter platforms, in part to provide backend services such as legal protections.
- In some cases, users have cited that fee as the reason for leaving the platform.
- Stein's case shows that for smaller publications and individual writers, especially those who cover sensitive topics or hold people in power to account, the expediency with which they can access those shared services makes a difference.
- "It would've been much harder to find a lawyer to defend me pro bono," Stein told Axios in an interview. He estimates Substack covered tens of thousands of dollars' worth of legal costs.
Zoom in: The case, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, alleged Stein defamed Bass by falsely reporting that he had been "effectively fired" as head of the CIA's Office of Medical Services in 2021 for poor management.
- Stein, who has been publishing his newsletter on Substack since 2020, said he quickly reached out to the platform's co-founders Chris Best, Hamish McKenzie and Jairaj Sethi. They promptly responded, offered two lawyers to represent him pro bono and said Substack would pick up their costs.
- Last month, Stein and his lawyers faced Bass' counsel in court. The judge dismissed Bass' case but left open a 14-day window for his team to amend and strengthen their complaint.
- After the 14 days passed with no amended complaint, Stein's lawyer said she received a notice from the court that the case was dismissed with prejudice, which means Bass is precluded from making any future defamation claims against Stein based on his article.
🛡️ Zoom out: Stein's case is the second one Substack Defender has won since the program launched six years ago, but the first major federal suit.
- The company won an anti-SLAPP case in a California state court last year that was filed against it and one of its writers, reporter Jack Poulson.
The big picture: More creator platforms, including Beehiiv, are offering journalists legal resources, including pre-publication legal review, errors and omissions insurance coverage, and access to ongoing legal counsel, as defamation suits against journalists rise.
- The Trump administration has a track record of using lawsuits to target journalists and news organizations, but many of those cases have proven unsuccessful. Several are still ongoing.
What to watch: Earlier this year, FBI director Kash Patel sued The Atlantic and one of its reporters, alleging they defamed him when the outlet published a story alleging he has an excessive drinking habit and a pattern of "erratic" behavior.
- Last week, The Atlantic asked a judge to toss the lawsuit, calling it "an assault" on the First Amendment.
2. 📨 Exclusive: NBC's Kornacki subscription
NBC News is launching a cross-platform franchise centered on Steve Kornacki's signature data-driven analysis, Kornacki told Axios in an interview.
Why it matters: The network is betting that one of its most recognizable on-air personalities can help drive sign-ups to the digital subscription offering it launched last year.
📊 State of play: "The Data Dive With Steve Kornacki" franchise will bring Kornacki's analysis to a weekly, subscriber-exclusive newsletter.
- The email, publishing Tuesday mornings, will launch with a heavy focus on the 2026 midterms, offering readers a detailed breakdown of the numbers, trends and data points shaping the biggest stories in the election cycle, Kornacki says.
🗳️ Zoom out: "Data Dive" builds on the popularity of the "Kornacki Cam," an election-night livestream that has generated more than 25 million views across 14 election nights, according to data from an NBC News spokesperson.
- Kornacki said the streams began as an experiment but revealed an audience eager to spend hours following narrow returns in real time.
The big picture: Kornacki's new franchise reflects a broader NBC News and industrywide push to build media businesses around individual talent.
- In addition to elevating its own journalists, NBC News has also hired external experts — such as tech journalist Joanna Stern — to boost its subscription offerings.
🏈 What to watch: In the future, Kornacki says he plans to widen his "Data Dive" coverage beyond politics to sports.
- Last year, he was named chief data analyst for NBC News and NBC Sports under a new contract that moved him away from MSNBC, now known as MS NOW, where he had been a host and correspondent.
3. 👋 Exclusive: New Business Insider CEO
Axel Springer has named Business Insider's interim CEO Christian Baesler as the outlet's permanent chief executive, Baesler confirmed to Axios in an interview. He replaces Barbara Peng, who departed in May.
Why it matters: The German media giant is betting on Baesler to reinvent the nearly 20-year-old publication for a post-search and social media traffic era.
Zoom in: Baesler, an Axel Springer advisor who joined Business Insider as interim CEO in June, believes outsiders underestimate the strength of the Business Insider brand because they focus too much on web traffic.
- He said the company's audience now spans many platforms, including newsletters, events and YouTube, where it has more than 10 million subscribers.
- Last month, it launched a stand-alone streaming app and a FAST channel.
👔 Between the lines: To monetize that reach, Baesler said the outlet needs to continue focusing on direct sales and subscriptions by building niche brands that cater to the outlet's audience of young, affluent professionals.
- He said the company plans to launch and repackage existing content around four verticals to start — Markets Insider, AI Insider, Small Business Insider and CMO Insider.
💰 The big picture: Axel Springer bought Business Insider in 2015 at a $442 million valuation. At the time, it was considered one of the most successful digital media exits in the modern era. But over the past few years, the company has struggled to find its footing.
- Despite the challenges that come with turning the business around, Axel Springer says it doesn't have plans right now to sell the publication.
- "Axel Springer has full confidence in Christian as the permanent CEO of Business Insider and is committed to the company's long-term success," said Claudius Senst, Axel Springer's executive board member for publishing.
4. 🏔️ Ellison says CNN holding up his deal
David Ellison has remained largely quiet over the past few weeks as state attorneys general sued to block his deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery.
- But in a new op-ed published in the New York Times today, he said he believes the issue isn't really about antitrust concerns, it's about "whether I can be trusted as a steward of Warner's CNN."
What he's saying: Ellison said that while he "can't give anyone a view into my heart and mind ... I have regularly voted for candidates of both parties; I hold some views that would be called conservative and others that would be called liberal, just like most Americans."
- "When it comes to our news operations," he wrote, "I do not aspire to lead these companies to bend their newsrooms to my views. I believe that news should be based on facts and truth."
Why it matters: The dozen Democratic state attorneys general suing to block the deal have cited antitrust concerns surrounding the combined company's dominance within the theatrical studios and cable markets.
- Onlookers have suggested a CNN divestiture could help Paramount get the deal over the finish line, but there's no way to prove that would assuage an independent judiciary at trial.
Zoom out: California Attorney General Rob Bonta has criticized federal regulators for "dropping the ball" by approving deals he said violate antitrust law, which may have helped inspire his suit to block the deal.
- Meanwhile in Washington, FCC chair Brendan Carr and Republican commissioner Olivia Trusty are facing complaints for accepting gifts from Paramount and CBS.
What's next: Today, the court scheduled a 12-day trial for the states' case against Paramount to begin on March 2, 2027.
- Paramount was pushing for a trial this fall, as the company's ticking fee goes into place Oct. 1.
- With a March trial, the company will owe shareholders more than $1 billion in ticking fees if it doesn't reach a settlement before then.
Disclosure: Axios senior media reporter Sara Fischer is a paid contributor for CNN, currently owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.
5. 🔊 Spotify joins Netflix in the 300M club


Spotify said Tuesday it topped 300 million paid subscribers, joining Netflix as the only major global streaming platforms known to have reached that milestone.
🎙️ Why it matters: It underscores the company's yearslong strategy to shift from a music streaming app into a broader platform for personalized audio and fan experiences.
- New premium offerings, including tiered subscription products and AI-driven personalized experiences, are what's helping drive subscriptions.
The big picture: Once criticized for thin margins, Spotify has proved it can build a consistently profitable business.
- Gross margin hit a record 33.4% last quarter, moving the company closer to its long-term 35%–40% margin target.
- Free cash flow also hit a record high of €797 million ($918 million) in Q2.
🤖 The big picture: After years of expanding beyond music into podcasts and audiobooks, Spotify told investors in May that it's now entering its next phase of using AI and personalization to deepen engagement.
- It believes leveraging AI to build a "large taste model" around user preferences, rather than building its own LLMs, will allow it to innovate without spending billions of dollars on AI infrastructure costs.
What to watch: While Spotify's ads business remains challenged, the company believes it will see stronger gains in the second half of the year as it expands automated ad-buying tools globally.
- Ad-supported revenue grew 1% year over year, compared to 15% for premium subscription revenue growth.
6. 🦾 GenAI comes for advertising
Six months ago, the conversation about AI in advertising revolved around generating creative. Now, it's becoming an autonomous campaign operator across every major channel.
Why it matters: With agentic advertising spreading across every major channel, brands can now operate at a scale previously unimaginable.
- With search and commerce, Google released AI Max to automate more targeting and optimization and introduced Ask Ads Advisor, Yahoo created a DSP agent network, and Amazon is bringing agentic ads to Alexa+.
- Across the social platforms, Meta released connectors linking external AI systems with its advertising tools, Snap launched Smart Assistant, TikTok built an agentic hub, and Pinterest introduced Business Assistant.
- TV networks, including NBCUniversal, Disney, Fox, Netflix and Paramount, are rolling out agentic workflows. They all joined WPP Media's agentic standards initiative for video buying.
By the numbers: Generative AI search ad revenue is expected to reach $100 billion globally by 2030, according to WPP Media, representing the fastest-growing ad medium in history.
The big picture: The next phase of AI advertising includes ads created specifically for AI agents.
- Time, in partnership with Mobian, has begun placing sponsored content in text-only versions of its webpages for AI systems to read and retrieve.
The big picture: Each quarter, Axios Media Trends Executive members get access to exclusive reports spotlighting the macro and micro trends shaping the industry, in addition to a comprehensive list of updates across each major platform.
Trends highlighted in our Q2 2026 Advertising Economics report include:
- 📺 TV ads get vertically integrated
- 🎯 Connected TV moves deeper into performance
- 🎟️ Live events drive new ad demand
- 🏢 Agency giants remake themselves for AI era
- 🤝 Buyers circle ad tech
- 🛍️ Product feeds power personalized shopping
- 🎬 Brands bet on social shows
- ✨ Creator marketing's glow-up fuels deal boom
- 🪧 Digital OOH ads to surpass physical by 2029
- 🎮 Gaming ads level up
- 🎙️ Audio's programmatic push
Go deeper: Join Media Trends Executive today to unlock the insights and receive an invite to our live webinar tomorrow at 3pm ET, where we'll discuss the report and answer questions exclusively with members.
7. 🔒 Trump's presidential paywall


For years, Truth Social was President Trump's money-losing megaphone.
- Now his company is charging Wall Street up to $1.2 million a year for a "Truth API" than gives a split-second edge on posts that can — and frequently do — jolt global markets.
Why it matters: Trump has transformed his second term into the most lucrative venture of his entire career, raking in more than $2.2 billion in 2025 from his family crypto empire, legal settlements and various licensing deals.
- Truth API is the logical endpoint of that profiteering: the presidency's unrivaled power to move markets, packaged and sold as a subscription.
💨 Catch up quick: The new real-time feed from Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) went live Aug. 1, delivering Truth Social posts directly to institutional clients in milliseconds.
- Truth API gives trading algorithms a direct, machine-readable feed that they can act on before most investors receive a push alert or refresh their screens.
- A source familiar with the matter tells Axios that access to the platform's 10 top-trending accounts costs between $60,000 and $100,000 per month. Customers seeking a broader range of accounts could pay more.
Zoom in: The product offered a live demonstration of its value almost immediately.
- Hours after Truth API launched, Trump announced that he had canceled massive planned strikes on Iran. Oil prices fell nearly 5% when markets reopened.
🥊 Reality check: TMTG says the posts are already public when they reach the API. What the company is selling is the latency gap — the brief interval between publication and widespread awareness.
- The company explicitly markets the service to firms for which "the cost of a delay in information" is highest.
- A TMTG spokesperson told Axios: "Senate and House Democrats continue to mischaracterize Truth API either out of ideological opposition to free markets or a failure to grasp the distinction between public and nonpublic information."
Disclosure: In 2023, TMTG sued 20 media organizations, including Axios, for defamation. Litigation is ongoing.
8. 🕷️ Spidey swings past Hollywood's biggest franchises


"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" delivered the biggest domestic opening in box office history this past weekend, extending its decadeslong run as one of Hollywood's most reliable characters.
Why it matters: The success stands in contrast to the so-called "superhero fatigue" that's weighed on other comic book franchises since the pandemic.


Zoom in: According to an Axios analysis, the 11 Spider-Man films have generated an average domestic opening of roughly $135.8 million per movie, second only to the four Avengers films' average of $253.4 million.
- Spider-Man outranks other long-running franchises' average opening weekends, including Jurassic Park at $109.1 million, the nine-film Star Wars Skywalker saga at $103.1 million and Harry Potter at $103 million.
- Even excluding "Brand New Day," the previous 10 Spider-Man films averaged about $113.4 million domestically on opening weekend, which would still rank the franchise behind only Avengers.
- Six of the 11 Spider-Man films debuted above $100 million domestically, starting with 2002's "Spider-Man."
🍿 The big picture: "Brand New Day" joins a slate of successful debuts this year that are bringing the box office closer to pre-pandemic levels. Premium screens have played a major role.
- Domestically, theater revenues are pacing 15.9% ahead of the same time last year and 5.2% ahead of 2023, which holds the post-pandemic box office annual record, per Box Office Mojo.
- "Brand New Day" generated more than $11 million across 177 Dolby Cinema locations, marking the format's highest-grossing weekend.
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