Ad market optimism persists despite macro volatility

• Kate Scott-Dawkins, WPP Media global president of business intelligence, said she anticipates needing to increase ad growth projections for the year, as technology-driven tailwinds "are, at this moment, proving to be the more dominant factor in the data" than macroeconomic risks.

How it works: Advertising tends to grow at roughly the same rate as nominal GDP, because revenue drives marketing expenditure.

• The only real exception to that in recent memory was the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• As long as macroeconomic forecasts remain high, so will ad optimism.
• "It's no different than the stock market," said Rich Greenfield, partner and analyst at LightShed Partners. "AI excitement is trumping (pun intended) everything else."

Yes, but: Some experts warn that optimism could be short-lived, given the uncertainty around the war and the Trump administration's economic policies, including tariffs.

• "Depending on how far out one is looking, I would characterize someone expressing positivity as 'willfully optimistic,'" said ad industry analyst and Madison and Wall CEO Brian Wieser.
• While the ad market remains resilient, Wieser argues the low double-digit growth we're seeing now "is not sustainable" and "current economic policies have negative consequences for the industry," including supply chain risks.

Zoom out: Axios asked more than a dozen advertising executives last week at Possible, an annual marketing conference in Miami, why the industry continues to project optimism despite anticipated headwinds. Here's what we heard:

• Fickle economic policies: "I think one of the things that has to be built into every model is that this administration will change its mind," said The Trade Desk CEO Jeff Green, referencing volatile tariff policies. Green said companies aren't projecting as far out into the future as they used to.
• Supply chain lag: Sean Buckley, president of revenue and market strategy at Magnite — the largest independent sell-side advertising platform — said there's a lag as the supply chain disruption hasn't fully caught up with the U.S. economy yet. "The longer this drags on, I do think the more severe the consequences are going to be for the broader economy."
• Fear capitalism: Some ad executives suggested analysts are scared of being too bearish because they overestimated the impact of tariffs on the economy last year. Others say companies are worried about pegging weak forecasts to the Iran war out of fear they'll get dinged by the president.

• Businesses are compartmentalizing: "We're able to separate geopolitical issues and still know what we need to do to drive sales and marketing, and sell goods and services," 3C Ventures CEO Michael Kassan said.
• Consumer sentiment remains strong: "I think people still need stuff and want to be inspired to buy stuff," said Jeff Greenspoon, CEO, Americas, at Kantar.

Flashback: The last time a major conflict threatened global markets was the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war.

• Ad forecasts weakened as the markets took a hit, but both eventually recovered when worst-case scenarios weren't realized. (The conflict never turned into a broader European war. U.S. banks had little direct exposure. The global supply chain was resilient.)

What to watch: If a real ceasefire takes place in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz opens, ad executives believe the industry will remain healthy.

• If it doesn't, companies have some time before severe supply chain disruptions will force them to start waving red flags.

The bottom line: Optimism is a winning strategy, for now.