Axios Media Trends

April 07, 2026
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🇮🇶 Situational awareness: Shelly Kittleson, the American freelance journalist covering the war in Iran who was kidnapped by an Iranian-aligned militia in Baghdad, has been freed, per NYT.
1 big thing: 🥊 Scoop... AP licensing fight
Lee Enterprises, one of the largest independent local newspaper companies, is trying to break its contract with the Associated Press over changes to its coverage, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: AP warned it may start charging interest or cut off its services to Lee newspapers if it stops payments before their deal ends on Dec. 31.
Catch up quick: AP told Axios yesterday it planned to cut dozens of U.S. staff as part of a broader restructuring away from hyperlocal news and more toward video and national topics.
- The outlet's News Guild said later that more than 120 staffers were presented with a buyout offer.
State of play: Lee contacted AP last month about ending its contract on April 26. Its chief content officer Jason Adrians told Axios that the disagreement was over AP's coverage changes.
- "As we have advised the AP for some time, Lee will continue to focus its investments on its core commitment as a community news company, and that's to serve its readers with best-in-class local, statewide and regional news. Our partners must either provide that type of content or help us build a stronger pathway toward it," he said.
📝 The other side: In a letter sent Monday to Adrians, AP senior vice president and general counsel Karen Kaiser said the agreement "expressly provides that AP retains complete editorial discretion over the substance and form of its services and content and does not guarantee any particular volume or mix."
- She said Lee's letter to terminate its contract early, "does not identify any provision of the Agreement that AP has breached, nor does it constitute a notice of breach triggering the contractual cure period."
Zoom out: Over the past few years, AP's business has evolved to become less reliant on local newspapers and more reliant on a broader set of customers, including digital outlets, broadcasters and non-news companies.
- Major newspaper companies today account for less than 10% of AP's overall revenue, AP's global chief revenue officer Kristin Heitmann told Axios on Monday.
🤔 Flashback: Two years ago, two of the largest newspaper groups in the country, USA Today (formerly Gannett) and McClatchy, said they would stop licensing AP's news content, citing costs.
2. ✨ GEO drives new brand-media deals
The rise of chatbots and AI search engines is forcing big brands to invest in new generative engine optimization that favors third-party validation, as opposed to traditional search engine optimization, which can still be gamed with paid media.
Why it matters: The ad market for chatbots and AI search engines is still nascent, which means brands need to rely on strong organic and earned media coverage to reach consumers using AI tools.
- "It's become clear that increasing the amount of times a brand is mentioned on third-party websites helps increase AI visibility," said Noah Greenberg, co-founder and CEO of Stacker, a startup that distributes sponsored content from big brands like DoorDash, Unilever and Redfin to thousands of publishers across the web.
🦾 State of play: OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN, reportedly for "low hundreds of millions," underscores just how much the company is willing to pay to shape the public conversation on AI in the agent era.
- The deal will see TBPN maintain its editorial independence, although there's some skepticism that the startup will receive the same level of engagement from AI firms now that it's owned by OpenAI.
Zoom out: There have been multiple examples in history of similar plays where big brands buy media companies to drive a positive brand halo and, hopefully, customers.
- Plaid, a fintech giant, acquired the popular This Week in Fintech newsletter company last month.
- Robinhood acquired the popular retail investing newsletter and podcast company MarketSnacks in 2019 and later launched a separate, more robust independent news brand called Sherwood.
- Penn Entertainment, a casino operator, acquired Barstool Sports to lure sports bettors.
- HubSpot, a publicly traded sales and marketing software company, acquired The Hustle, an email newsletter and content company targeted at entrepreneurs and small business owners.
📉 Yes, but: Media investments don't always play out the way brands expect them to, in part because the acquisition sometimes inadvertently weakens the media company's core business or brand equity.
- Penn National famously sold Barstool back to its founder Dave Portnoy less than a year after buying it for $1. Barstool couldn't accept gaming ads from rival casinos after it joined Penn.
The big picture: One way big companies can reduce the risk of pricey acquisitions is to build their own newsrooms and create content that generative AI platforms are more likely to pick up.
- "Last summer, data started to show how AI platforms were favoring third-party content and earned media when deciding what to cite. This has been a huge tailwind," Greenberg said.
- Stacker's annual recurring revenue, he noted, has increased from roughly $1 million in January 2024 to nearly $10 million as of last month.
Go deeper ... more below👇
3. HubSpot's media mojo
Media acquisitions tend to fare better when the acquiring company builds the infrastructure necessary to sustain their investments long term.
- HubSpot, the business marketing platform, is one of the best examples of a company that has done this effectively.
💡 State of play: Last week, HubSpot acquired Futurepedia, one of the largest networks of YouTube channels focused on AI and education.
- The deal, which gives HubSpot access to 17 YouTube channels, allows HubSpot to accelerate its own AI-focused content strategy while expanding its creator program.
Catch up quick: After acquiring The Hustle in 2021, HubSpot continued to invest in a slew of niche media brands that cater to business professionals and plug them into a broader media network where it could grow their reach.
- It acquired Mindstream, an AI-focused newsletter company, in 2024. It bought Starter Story, a media company focused on entrepreneurs, earlier this year
🌱 Zoom in: For HubSpot, investing in content is as much about lead generation as it is about growing a healthy business line.
- "We are buying this [Futurepedia] because we know it can generate revenue," HubSpot's head of marketing Jonathan Hunt told Axios.
The bottom line: "Every impression we generate is both brand awareness and potential pipeline for HubSpot's software business," Hunt said.
4. 💥 Scoop: NYT AI flashpoint
The New York Times' editorial union leaders sent a letter to management today arguing its artificial intelligence standards are "woefully inadequate" and too vague, which has led to editorial problems and trust issues.
🤖 Why it matters: AI is one of several sticking points in an ongoing contract dispute between management and the guild.
- A recent incident involving AI-driven plagiarism by a freelance book reviewer has pushed the guild to demand more clarity from management around its AI standards as part of the negotiations, per the letter.
Catch up quick: The latest three-year contract between the Times and its editorial union lapsed Feb. 28.
- Management tried to bring its initial proposal to the table in October, following a brutal public spat over their last contract renewal in 2022. The guild provided feedback on its proposal in January.
🛡️ Zoom in: Isaac Aronow, an associate editor for games and guild bargaining committee member, told Axios the guild wants its contract to include protections against AI use as part of the performance review process.
- It also wants the Times' AI standards to mandate clearer disclosures around the technology's use in its journalism.
- The guild wants further protections around the way Times journalists' name, image and likeness would be protected.
The other side: In a note sent in late February to union members, managing editors Marc Lacey and Carolyn Ryan said management's most recent proposal "added strong language that guarantees that The Times would not create a digital replica of a bargaining member's image, voice or likeness without their consent."
5. 🎸Catalog hot streak


The following data appeared in our exclusive members-only monthly briefing for Media Trends Executive subscribers.
Dealmaking around blockbuster music catalogs is off to a fast start in 2026 with at least four major artist deals already announced and others quietly in negotiations.
- Sales this year include artists like Miranda Lambert, Britney Spears, Quincy Jones and Tina Turner.
💸 Why it matters: Music rights have become an in-demand asset given their steady cash flow and resilience in volatile markets.
- "Life of rights" music contracts generated about 13% annual returns over five years, comparable to the S&P 500 but with more stable year-to-year performance, Cornell University researchers published in February.
📈 Zoom out: While publishing, TV and film have struggled to financially weather the transition from analog to digital, global music industry revenues today are bigger than ever.
- Strong copyright protections and collaboration between labels, artists and distributors have helped the music industry successfully pivot to a lucrative subscription model and rebuild in the digital era.
🪙 Yes, but: There's still a major income imbalance between stars and long tail creators.
- About 88% of streaming tracks are played 1,000 times or less, and therefore do not generate royalties on platforms like Spotify.
💿 What to watch: Music consumption is becoming more fragmented across formats based on genre.
- Jazz leads all genres for physical albums at 21.7%, while children's music relies on video with 10.6% of consumption coming from on-demand video streams.
6. 🎵 Universal Music shares soar on takeover interest
Pershing Square Capital, led by Bill Ackman, has offered to buy Universal Music Group for around $63 billion.
Why it matters: Universal shares rose more than 10% on the news, after having been down more than 20% so far this year.
Context: Universal is one of the world's three largest record labels, with artists such as Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny.
- Ackman has been a sporadic suitor since 2021.
- Pershing Square holds a small stake in Universal, and Ackman was on its board from 2022 until last year.
Zoom in: Per terms of the proposal, Universal by year-end would merge with a Pershing Square SPARC Holdings and shift its stock listing to the NYSE from Amsterdam. Michael Ovitz would serve as board chair.
- The $60 billion figure makes a lot of assumptions, including the future trading value of Universal stock and the company's ability to sell its stake in Spotify for €1.5 billion.
7. 🍿 Theaters flex strongest run since COVID


The 2026 box office is off to its strongest start since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising hopes in Hollywood that theatrical moviegoing has staying power in the streaming era.
🎟️ Why it matters: Success at the box office gives studios and distributors more leverage to preserve theatrical release windows, a key revenue driver for the industry.
- The tentative agreement between studios and the Writers Guild of America announced last week has fueled optimism that Hollywood can avoid future strikes that would again disrupt the theatrical pipeline.
🍄 The latest: "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" delivered the biggest domestic opening of the year, generating $191 million in North America and $373 million globally.
- The sequel now ranks among the top animated openings ever and is the second biggest debut for a video game movie, behind 2023's "The Super Mario Bros. Movie."
State of play: 2026 has already seen a slew of strong performances across genres, including original titles, animation and franchises.
- 🧑🚀 "Project Hail Mary" previously held the biggest domestic opening at $81 million and has garnered $421 million globally.
- 🦫 "Hoppers," Pixar's best-performing original debut since "Coco," has grossed $332 million worldwide.
- 😱 "Scream 7" has surpassed $200 million globally, becoming the franchise's highest-grossing installment.
Yes, but: Analysts caution that the box office is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs as streaming reshapes viewing habits.
Between the lines: Family-friendly films are yielding the highest success at the box office.
- This year, 26 PG-rated films are slated for release, up from 18 in 2024 when five of the six top movies globally were PG, analyst Scott Mendelson wrote for Puck.
👀 What to watch: A slate of franchise hits could help sustain the momentum, including "The Mandalorian & Grogu," "The Devil Wears Prada 2," "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," "Avengers: Doomsday" and "Dune: Part Three."
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