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Media Deals

A line chart depicting the ratio of average sale prices to revenue for music catalogs from 2006 to 2029. The ratio peaked at around 16x in 2018 and has generally declined since. It is projected to stabilize at approximately 15.1x by 2029.

Music catalogs' ratio of average sale prices to&nbsprevenue

Data: Shot Tower Capital; Note: Excludes 10 sales of catalogs valued over $200m; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Dealmaking around blockbuster music catalogs is off to a fast start in 2026, with at least four major artist deals already announced and others quietly in negotiations.

Why it matters: Music rights have become an in-demand asset given their steady cash flow and resilience in volatile markets.

"Music really does hold value in the face of an economy that is in flux," Alter, Kendrick & Baron founding partner Lisa Alter tells Axios.

By the numbers: Music publishing multiples have risen from 8.3x in 2010 to 17.9x by 2020, according to a report from Shot Tower Capital published last year. That's excluding 10 sales of catalogs valued over $200 million.

Catalogs this year are projected to sell at roughly 16x annual revenue, per that same report.

"Life of rights" music contracts generated about 13% annual returns over five years, comparable to the S&P 500 but with more stable year-to-year performance, Cornell University researchers published in February.

State of play: "This year is off to one of the strongest starts that we've had," added Alter, who has handled billions of dollars in catalog transactions.

Miranda Lambert sold her complete back catalog of songs to Sony Music Publishing Nashville and Domain Capital Group and included a go-forward publishing deal.

Britney Spears sold rights to her catalog to Primary Wave, which also owns stakes in the work of Bob Marley, Prince, Stevie Nicks and Whitney Houston.

Quincy Jones' estate sold select music rights, including recorded music and publishing assets, to HarbourView and partnered for name, image and likeness (NIL) rights.

Tina Turner's NIL and a majority share of her music catalog rights were acquired by Pophouse Entertainment, with BMG remaining a significant shareholder.

A chart shows select music catalogs sold from 2020 to 2026. 74 sales are charted. The most active year for sales was 2021, with 20 catalogs sold. Notable sales include Bob Dylan, Taylor Swift, Stevie Nicks and Michael Jackson.

2026-04-02-mte-catalogs

Data: Axios research; Note: Deals may include NIL, publishing and other rights; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

The big picture: An influx of capital has transformed what was once a relationship-driven and opaque business into a more sophisticated market.

A decade ago, only a handful of investors were active in music. Today, pension funds, private equity firms and asset managers are all involved.

Last year, Warner Music Group and Bain Capital launched a $1.2 billion joint venture and recently increased it. HarbourView secured debt financing led by KKR. In 2022, Brookfield Asset Management backed Primary Wave in a deal valued at over $2 billion.

"The demand feeds on itself," said Spencer Klein, global chair of M&A practice at Morrison Foerster. "You've got a tremendous amount of capital flowing into the space, which continues to drive the multiples higher and continues to bring more artists' catalogs onto the market."

Between the lines: Investors are drawn to music's predictable, long-term cash flow. The shift to streaming has allowed catalogs to generate steady income over decades and made it easier to model future earnings.

Halloran Farkas + Kittila's Bradfield Biggers said PE firms "out of London, Berlin and Switzerland are trying to invest into North American catalogs because of its richness, depth and heritage and consistency."

Deal structures have gotten more complex with hybrids of debt and equity, multiple investors and bundled rights.

Reality check: Not all players have had a smooth ride.

Hipgnosis faced turbulence after a rapid buying spree during the pandemic. The Blackstone-backed firm has since rebranded to Recognition Music Group.

Zoom in: Some buyers take an active role, seeking to grow assets through more licensing, marketing and brand extensions.

Primary Wave CEO Larry Mestel said in 2022 it "quadrupled the earnings stream of the [Houston] estate through a lot of low-hanging fruit," including a "Higher Love" remix. It has since released a biopic, new albums and slot machines.

Pophouse, the founding investor of ABBA Voyage in London, is planning a virtual concert for KISS after acquiring the NIL rights in 2024.

What to watch: Dealmaking is ripe between publishers and service providers in the music economy.

This week, Warner Music Group agreed to acquire music platform Revelator. Last month, Primary Wave agreed to acquire Kobalt.

BMG parent Bertelsmann is reportedly in talks to buy Concord, which had acquired music distributor Stem last year.

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Music catalog sales surge as investors seek steady returns

An influx of capital has transformed what was once a relationship-driven and opaque business into a more sophisticated market.

Dealmaking

Media

Dealmaking around blockbuster <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="music catalogs" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/20/music-catalog-sales" data-vars-content-id="38f87dae-f432-4bbc-976e-5afc0e128e10" data-vars-headline="Music catalog sales surge as investors seek steady returns" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/20/music-catalog-sales" target="_self">music catalogs</a> is off to a fast start in 2026, with at least four major artist deals already announced and others quietly in negotiations.Why it matters: Music rights have become an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="in-demand asset" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/01/music-deals-queen-catalog-billion" data-vars-content-id="38f87dae-f432-4bbc-976e-5afc0e128e10" data-vars-headline="Music catalog sales surge as investors seek steady returns" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/01/music-deals-queen-catalog-billion" target="_self">in-demand asset</a> given their steady cash flow and resilience in volatile markets.

Music catalog sales surge as investors seek steady returns

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