Axios Markets

December 12, 2024
It's Thursday — we're back with a look at rising poverty for single mothers, and how next year's tax reforms could squeeze them even harder.
- 🍳 Plus, the return of eggflation, and the curious case of a really, really confusing government form.
All in 885 words, a 3.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Rising poverty, falling benefits


A broad measure of poverty for families headed by single mothers rose last year and is now back to 2018 levels, per a new analysis of Census Bureau data from the National Women's Law Center.
Why it matters: Cuts to safety net programs for the poor are on the table next year as the GOP looks to pay for an extension of the 2017 Trump tax law.
- That move is more likely to benefit higher earners and corporations — and hurt lower-income people.
How they did it: The center looked at both the government's official poverty measure and the supplemental one, a more detailed way of figuring out how people get by.
- It takes into account the cost of housing, as well as both cash income and benefits like tax credits and SNAP (federal food assistance).
By the numbers: For households led by single mothers the supplemental measure increased to 29% in 2023 from 27% in 2022.
- That's more than 2.7 million families.
- The rate for children also increased to 14% last year from 12% in 2022.
- There are big variations between demographics, the analysis finds. Some 7.4% of white, non-Hispanic children lived in impoverished households, compared with 20%, 22% and 14% for Black, Hispanic and Asian children, respectively.
- The supplemental poverty rate for children soared after plunging in 2021, following the end of pandemic-era supports for families.
Zoom in: The official poverty measure, which doesn't account for benefits, actually edged down in 2023 to 11.1% from 11.5%, as Americans saw real gains in household income.
- But for women it rose by 0.3 percentage points, per the Law Center analysis.
Zoom out: Families with children headed up by a single parent face enormous headwinds in the U.S., where child care is increasingly expensive and there are few social supports for parents.
- That's especially true for mothers. The official poverty rate for families with children headed by a single woman was double the rate for those headed by a single man.
What to watch: Vice President-elect JD Vance wants to increase the child tax credit — but it's unclear if that would end up benefiting the poorest families because of the way it was structured.
The intrigue: House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) last month raised the prospect of work requirements for Medicaid, as well as a provision that would check eligibility more than once a year.
- Those types of moves would likely result in fewer people getting health care coverage, as the challenges of keeping up with paperwork and bureaucracy tend to create a drop-off in enrollment.
2. Egg prices are sizzling again


Eggflation is back. Over the longer term, however, eggs are still cheap compared to their natural companion, bacon.
Why it matters: Breakfast is the most important meal of the day!
By the numbers: Egg prices rose to $3.65 per dozen in November, up 8% from October and up 71% year-on-year — even if they're still 24% below the record high of $4.82 set in January 2023.
- Both the big 2022 price increase and the current uptick are largely a function of bird flu, which has severely reduced the number of laying hens in the country.
- After becoming the poster child for inflation in 2022, eggs are now rivaling gas prices as the first place people look for a gauge of whether prices are rising, steady or falling.
Between the lines: How you feel about bacon and egg prices depends in large part on what your baseline is. Egg prices were pretty low from 2016 until late 2021, and compared with those levels they've risen dramatically.
- For people who first became familiar with egg and bacon prices in the 1970s or 1980s, however, it's bacon, rather than eggs, that looks notably expensive.
- That might partially explain Donald Trump's obsession with bacon prices.
Fun fact: Between January 1980 and December 1988, America experienced an extended period of egg deflation, with egg prices falling by 5% even as the broader Consumer Price Index rose by 55%.
The bottom line: Egg prices tend to fall after they rise. Bacon prices, by contrast, are on a much steadier upward trend.
3. Green cards become a little less treacherous
The notorious Question 61 on the green card application form, about "the public charge ground of inadmissibility," has finally been fixed.
Why it matters: People filling out the new I-485 form are much less likely to inadvertently perjure themselves, which would open them to the possibility of harsh penalties.
Zoom in: The old form looked like it was asking whether you were inadmissible on the grounds that you were likely at some future point to become dependent on government assistance — a public charge.
- But it wasn't, and the resulting confusion about how to answer put people at risk.
By the numbers: The new form is 24 pages (up from 20), and the instructions for filling it out are 42 pages (down from 44). The new form also incorporates what used to be a separate form, I-864W.
- Question 61 — which took up two lines of the old form — is now a whole set of questions, from 56 to 66, which take up more than two pages.
- Those questions, however, are much easier to answer.
The bottom line: The new form was supposed to arrive in fiscal 2023, and instead has now arrived in fiscal 2025. Still, better late than never!
Thanks to Ben Berkowitz for editing and Anjelica Tan for copy editing. We'll see you tomorrow!
Sign up for Axios Markets



