If you're waiting for the commercial real estate apocalypse to hit, it might be a while — maybe forever, Emily writes.

Why it matters: Commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, is slumping — and the regional banks that lend to the space aren't looking so hot either — leading to concerns about a "doom loop."

• "There's definitely been an overreaction in the market about the relationship between banks and CRE [commercial real estate]," said Kevin Fagan, a senior director and head of CRE economic analysis at Moody’s Analytics.

Catch up fast: Market watchers were spooked by Federal Reserve data showing that the holders of commercial real estate loans are a highly concentrated group — with small and regional U.S. banks (those not in the top 25) collectively holding 67%.

Reality check: That eye-popping number turns out to be a bit misleading. Under the hood, the situation is more nuanced, as detailed in two reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association and Moody's Analytics.

• The 67% figure includes loans backed by traditional commercial real estate — apartment complexes, office buildings, retail space — but it also includes construction loans, loans backing farmland, or loans to owner-occupied properties like two-family houses.
• (You can read more in the footnotes to this report from the Fed if you want to nerd out on this.)

State of play: The traditional commercial real estate lending market is incredibly diverse. That means borrowers should have options when it comes time to refinance.

• Banks — large and small — account for 39% of outstanding loans, per Moody's Analytics.
• Regional banks hold just 14% of outstanding loans.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also make a lot of these loans as do life insurance companies. (The chart above has the breakdown.)

Zoom out: Regardless of the lender mix, there’s sure to be pain in the commercial real estate market in the coming years — likely driven by growing distress in the office building segment.

• Office loans represent about 17% of outstanding commercial real estate debt, as calculated by the MBA.
• Rents aren't what they used to be, and building values are going to fall.
• With a glut of loans coming due soon, some will surely default. Morgan Stanley estimates that $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is set to mature over the next two years.

But, but, but: "They're not systemic risks to the overall economy," says Fagan. More on that below...

Commercial real estate underwriting standards improved after the global financial crisis — similar to what happened in the residential mortgage market.

State of play: Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are much lower now, as the chart above shows.

What that means: Borrowers have more equity (and proportionally smaller loans) on their properties.

• That's going to help when it's time to refinance these loans. Borrowers may still have a shot at affording new loans, despite lower building values and higher interest rates.
• And when defaults do happen, lower LTVs should mean smaller losses for the lenders.

🚗 Biden administration to propose new climate rules for vehicles; would mean two-thirds of new cars would be electric by 2032. (NYT)

🏦 Big banks that helped First Republic now plan to boost their own reserves. (Bloomberg)

🏀 Air Jordans sell for record $2.2 million. (Axios)

🏡 New suburban housing war. (Axios)

For a stark example of the decoupling dynamic that's reshaping the global economy, just look at the flows of money into semiconductor manufacturing, Matt writes.

Why it matters: In recent years, companies and political leaders have increasingly sought to move production to countries they are aligned with politically, in order to make their supply chains less vulnerable.

• This is especially true for strategically sensitive industries, like computer chip (aka semiconductor) manufacturing, that are crucial to national defense.

What they're saying: "When considering investment in strategic sectors, like semiconductors [foreign direct investment] flows are increasingly concentrated among countries that are geopolitically aligned," per the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook released yesterday.

Hedge fund managers get a lot of bad press, Matt writes.

• So, we here at Axios Markets wanted to point out an extremely generous gift that a top American financier recently made to a struggling New England nonprofit organization.

Driving the news: Ken Griffin, the head of the hedge fund and trading giant Citadel — not to mention a GOP super donor — just dashed off a $300 million unrestricted gift to Harvard University's Faculty of Arts and Sciences.

🤔 Between the lines: Harvard doesn't appear to be in desperate need of cash.

• Its endowment — the nation's largest among universities — weighs in at $51 billion.
• Or as trader and #fintwits personality Tom Hearden put it:

Where it stands: Griffin, a 1989 graduate of Harvard, has donated more than a half-billion to the university, including a gift of $150 million in 2014.

• And now his name will live on. The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences will be renamed the Harvard Kenneth C. Griffin Graduate School of Arts and Sciences.