Axios Markets

November 03, 2023
π° Happy Friday! Brace yourself for the jobs report in one hour, and don't forget to change your clocks this weekend.
Today's newsletter is 1,224 words, 5 minutes.
1 big thing: Guilty
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg via Getty Images
After only five hours of deliberations, a jury found FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried guilty last night on all seven counts of fraud and conspiracy charged against him, Axios' Crystal Kim and Brady Dale report from the courthouse in New York.
Why it matters: The verdict marks a stunning β and fast β fall from grace for the 31-year-old, once viewed as a leading light of the crypto industry and one of its most reputable players.
- Instead, the bankruptcy of FTX and subsequent criminal charges against him decisively ended the crypto boom that had captured the public's imagination and gutted the industry's reputation.
- If he gets the maximum sentence on each count, SBF faces more than 100 years in prison.
What they're saying: "Sam Bankman-Fried perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history β a multibillion-dollar scheme designed to make him the King of Crypto," U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a statement last night.
- "This case is also a warning to every fraudster who thinks they're untouchable, that their crimes are too complex for us to catch, that they are too powerful to prosecute, or that they are clever enough to talk their way out of it if caught."
- Attorneys for SBF said in a statement that Bankman-Fried "maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him."
Zoom in: The verdict comes nearly one year since SBF's crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy after $8 billion in customer deposits went missing.
- SBF testified at trial for more than two days βΒ one of just three witnesses on the defense side βΒ and he came off as condescending and evasive under cross-examination, as Axios reported.
- Prosecutors called more than a dozen witnesses to the stand, the NYT points out. Several were former friends and colleagues who had already pleaded guilty to the fraud.
What's next: Judge Lewis Kaplan set SBF's sentencing for March 28, 2024. He has a second trial on four additional charges slated for earlier that month.
- SBF can appeal the verdict, but not until sentencing.
2. Catch up quick
π€ Elon Musk tells British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that AI will put an end to work. (BBC)
π Jeff Bezos plans to move to Miami to be near his parents and his space firm Blue Origin's Cape Canaveral operations. (Reuters)
π’ Maersk cuts 10,000 jobs; sees global trade weak through 2026. (Bloomberg)
3. π€ Higher, longer, more productive

There are hopeful signs that the U.S. is adjusting to the high-wage, high-interest rate economy that's become a post-pandemic reality, Matt writes.
Driving the news: Fresh data yesterday showed U.S. labor productivity growth jumped by a 4.7% annualized rate in the third quarter. That's the fastest β outside a recessionary period when productivity typically spikes β since 2003.
- It was the second-straight hefty increase in productivity growth, following a 3.6% rise in the second quarter.
Why it matters: Increasing productivity is the key to establishing a virtuous cycle of growth in the face of tight labor markets, inflation, and high-interest rates, that is, the higher-for-longer world.
Be smart: Productivity is measured in output β that is, GDP β per hour worked. So, this big productivity number is kind of another way of saying the third quarter GDP surge we just saw came without a parallel surge in hours worked.
Yes, but: Some economists seem skeptical that the recent uptick in productivity will last.
- If it does, it's hard to overstate what an important shift this would be for the U.S. economy, where productivity has languished for decades.
The big picture: Productivity growth is the secret sauce that keeps an economy from becoming a never-ending tug of war between workers, business owners and consumers over who benefits from growth.
- That's because when productivity goes up, the economic pie gets larger, so workers and owners both get bigger slices at the same time.
- Consumers benefit as well because productivity gains help hold down price increases, improving standards of living.
What they're saying: It makes sense that the rapid growth in wages seen in recent years would lead to the productivity increases we are now seeing.
- "When labor markets are tight with strong wage growth, it is more difficult to find and thus more expensive to hire workers," wrote economists with Deutsche Bank in a note yesterday.
- "In that environment, firms are incentivized to substitute more capital for labor in the production process, as well as to use existing inputs in a more efficient way, leading to productivity gains over time," the bank adds.
The bottom line: Nobody knows if this productivity boom will stick, but if you listen to what, say, Starbucks is saying β see below β it sounds like it could.
4. βοΈ Starbucks is part of the productivity puzzle


A burst of productivity helped drive Starbucks profits sharply higher last quarter, the company said yesterday.
Why it matters: Starbucks provides a case study in how the high-wage, tight labor market could be fueling productivity-enhancing investments, leading to bigger profits and higher wages, Matt writes.
Driving the news: The coffee giant crushed expectations. With sales and profits beating Wall Street's forecast, its stock jumped more than 9%, posting its best gain in over a year.
Flashback: Last fall the company announced a plan to invest $450 million to overhaul operations, including new workstations aimed at speeding the time it takes to make iced drinks, the AP reported.
- This quarter executives spotlighted increased deliveries of new "portable cold foamers" to all U.S. company-operated stores, which "enhanced productivity in the fourth quarter and lessened the strain on our partners," according to CEO Laxman Narasimhan.
- Starbucks delivered over 550 new nugget ice machines to shops.
- The company also says that take-home income for its workers is up on average 20% over last year.
What they're saying: "The investments we've made are fueling growth: investments in our partners, in wages, in training, in our new store and equipment," Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told analysts on the post-earnings conference call.
- "It's allowing us to be more efficient in how we serve the customer. So, that's the biggest driver in the quarter."
Go deeper: Starbucks unveils new stores in "triple shot reinvention" plan
5. Chinese women pressured to go home
Chinese President Xi Jinping at an event in Beijing. Photo: Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images
"We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture."β Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at the closing meeting of the National Women's Congress in Beijing on Monday.
China's leaders are putting more pressure on women to curb their ambitions, and return to their traditional roles inside the home, Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and Rebecca Falconer report.
Why it matters: In addition to an economic slump, China is also facing a long-term demographic crisis, which would constrain its economic potential over the long term.
Zoom out: In its early decades, the Chinese Communist Party bolstered its revolutionary credentials by emphasizing women's equality both inside and outside the home.
- But the party's top ranks have long been male-dominated, and in recent years Beijing has cracked down on Chinese feminists and the country's own #MeToo movement.
- At this year's women's Congress, officials "downplayed gender equality," the New York Times reports.
Be smart: "Sending women back to the home and out of the work force is also convenient at a time when China faces its biggest economic challenge in four decades," the NYT reports.
- Policymakers see domestic labor by women as a possible way "to improve a social welfare system that is severely underdeveloped and unable to support a rapidly aging population."
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Today's Axios Markets was edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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