Workers in the U.S. are running in place — feeling stuck in jobs with dimmed prospects of advancement and seeing fewer opportunities to jump ship for something better.

Why it matters: It's a sharp contrast to the heady days of 2022 — when employees were quitting their jobs at record high rates, open roles proliferated and the possibility of a higher paycheck always seemed just around the corner.

The big picture: Employers are sitting tight, says Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job site Glassdoor. Companies aren't making big changes to hiring strategy. That means "fewer opportunities for workers to climb the career ladder," he says.

• They're still plugging away at the same role they've had for years without the opportunity to move up internally or at a new company.
• 65% of the 3,400 professionals surveyed by Glassdoor last month said they feel stuck in their current role.
• "As workers feel stuck, pent-up resentment boils under the surface," Zhao writes in a report out yesterday.

State of play: By one broad measure — a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.1% — the job market looks good. Under the hood, though, things are stagnating.

• The rate at which workers quit their jobs in September was 1.9% — the lowest since June 2020 and, outside of covid, a level last seen in 2015.
• It's well off the highs of the Great Resignation a few years ago.

By the numbers: The number of job openings in September was 7.4 million — a decline of 1.9 million from the previous year, though still higher than in 2019.

• And while layoffs are still low, that's cold comfort if you want a new job or you're just starting out in the working world.
• An increasing share of those who do job hop are settling for lower paychecks. Some 17% of job switchers this year took a pay cut, compared to 14% in 2019, according to data from Glassdoor.

Zoom out: That the labor market just a few years ago was so exceptional — and worker leverage so high — makes today's stagnating job market even more of a bitter pill.

Zoom in: Workers in the tech industry likely feel this more than most — throughout the 2010s there was a war for talent in tech and in the post-pandemic period hiring boomed even more, making wages soar.

• Employers were even hoarding workers at one point.
• Those days are long gone. Employee satisfaction with career opportunities in information technology has declined by 7.5% this year from 2022, according to an analysis of Glassdoor reviews.
• "Tech is the poster child of the problems we're seeing right now in the job market," Zhao says. "There are a lot of people who feel like that promise once offered to them no longer applies."

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Another bummer for American workers: Opportunities to work remotely are flatlining.

Why it matters: As worker leverage declines, companies like Amazon and Starbucks are pushing workers back to the office.

• The decline in remote or hybrid opportunities lines up with the overall decline in job openings (see above), particularly in the sectors most likely to offer work from home.

By the numbers: The share of jobs listed on Indeed offering remote or hybrid work hit 7.8% at the end of October, according to a report from Indeed's Hiring Lab published yesterday.

• That is down from a high of 10.4% in February 2022.
• LinkedIn's data shows a similar number — 8% of the roles on offer on the platform were remote in October.

Friction point: People still really want flexible jobs.

• "Remote and hybrid jobs continue to attract the majority of applications," Kory Kantenga, LinkedIn's head of economics for the Americas, tells Axios in an email.

Zoom out: The mismatch between demand for flexible jobs (high) and the availability of those roles (low) is adding to stagnation in the job market.

The bottom line: Workers who have flexible jobs are holding on. It's similar to how homeowners with low mortgage rates are locked into their homes since they can't afford to buy a new home at a higher rate — or don't want to give up a good thing.

• "If you are in a remote job right now, you're probably not going to be able to find another one that meets all your other criteria," Zhao of Glassdoor says. "You feel locked into that job. It's kind of like a 3% mortgage rate."

President-elect Trump's vow to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could eliminate workers from U.S. industries already projected to face labor shortages.

The big picture: Although undocumented laborers make up a relatively small percentage of the total U.S. workforce, they have outsized roles in fields like construction, agriculture and hospitality.

Zoom in: The construction and agricultural workforces had the highest proportions of undocumented workers as of 2022, per an October report from the American Immigration Council.

• The undocumented workforce accounted for 39% of plasterers and stucco masons; 36% of drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers; 36% of roofers; and 31% of painters and paperhangers.
• 28% of graders and sorters for agricultural products were undocumented, as well as 25% of miscellaneous agricultural workers.

Zoom out: What happens to immigration in the Trump administration is a big wild card for the labor market and the economy overall, as fewer workers could lead to wage increases and put upward pressure on inflation.

• With construction workers so at risk — more deportations could push home prices even higher.

Mass deportations would bring a heavy human toll.

• About 4 million mixed-status families could be separated, affecting 8.5 million U.S. citizens with undocumented family members.
• It could slash the incomes of their households by an average of nearly 63%, or about $51,000 per year, the report found.

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