Axios Markets

February 12, 2025
🐪 Hump day! We take a look at who wins when the U.S. government stops enforcing rules against corporate corruption.
- Plus: Farm country fears the effects of tariffs and USAID cuts, and speaking of tariffs, gold keeps soaring.
All in 940 words, a 3½-minute read.
1 big thing: A pause on fighting corruption
The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act stands at the center of the global fight against bribery and corruption, and for the time being, it has been largely neutralized by Donald Trump.
Why it matters: The president's executive order pausing FCPA enforcement may act as a green light for corporate executives, both foreign and domestic, who have a high risk appetite and few ethical scruples about bribes and other forms of corruption.
- In turn, that risks putting law-abiding corporations at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to procuring government contracts.
Context: Congress passed the act in 1977 to root out the "foreign corporate payments problem," as law professor and FCPA expert Mike Koehler wrote in 2012.
- At its heart, the law prohibits giving "anything of value" to foreign officials to influence their behavior or secure business advantages.
The intrigue: While Trump's executive order claims that "American citizens and businesses" have suffered from FCPA enforcement, nine of the 10 biggest FCPA prosecutions have been against foreign companies, including Airbus, Siemens and Ericsson.
- Public U.S. corporations are subject to a vast range of anti-corruption laws, all of which continue to be enforced, which means weakening the FCPA might embolden foreign corporations more than domestic ones.
- "I don't think that non-American firms feel that they are as constrained as American firms by a lot of the American corporate governance statutes," Duke University law professor Rachel Brewster tells Axios.
Yes, but: The FCPA remains the law of the land, and the order is explicitly couched in terms of "eliminating excessive barriers to American commerce abroad."
- That suggests the Justice Department might pause enforcement for U.S. companies while keeping foreign corporations in its crosshairs, which Brewster describes as "a kind of legal industrial policy" where the DOJ concentrates its prosecutions on foreign firms in general, and Chinese firms in particular.
- The FCPA "could be a pretty powerful tool," Brewster says, in terms of the U.S. arsenal of retaliation against foreign countries engaged in a trade war.
- Michael DeBernardis, an FCPA attorney at Hughes Hubbard & Reed in Washington, agrees: "It wouldn't shock me to see the FCPA focused on non-U.S. companies."
Between the lines: DeBernardis expects that the most likely companies to try to take advantage of the pause will be U.S. companies involved in industries often faced with solicitation of bribes.
- While large public companies are unlikely to change their ways, private companies might be willing to take bigger risks. "I could certainly see certain companies or higher risk industries changing their calculation as to what the risk of an FCPA violation is based on this," DeBernardis says.
Flashback: Trump himself faced FCPA constraints when he attempted to build a hotel in Azerbaijan over a decade ago, per reporting from the New Yorker's Adam Davidson.
- As he was finalizing the deal in 2012, Trump went on CNBC to complain that the FCPA was "a horrible law and it should be changed."
The bottom line: While Trump didn't get his wish during his first term in office, things seem to be going very differently this time around.
2. Tariffs and USAID cuts hit home
For early signs of how China's retaliatory tariffs and the freeze on U.S. Agency for International Development programs are hitting the farming industry, take a look at Illinois, reports Monica Eng for Axios Chicago.
Why it matters: Chinese tariffs on farm machinery that kicked in this week could hurt sales for American companies including Caterpillar, which recently moved its headquarters to Texas but still has 12,000 employees in Illinois.
- USAID's purchases of U.S. crops for foreign aid — which totaled $2 billion last year — have already stopped under Trump's executive order, according to Reuters.
- It's one state of many, and tariff impacts vary widely from state to state, but it's a good illustration of what happens when geopolitical policy hits home.
Context: Illinois exported $13.7 billion in agricultural goods in 2023, according to the Illinois Farm Bureau.
- Bureau officials said they're still assessing the potential effect of the USAID freeze on Illinois farms.
What they're saying: "Our farmers simply cannot afford the uncertainty of a potential trade war," Illinois Farm Bureau president Brian Duncan said in a statement.
- "Farm income has declined for a second straight year, and we know from experience that farmers and rural communities are the first to suffer from retaliatory tariffs."
- While China's tariffs on U.S. cars and liquid gas "will likely be limited" they "could have a larger impact on Illinois farmers and producers of agriculture equipment," Mark Denzler, the president of the Illinois Manufacturers' Association, tells Axios.
- "We are committed to working in partnership with federal officials to find a solution that demands accountability while allowing for manufacturing growth in Illinois and across the United States."
Reality check: China has not yet extended tariffs to agricultural products as it did in 2018, crippling U.S. soybean exports, including from Illinois, the nation's top soybean producer.
The intrigue: U.S. counties that voted for Trump could be hurt most by China's tariffs, per a new Brookings Institution analysis.
Want more in-depth reporting from around America? Check out Axios Local, now in more than 30 cities nationwide.
3. Gold makes some gaudy gains


Gold futures hit another record high this week, breaking $2,900 for the first time, as tariff fears fuel a flight to what Bloomberg calls "the everything hedge."
By the numbers: Gold's up 12% in 2025, outpacing gains in most asset classes by a fair bit.
Thanks to Ben Berkowitz for editing and Anjelica Tan for copy editing. Until tomorrow!
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