Which states may feel the brunt of Trump's tariffs
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Businesses in some states — many near the country's northern and southern borders — may feel President Trump's tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China most acutely, per a new estimate shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Trump and others view tariffs as political cudgels for extracting concessions from targeted countries. But they're also likely to make stuff more expensive as companies pass higher costs along to everyday Americans.
Catch up quick: Trump on Saturday imposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy imports, plus issued new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
- Trump on Monday delayed his planned Mexico and Canada tariffs for a month after striking border security deals.
Driving the news: The tariffs as issued Saturday would have an estimated $232.7 billion national impact, per economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide and based on trade from January to November 2024.
- That impact would be largest for businesses in Texas ($47.1 billion), California ($32.6 billion) and Michigan ($27.8 billion).
How it works: The estimates are based on census data for foreign imports and reflect "the composition of current trade based on existing company-to-company relationships," Trade Partnership Worldwide president Daniel S. Anthony tells Axios.
What they're saying: "Canada and Mexico account for over 90% of all Montana imports, versus just 5% for Hawaii," Anthony says. "So virtually anything that Montana companies import from the world could be subject to new tariffs in the immediate future."
- "Similarly, states where Canadian energy imports are large see reduced impacts from the lower energy tariff. But even 10% is a huge cost when you look at a state like Illinois that imports tens of billions of dollars annually in Canadian crude oil."
Caveat: Tariffs may lead to less trade overall, Anthony notes — meaning past data isn't necessarily indicative of future tariff effects.
What's next: Trump is having ongoing conversations with his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau, who bashed U.S. tariffs as a shocking and perplexing betrayal of a longtime ally and promised retaliation.
