The Texas primaries this month offered Democrats some hope that Republicans' mid-decade redistricting last year won't net the GOP all five seats the party wants to gain in the U.S. House.

Why it matters: Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, kicked off a nationwide redistricting war for control of the House — but the party leaned on past gains with Hispanic voters in South Texas that are showing signs of cracking.

The big picture: The Democratic Party is pouring resources into four races in majority-Latino districts that, if won by Democrats, would result in a net gain of just one seat for Republicans.

• In those districts, Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout, but experts cautioned that it's unclear whether Democrats can carry that momentum into November.

Zoom in: Out of five seats the GOP redrew as pickup opportunities, two (Districts 9 and 32) in the Houston and Dallas areas appear ripe for Republican victories. Democrats believe they can hold onto another two seats in South Texas (Districts 28 and 34), where the incumbents are running for reelection.

• The fifth redrawn seat, the San Antonio-area 35th District, features primary runoffs on both sides. Democrats aim to make it a battleground.

Plus: The 15th District in South Texas is held by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg), but Democrats think they have a strong candidate in Tejano star Bobby Pulido.

State of play: There's "no way" the GOP can take all five seats they targeted, Jon Taylor, political science department chair at UT San Antonio, tells Axios. "Especially in what's appearing to be a wave election and a backlash by Latino voters."

Yes, but: Democrats have fallen behind on fundraising in some districts like the 15th and 35th.

The other side: "Democrats can try to bluff their way through the headlines, but they don't have credible recruits, they're burning through cash, and they're scrambling just to protect their own vulnerable incumbents," Christian Martinez, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, tells Axios in a statement.

⬇️ Read on below to learn more about the districts.

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District 9

This Houston seat could go to the GOP for the first time in 30 years. Incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is running in an adjacent district.

State of play: State Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park) and former Harris County Judge candidate Alexandra Mealer will face each other in a Republican primary runoff on May 26.

• The winner will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez and Independent Roy Morales in November.

District 15

De La Cruz has represented this district since 2023 and is the first Republican to have ever won the district. Democrats want it back.

What they're saying: "If there's going to be any breakthrough for Democrats, I think 15 is probably their best bet," says Taylor, with UT San Antonio.

Yes, but: The Cook Political Report rates this district as going likely Republican.

District 28

The seat held by longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar was made more friendly to Republicans, but Democrats are confident he can beat Republican challenger Tano Tijerina in November.

Context: Cuellar was indicted on conspiracy and bribery charges in 2024. But he won reelection that year and was later pardoned by Trump.

• Republicans acknowledge this will be the most difficult of the five redrawn districts to flip.

District 34

Democrats believe five-term U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez can win reelection.

• He faces Republican Eric Flores in November. The GOP thinks Flores is a strong candidate after trouncing former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores in the primary.

The other districts

The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo carnival closed early Saturday night after fights broke out in the carnival area, causing crowds to run, officials said. (Chron)

🍎 Houston-area schools are becoming inundated by requests from parents seeking paperwork for their private school voucher applications. (Houston Public Media)

🏗️ Construction of a $130 million condo building in Galveston is six weeks ahead of schedule. (Houston Business Journal)

🎶 Enjoy free family friendly performances at Sugar Land's Spring Break on the Square.

• 11am-1:30pm Tuesday through Thursday.

😋 Take your 10-and-up kids to Mrs. Krishnan's Party, a play that's part theater and part interactive cooking show, at the Asia Society of Texas.

• Tickets start at $29. 7:30pm Tuesday through Saturday, with 2pm showings Saturday and Sunday.

🧱 Give your child or teen a chance to shine at the Spring Break LEGO building competition in Spring.

• Entry is $7. 10am Wednesday.

🛍️ Shop around at the Spring Pop-Up Market at Saint Arnold Brewing.

• 2-8pm Friday.

🏐 Ditch the kids and play recreational or competitive sand volleyball with Houston Sports and Social Club at The Decoy.

• Entry is $15. 6:30pm Friday.