Houston's energy industry is poised to benefit from the war in Iran amid supply chain disruptions, a Rice University economist tells Axios, even as Houston-area consumers face pain at the pump.

Why it matters: The region's engineering and logistics expertise "is set up to be able to flex ... and capitalize where possible on those shifts," says Kenneth Medlock, energy and resource economist at Rice's Baker Institute. "It's why this region, economically, has been so vibrant for such a long time."

The big picture: With the U.S. and Israel's bombardment of Iran in its second week, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, straining one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil supply.

By the numbers: Crude oil futures rose from about $65 per barrel in February to about $85 as of Wednesday, reaching more than $100 earlier this week.

• That led to the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to try and offset the spike.

Yes, but: The rise in prices coupled with the uncertainty about when the conflict will end are volatile conditions for the Houston energy and commodities industries, Medlock says.

• Plus, while higher prices on gasoline and other goods are generally good for commodity-producing regions like Greater Houston, it's not good for consumers.

What they're saying: "There's a balance there," Medlock says. "You typically want a price that's healthy enough to support business and business expansion, but at the same time, not really crimp pocketbooks."

Zoom in: The Trump administration's murky messaging on the war is hindering oil and gas producers and their downstream counterparts, like plastics manufacturers, from making business decisions, Medlock says.

• "Companies don't know whether to produce more. ... If you've got a lot of volatility, they're not going to take that step because it's an additional cost, and they don't know if it's going to be worth it."
• "Even when the (Trump) administration's making statements, they seem to contradict themselves," Medlock says. "It's not doing anything to help ease the uncertainty."

The bottom line

The Iran war's fuel-price shock is slamming states like Texas that could decide Senate control in November, a potential headache for Republicans defending their majority.

Why it matters: Affordability was already Democrats' central midterm message, and now the cost of President Trump's unpopular war is on display at the pump.

By the numbers: Three of the top four weekly jumps in diesel prices hit key midterm Senate races: Texas (+111.6¢), North Carolina (+110.5¢) and Georgia (+107.9¢), according to GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan.

State of play: Prices vary by state, based on factors like local competition or because producers can sell overseas at surging global prices, De Haan explains to Axios.

• That's why Texas, the nation's top oil-producing state, saw the biggest diesel spike in the country, which may be good news for producers but bad news for everyone filling up.

Zoom in: Gas prices in the Houston area are skyrocketing, but are still below national costs.

• Local prices have reached $3.08 per gallon, per GasBuddy, up from $2.34 last month.

Go deeper

🚔 Houston police have a new policy giving U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents 30 minutes to respond when officers have someone with an immigration detainer in custody.

• The move comes after two officers in 2025 transported detainees to agents at their request, in violation of department policy. (Houston Chronicle)

🎓 Houston's community colleges are revamping courses to meet local workforce needs as big tech expands in the region. (Houston Business Journal)

🗑️ The city of Houston is trying to address a backlog of 7,400 residents in need of trash bins. (ABC13)

🎸 Snag last-minute tickets to see Our Lady Peace at White Oak Music Hall.

• Ticket prices vary. 7pm Friday.

🍀 Attend the 65th annual St. Patrick's Day parade in downtown.

• Noon Saturday.

👰 Say yes to the dress (or maybe just some table decorations) at the Texas Bridal and Wedding Expo at the George R. Brown Convention Center.

• Entry is free with an online reservation or $10 at the door. 12:30pm-5pm Saturday and Sunday.

🤠 Enjoy a "sophisticated" rodeo celebration at River Oaks District with a petting zoo, Western-inspired cocktails and mocktails and more.

• 2-5pm Saturday.

🥧 Try your mouth at a pie-eating contest at any of Tumble 22 restaurant's three Houston-area locations for Pi Day.

• Entry is $10.