Axios Hill Leaders

October 20, 2026
Strap in. Tonight's edition is 721 words, 2.5 minutes.
- 💰 Exclusive ... GOP's tiny lead
- ‼️ Tough choices time
Situational awareness: The National Republican Senatorial Committee is doubling down on its coordinated campaign strategy, as it funneled another $34 million directly into battleground states in September. The committee raised $31.4 million for the month and took out a $20 million loan.
1 big thing: 💰 Exclusive... GOP's tiny lead
House Republicans are entering the final two weeks of the midterms with a rare but razor-thin fundraising advantage over House Democrats.
💰 Why it matters: Democrats outraised Republicans by $84 million in 2024 and $74 million in 2022. The GOP has eliminated that gap.
- The National Republican Congressional Committee out-raised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by $1 million ($250 million to $249 million) so far this cycle, we have learned.
- "The NRCC spent this cycle building a war chest to amplify Republican wins and make Democrats answer for their failures," NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) told us in a statement.
By the numbers: The NRCC raised $28.5 million in September, including a $14 million transfer from the Republican National Committee, compared to $26.3 million raised by the DCCC.
- The NRCC raised $50 million in Q3 and entered October with $61 million cash on hand.
- The DCCC raised $50.5 million in Q3, and entered October with $55.7 million cash on hand.
Between the lines: Hudson's fundraising success comes as Speaker Mike Johnson has also built a formidable fundraising operation of his own.
- Johnson has raised more than $220 million for House Republicans since becoming speaker in October 2023, a turnaround from early concerns about whether he could fill the void left by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
— Kate Santaliz
2. ‼️ Tough choices time
House Democrats' main super PAC is scaling back in three Republican-leaning races it once hoped national tailwinds could put in play, according to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter.
- Why it matters: Democrats' huge ambitions are running into the reality of finite resources.
The big picture: The DCCC and its corresponding super PAC, House Majority PAC, have struggled to keep pace with their GOP counterparts' monster fundraising this cycle.
- Republicans have the bonus advantage of a network of cash-rich outside groups, namely President Trump's MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC.
Driving the news: House Majority PAC is pulling back in ...
- TN-05: Democrats were bullish about their star recruit, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, until redistricting made the district redder and embattled Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher.
- CO-03: A top target for Democrats when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) represented it, the seat has become a heavier lift for the party since she abandoned it and Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) took office last year.
- FL-07: Facing a situation similar to Tennessee, Democrats had liked their odds of unseating scandal-tarred Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who lost his primary to former local news anchor Ryan Elijah. Democratic candidate Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, was a top DCCC recruit and is part of the committee's coveted "Red to Blue" program.
What they're saying: Phil Gardner, a senior adviser for Blue Dog Action — a centrist group backing Dalton — told us of the cuts in Florida: "I'm not sure what HMP was thinking here."
- "The rest of the party is not triaging this seat," he said, citing the DCCC's poll and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's (D-Mass.) plans to campaign there tomorrow.
- Gardner called it "bonkers" that HMP is spending in districts like Maine's 2nd District.
The other side: "We're focused on taking back the House," CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for HMP, told us in response to Gardner's criticism.
Between the lines: HMP has also made partial cuts — what it calls "shaves" — in Arizona's 2nd District and Texas' 23rd District, where Democrats have struggled to gain traction but still see a glimmer of hope.
Yes, but: Some HMP triages are in districts where they feel confident the Democratic candidate will prevail.
- That includes Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), both of whose races are rated "likely Democratic" by Cook.
- The PAC has pulled back in the districts of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), which Democrats are increasingly bullish about flipping.
— Andrew Solender
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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