Scoop: GOP Rep. Ogles faces 11th-hour cash barrage in primary
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Rep. Andy Ogles walks through the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 3. Photo: Heather Diehl/Getty Images
A super PAC that has invested millions to unseat Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) is putting another $700,000 behind his GOP primary challenger in the final week of the campaign, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Ogles was already facing one his most perilous reelection battle to date, with Democrats making him one of their top targets in November. But first he has to get the nomination, which is not a done deal.
- Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, the clean-energy aligned super PAC working to primary Ogles, commissioned a poll that has him leading his challenger, Charlie Hatcher, by just four percentage points.
- The survey, first shared with Axios, had Ogles at 37% and Hatcher at 33% among 400 likely Republican primary voters interviewed between July 26 and 28.
- It was conducted by Tusk Strategies and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.
Driving the news: ITC is "committing an additional $700,000 in paid media for the final week of the race" on top of the $1.3 million it had already spent as of Wednesday, according to a press release first shared with Axios.
- Renewable energy executives are using the super PAC to punish Republican lawmakers for anti-wind and solar policies, such as the rollback of clean energy tax credits in the One Big, Beautiful Bill.
- "Our campaign is here to show that politicians who oppose clean energy do so at their own political peril. Andy Ogles is next," the group's chair, Tom Matzzie, who is also CEO of solar company CleanChoice Energy, said in a statement.
- The group spent heavily to defeat Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) in the GOP primary runoff for Texas attorney general. Roy lost to Mayes Middleton.
The other side: "As the Trump-endorsed candidate in this race, I am being targeted by left-wing liberals from California because I am one of President Trump's closest allies," Ogles said in a statement to Axios.
- "They want to stop Trump-endorsed MAGA warriors from delivering for the American people. This desperate attempt to SILENCE me is futile. I will not be silent and I will never stop fighting to put America First."
- In addition to its spending against Roy and Ogles, the group spent $125,000 to support Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who voted for the OBBB but fought to preserve the IRA tax credits.
State of play: Despite Ogles' incumbency and crucial support from Trump, Hatcher has some things going for him.
- A former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture, Hatcher is backed by some party heavyweights, including former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam and former Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue.
- Ogles is also running in drastically new territory after Tennessee's mid-cycle redistricting, which saw his district take in more rural, agricultural areas that Hatcher's camp believes will favor them.
- Hatcher campaign consultant John Newman told Axios his candidate "relates to folks in the newly drawn congressional district much better than the current occupant."
By the numbers: ITC has also swamped Ogles' biggest backer, the House Freedom Fund, which has spent just under $500,000 on the race.
- Hatcher has also out-raised the incumbent, bringing in $720,000 in contributions as of July 17 and coming into the final stretch with $105,000 in cash-on-hand.
- Ogles raised $610,000 and had just $58,000 in cash by the same point, but his campaign owed about $70,000 in debt.
Between the lines: Ogles has also been the subject of significant public controversy in recent years.
- He is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for his campaign finances and previously faced an Justice Department probe that was shut down after Trump returned to office last year.
- He has also repeatedly drawn condemnation from colleagues for making Islamophobic public statements, such as writing on social media in March that "Muslims don't belong in American society."
Yes, but: Ogles still has incumbency and Trump, which are highly significant factors in most Republican primaries.
- The president held a tele-rally on Ogles' behalf Tuesday, urging listeners to "get out and vote for Andy Ogles," who he said has "been a friend of mine."
- Tennessee Republicans say Ogles is in real danger but probably still the favorite, with one U.S. House member from the state telling Axios, "If he works he wins."
- But, this lawmaker warned, Ogles "still could lose [the] general" in November.
