Axios Hill Leaders

October 02, 2025
🚨 Two down, TBD to go. 1,116 words, 4 minutes.
- 📲 Texts for Chuck Schumer
- 🐊 GOP's carpetbagger primary
- 💰 Incognito fundraising
1 big thing: 📲 Texts for Chuck Schumer
Progressive grassroots groups are putting congressional Democrats on speed dial to "hold the line" on government shutdown negotiations.
Why it matters: That pressure campaign will make it more difficult for Democrats to compromise with Republicans to end the shutdown.
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been closely coordinating his shutdown strategy with outside liberal groups, we scooped last week.
- But the groups are clearly playing an inside-outside game and are using their volunteers to dissuade Democrats from compromising.
Driving the news: The Working Families Party and MoveOn are ginning up their phone and text banks for their activists to pressure their senators.
- "I'm calling to encourage Senator _________ to hold the line during this shutdown and keep fighting against Trump's health care cuts and price increases," according to a script from the WFP first obtained by Axios.
- "Thank your Senator for continuing to hold the line on healthcare against Republicans' cuts," according to a text sent to MoveOn members.
The intrigue: The groups are using carrots and sticks.
- "Your Senator just voted against making healthcare affordable for families. Tell them to do better and fight for us," reads the MoveOn text aimed at supporters living in the states of the 55 senators who voted to fund the government.
Zoom out: On day two of the government shutdown, with the Senate out for Yom Kippur, there was scant evidence of any progress to reopen the government.
- The outlines of a potential deal on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits in exchange for votes to fund the government are starting to emerge, but both sides remain far apart.
- "Let's sit down, let's fix it, let's come up with a timeframe to do that," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said this morning on Fox News.
- "We have a path forward, but it requires Senate Democrats to come to their senses and vote for the clean, short-term continuing resolution that would reopen the government," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) wrote on X.
Zoom in: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), the only House Democrat to vote to fund the government, is being attacked by state Auditor Matthew Dunlap, who is eyeing a primary challenge against him.
- "It's not the first time he's caved, and it probably won't be the last," Dunlap told us.
- Dunlap's taunt could serve as a warning to Democrats who are curious about a potential compromise: Work with Republicans and risk a primary challenge.
— Holly Otterbein and Hans Nichols
2. 🐊 GOP's carpetbagger primary
Five (5!) of the candidates in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Byron Donalds have previously run for Congress ... in a different state.
Why it matters: President Trump turned Florida into the GOP's power center. Now, ambitious Republican politicians are flocking there to reboot their careers and grab a safe seat.
- "Virtually everyone here is from somewhere else," Florida GOP consultant Travis Horn told us. "But we're not a state where everyone should think they can just come and run for office and rehab their image."
🥳 The comeback kids: For some Republicans, Florida's 19th District is a fresh start.
- Former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn formally filed yesterday to run in the district. We previously reported that Cawthorn, who accused his GOP colleagues of orgies and drug use and lost his seat after just one term, was plotting his return to Congress.
- Former New York Rep. Chris Collins, who resigned from Congress before pleading guilty to insider trading, announced his candidacy in early June. He served just two months of his 26-month sentence before he was pardoned by Trump.
- Ola Hawatmeh, a senior policy adviser for Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) and a failed New York congressional candidate, posted a photo with Trump touting her $100,000 fundraising haul. Her FEC quarterly reports haven't been posted.
🌽 Midwesterners: Others are flocking south from Illinois, hoping the Gulf Coast offers better political fortune.
- Former Illinois state senator Jim Oberweis, whose dairy business collapsed after years of failed bids for higher office, was the first Republican to formally file.
- Catalina Lauf, who challenged former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) but fell short in the general election, announced her bid today.
🐊 The Florida men: Still, not everyone is a transplant. A handful of local hopefuls are also jumping in.
- Jim Schwartzel, president of Sun Broadcasting, has received the most donations to date of any candidate, according to FEC filings.
- Johnny Fratto challenged Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Fla.) last cycle.
- Mike Pedersen, a retired Marine, is also running.
The bottom line: It's a safe seat for Republicans. Whoever claws their way through the circus-like primary is almost guaranteed a ticket to Washington.
— Kate Santaliz and Marc Caputo
3. 💰 Incognito fundraising
High-end destination fundraisers won't all be canceled this weekend. But don't expect many lawmakers to broadcast their attendance with the federal government still in shutdown.
- 🍷 The windswept and wine-soaked events will go on but likely at the staff level.
- 🥸 And if senators or representatives do attend, expect them to be half incognito (no Instagram).
Driving the news: The National Republican Senate Committee's extravaganza at Sea Island, Georgia, will still take place.
- Roughly 20 senators were scheduled to show, but that number is likely to fall to single digits. The NRSC did not answer direct questions on whether Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) would attend.
- Sea Island attendees received an email today that noted: "These events are reserved and contracted years in advance — beyond even our current term at the NRSC — and both our costs and attendees' rooms are non-refundable."
- Rain is forecast for Sea Island this weekend.
The other side: Democratic lawmakers and leaders are pulling out of an event in Ventura County, California, for a PAC associated with Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.).
- But the event hasn't been scotched and will still take place, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has a fundraiser planned for next weekend at the Ritz-Carlton in Puerto Rico.
- "We will decide on future political travel based on the status of the government shutdown and political actions of Republicans," said a Gallego spokesperson.
- "Senate Republicans, on the other hand, are going to let health care for 24 million Americans lapse and head to Sea Island this weekend during the shutdown for a luxurious fundraising trip," the spokesperson said.
Between the lines: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is leaning against holding weekend votes, if a fourth vote to open the government fails tomorrow.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson told Republicans not to do fundraisers, we reported this week.
— Hans Nichols, Stephen Neukam and Kate Santaliz
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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