Inside the political pressure hurtling Democrats toward a shutdown
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After months of being besieged with demands to "fight harder," Democrats finally see an opportunity to satisfy their grassroots base. All they have to do is be willing to shut down the government.
Why it matters: Unlike in March, they might actually do it. The pressure is higher than ever, and Democratic leaders are gesticulating as though they're ready for a shutdown.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have been demanding President Trump sit down with them to hash out their demands to preserve health care access.
- Trump scheduled a meeting with the Democratic leaders but cancelled it at the urging of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.).
- Thune will need the votes of at least seven Senate Democrats to pass a House-passed stopgap funding measure, or else the government will shut down at midnight on Sept. 30.
What we're hearing: Both progressive and moderate Democrats who spoke to Axios on Thursday said the party is unified in their openness to allowing a shutdown to happen if Trump doesn't come to the table.
- Even Democrats who represent districts in the D.C. suburbs, rather than wanting to avert a shutdown for fear of its impact on federal workers, are embracing their party's demands for a negotiation.
- "I spoke to several contractors and federal workers," said Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.). "Like me, they don't want a shutdown, but they also don't want us to capitulate and pretend like things are normal."
- "When you don't take a stand when bullied ... they're going to keep doing it to you. So this is also tactical," Subramanyam added.
House Democrats are scheduled to have a virtual caucus meeting Friday afternoon to discuss the government funding deadline, according to an invite shared with Axios.
Zoom out: The stalemate comes after months of Democrats being bombarded with demands in phone calls and at town halls to go all-out in fighting the Trump administration.
- "Obviously the base of the party wants to see that we're not going along," said one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts on the political dynamics of the shutdown fight.
- "Maybe in the very beginning they thought there was more we could do," the lawmaker added. "Now they thoroughly understand we don't have those levers and buttons, except this button."
- Another House Democrat acknowledged pressure from the base is "part of [the] calculation" as the party digs in on their demands.
Yes, but: Unlike in March, when Schumer ultimately supported Republicans' measure to avert a shutdown, Democratic lawmakers and the grassroots appear to be largely in accordance.
- A third House Democrat said there is "a very sincerely held view" among Democratic lawmakers that "uncertainty is a better outcome than the continuation of the Trump administration just ignoring our constitutional role" on federal spending.
- "I think people understand there would be hell to pay if we don't put up a fight, but I also think this is a place where most members and the base authentically align," a fourth House Democrat said.
The other side: Jeffries, at a press conference Thursday, dismissed the notion that pressure from the base is playing a role. The fight is about policy, he said.
- "The health care crisis impacting the American people is real. The issue is about health care," he said.
- "In a matter of days, notices are going to go out to tens of millions of Americans indicating to them that their health care insurance costs ... are about to skyrocket," he added. "That is not an acceptable thing."
The bottom line: If Senate Democrats do cave again as they did in March, the backlash against party leadership — particularly Schumer — could be immense.
- Subramanyam told Axios "the base would be incensed if Schumer was seen as capitulating again."
- The first House Democrat who spoke on the condition of anonymity offered a blunter assessment: "I think it's pretty safe to say that if Schumer folded and got nothing in return before [Oct. 1], he might as well just go to the UPS store and grab a U-Haul and clean out his office."
- Criticism of Schumer last time didn't reach a critical mass in the Senate Democratic caucus — the only real determinant of whether he remains leader.
Axios' Stephen Neukam contributed reporting for this story.
