Axios Hill Leaders

September 03, 2025
🥳 We're back! Buckle up for a crazy month. Tonight's edition is 1,050 words, a 4-minute read.
- 🚨 Epstein files dump
- 🏃♀️House Republicans bolt
- 🐖 MAGA hope in Iowa
1 big thing: 🚨 Epstein files dump

After fleeing D.C. to avoid the issue in August, the House Oversight Committee released a redacted tranche of Epstein files tonight.
Why it matters: It's not the full, raw release demanded by the MAGA base, a handful of Republican lawmakers, and nearly every House Democrat.
- But GOP leaders are betting that it will stymie Republican rebels who are pushing their own discharge petition on the files in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) formally filed his long-awaited discharge petition today. If signed by 218 House members, it would force a vote on releasing the files.
- Massie and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) have pushed their respective parties to back the release of the files, but their populist revolt has faced resistance from House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Trump.
- Every House Democrat is expected to sign, with Massie telling reporters today he is "pretty confident" they can get the necessary Republican signatures as well.
🥊 The intrigue: Johnson told reporters today he'd describe everything Massie has to say about Epstein as "meaningless."
- After meeting with a group of Epstein's victims in the Capitol for over two hours today, Johnson called the discharge petition "moot" because of Oversight's progress in its probe.
- "It was inartfully drafted, it does not adequately protect the innocent victims," Johnson also said of the discharge petition.
The other side: Massie told us tonight of the Oversight panel's file release: "My staff has done a quick look at it and it looks like a bunch of redacted documents and nothing new, so it's not going to suffice."
- Massie said there is a "pressure campaign from the White House" on the 11 Republicans who have co-sponsored his Epstein bill not to sign the discharge petition, but that "there are also ones that the White House is not whipping that may be inclined to sign it."
- "And then also, eventually, people are not going to be satisfied with what's happening in the Oversight Committee. It's not going to bring the closure they're looking for."
The bottom line: The DOJ sent "thousands of pages" of records to the Oversight Committee, with more on the way.
- But the panel's top Democrat, Rep. Robert Garcia (Calif.), said the majority of the documents shared are already public.
- Oversight has lined up depositions with Bill and Hillary Clinton and former FBI director James Comey. Newly added to the list is former U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta.
- Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) also subpoenaed Epstein's estate for records last week, including a "birthday book" reportedly prepared by Ghislaine Maxwell. The deadline for that subpoena is Sept. 8.
— Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender
2. House Republicans bolt
Add three more House Republicans to the list of incumbents making a break for higher office.
- Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is running to succeed Sen. Joni Ernst in the Senate, now that Ernst's planned retirement is official.
- Over the August recess, Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) indicated to allies they were leaning toward gubernatorial bids, according to people familiar with the matter. Neither has made a final decision.
Why it matters: The new GOP trio will likely join more than a dozen GOP lawmakers mounting Senate, gubernatorial or attorney general campaigns.
- The number of House retirements isn't always a clear predictor if the House or Senate will flip parties.
- But the last two changes in control of the House, in 2018 and 2022, were preceded by above-average retirements.
By the numbers: Before Labor Day, four House Republicans and five Democrats had already announced Senate bids.
- Eight GOP representatives were preparing to run for governor.
- In Texas, Rep. Chip Roy announced a campaign for state attorney general.
Zoom out: The number of House departures in the 2026 cycle is already outpacing the retirement rate in recent years.
- Party committees like to limit the number of retirements for the simple reason that open seats are more expensive to defend.
The bottom line: National Republicans didn't fight to persuade Hinson, Hageman or Tiffany to stay in the House, like they did with Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Zach Nunn (R-Iowa).
— Hans Nichols
3. 🐖 MAGA hope in Iowa
Hinson's quick announcement that she's running for the Senate in Iowa will likely put a Trump loyalist at the top of the ticket, giving the GOP hope they can turn out Iowa's MAGA base when Trump isn't on the ballot.
Why it matters: Republicans will be defending two purple House seats in a state where they got clobbered in Trump's first mid-term election in 2018, losing three of Iowa's four seats.
- This cycle, they know they need to reassemble their presidential coalition to help return Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won by some 800 votes, to the House.
- Democrats are optimistic they can turn Iowa's congressional races into a referendum on some of Trump's policies, from imposing tariffs to canceling clean energy tax credits.
Between the lines: Seasoned GOP consultants referred to Ernst's retirement, which she announced today, in similar tones to Sen. Thom Tillis' decision to forgo reelection in North Carolina in June.
- The senators were proven winners, but the base wasn't super excited about them.
Flashback: When Ernst was equivocating on supporting Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, the state's attorney general wrote an op-ed criticizing "D.C. politicians" for potentially bucking Trump.
- The message was clear: Support Hegseth or invite a primary.
- Ernst also gave Democrats several days of media talking points when she said, "We are all going to die" when asked about Medicaid cuts.
The other side: In Iowa's 2nd District, Democrats are already rallying behind former state representative, State Rep. Christina Bohannan, who raised more than $800,000 in the first two weeks in her third try to defeat Miller-Meeks.
- They are also heralding a special election in Sioux City last month, in which a Democrat won a Trump district by double digits.
- And Republicans are clearly focused on Nunn's race, with the White House actively persuading him to stay out of the governor's race so he could defend the 3rd District.
— Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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