House Dems think Trump's tariffs can win them back the Corn Belt

House Democrats are convinced that President Trump's tariffs will help them plough a path to the majority through the Corn Belt.

🌽 Why it matters: The trade war, at least with China, looks like it's back on. Party strategists are banking farmers will start to turn on Trump if that trade war closes off international markets when they harvest crops this fall.

• "So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Friday.
• "Our Midwest farmers were struggling before the tariff war with low commodity prices and high input costs like fertilizers," Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Axios.
• "We've lost some markets already because of the tariffs."

🔬 Zoom in: If Democrats defeat Iowa Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (who won by 800 votes) in 2024, plus Rep. Derrick Van Orden across the river in Wisconsin, they will net the three seats needed for the majority.

• Beating Bacon and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) would pad their numbers a bit more.

🔎 Between the lines: Eighteen months out from the election, both parties see plausible paths to the majority.

• Trump has a five-point plan to win the midterms. House GOP strategists know they need to convince the MAGA base that Trump is essentially on the ballot.
• They are also optimistic about defeating some of the Democrats in the 13 House seats that Trump won in 2024.
• Both parties are still waiting on potential redistricting efforts in Wisconsin (which Democrats will control) and Ohio (which Republicans will draw).

🌆 The big picture: Democrats are also working to make the suburbs sour on Trump, like they did in 2018. This could help them knock off GOP incumbents like Rep. Mike Lawler, north of New York City, and Gabe Evans (R-Colo.) in the Denver suburbs.

• Freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), who represents Lansing and its environs, is another top target.
• There will also be battles elsewhere in the Rust Belt, with Rep. John James (R-Mich.) leaving his seat north of Detroit to run for governor.

What they're saying: "Sweeping tariffs will cost House Republicans politically across the entire country, but especially in the districts where the majority will be decided," DCCC chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) told Axios.

• "They hit even harder in districts dependent on agriculture, as farmers get crushed by higher costs and fewer customers from Trump's trade wars."

Other Republicans profess not to be too worried.

• "While the left cries wolf, prices continue to fall, and the economy is booming under President Trump and Republicans in Congress," said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the NRCC.
• "It's clear House Democrats have no message other than pathetic fear-mongering and distractions from their failures." -

The intrigue: Trump and Republicans have other ways to appeal to farmers' bottom lines.

• Last month, the administration issued an emergency waiver for ethanol to be blended into fuel this summer, a boon to the corn industry.
• The Trump budget bill has $60 billion for a farm safety net, including market access programs at the Department of Agriculture.
• Nunn calls it a "win" for Iowa.

The bottom line: So far, however, the effects of tariffs haven't sent prices sky high. New data Friday showed that inflation cooled.

• But it's still unclear if Trump's trade war 2.0, which could get messy in all sorts of ways, will crush commodity prices in the Corn Belt and drag down Republicans.