MAGA's reason for hope in Iowa
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Rep. Ashley Hinson's quick announcement that she's running for the Senate in Iowa will likely put a Trump loyalist at the top of the ticket, giving the GOP hope they can turn out Iowa's MAGA base when President Trump isn't on the ballot.
Why it matters: Republicans will be defending two purple House seats in a state where they got clobbered in Trump's first midterm election in 2018, losing three of Iowa's four seats.
- This cycle, they know they need to reassemble their presidential coalition to help return Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won by some 800 votes, to the House.
- Democrats are optimistic they can turn Iowa's congressional races into a referendum on some of Trump's policies, from imposing tariffs to canceling clean energy tax credits.
Between the lines: Seasoned GOP consultants referred to Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement in Iowa, which she announced Tuesday, in similar tones to Sen. Thom Tillis' decision to forgo reelection in North Carolina in June.
- The senators were proven winners, but the base wasn't super excited about them.
Flashback: When Ernst was equivocating on supporting Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, the state's attorney general wrote an op-ed criticizing "D.C. politicians" for potentially bucking Trump.
- The message was clear: Support Hegseth or invite a primary.
- Ernst also gave Democrats several days of media talking points when she said, "We are all going to die" when asked about Medicaid cuts.
The other side: In Iowa's 2nd District, Democrats are already rallying behind former state representative, state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who raised more than $800,000 in the first two weeks in her third try to defeat Miller-Meeks.
- They are also heralding a special election in Sioux City last month, in which a Democrat won a Trump district by double digits.
- And Republicans are clearly focused on Nunn's race, with the White House actively persuading him to stay out of the governor's race so he could defend the 3rd District.
- "Hinson knows what we know: there's change coming in Iowa," said DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith in a statement.
