Axios Hill Leaders
March 19, 2025
1 big thing: 🔥 Johnson's hot streak
House Speaker Mike Johnson is on a hot streak, with tons of assists from President Trump.
Why it matters: From here, his challenges will compound, but Johnson is 3 for 3 this year on big fights when the outcomes were far from certain.
- 🔨 House Speaker vote: Johnson held the line despite a tiny majority and walked away with rule changes that helped un-castrate House GOP leadership.
- ✅ "One big, beautiful bill": It took evening theatrics, including calling the House back to vote. But Johnson took the upper hand over the Senate on Trump's budget.
- 💰 Government shutdown: Johnson passed a GOP-written funding bill with a zero-vote margin, pushing Senate Dems into a lose-lose situation. After two years of speakers turning to House Dems to avoid government shutdowns, this was a big deal.
Zoom out: Johnson's strategy is fairly simple. He hugs Trump at every turn and holds him tighter than the Senate does.
- It started with his courthouse visit in Manhattan last May, when he was the highest-ranking GOP official to show his support at Trump's criminal hush-money trial.
- In the 10 months since, Johnson has refused to allow daylight between him and the president.
- That strategy paid off big-time: Trump pushed for Johnson as speaker ahead of the vote. He publicly endorsed Johnson's budget bill over the Senate version. He then helped roll the House conservatives who long bragged about voting against funding bills.
What's next: Johnson will need to keep Trump from jumping to the Senate's side in the tax and spending fight to come.
- His argument to Trump is essentially about the art of the possible, turning his paper-thin margin from his biggest liability to his biggest asset.
— Hans Nichols and Justin Green
2. 👎 GOP chairs warn Trump
3. 😬 Trouble for Oz
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is blasting Mehmet Oz, calling into question his nomination to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
- Why it matters: Hawley's questions could raise major issues among Republicans. Oz can only afford to lose three Republican senators to win confirmation without any Democratic support.
Zoom in: "I hope he's changed his views to match President Trump! We need the Trump agenda at CMS," Hawley posted on X today, sharing a list of questions he has for the nominee.
- Hawley said he had been "reading up" on Oz and found that the nominee has "praised trans surgeries for minors and supported hormone treatments & puberty blockers for kids in the past."
- Hawley's first question addresses episodes of Oz's television show featuring kids who had transitioned and a doctor who endorsed gender-affirming medical care.
- Hawley also wants Oz to answer for past criticism of anti-abortion rights policies and pushes him to commit to ensuring federal funds are not used for abortion, among other anti-abortion policies.
Zoom out: This comes shortly after a similar campaign by Hawley against Hilary Perkins led to her abrupt exit as chief counsel at the FDA.
- Oz had his confirmation hearing in front of the Finance Committee on Friday, in which he largely dodged Democratic attempts to pin him down on Medicaid cuts.
— Stef Kight
4. 🎯 Charted: Johnson's top targets
Just a handful of House Republicans have been able to hold Speaker Johnson hostage for the past few years. He wants that to finally change.
The big picture: House Republicans are looking well beyond the roughly dozen Trump-district Democrats as they try to grow their two-seat majority.
- Johnson's campaign arm, the NRCC, released an initial list of 26 districts that it is targeting in the 2026 midterms.
Zoom in: House Majority PAC, which is closely tied to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), released its initial target list last year.
- It includes 29 districts, some of which Republicans won by as many as 14 percentage points.
- The Democratic PAC also released another 16 "districts to watch" that Republicans won by 12 to 30 percentage points.
— Andrew Solender
Axios Hill Leaders
