Jeffries super PAC looks deep into GOP territory for 2026 map
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A super PAC closely aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is circling districts that voted for their Republican incumbents by as much as 30 percentage points as it charts a course back to the majority
Why it matters: Democrats are cautiously optimistic that they can pull off a repeat of the 2018 "Blue Wave" as Trump's right-wing policy agenda and appointments come into view.
- "I think that it's pretty clear that Republicans will overreach and that will create some political opportunity," Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), the chair of the House Democratic caucus, told Axios.
Driving the news: House Majority PAC released a memo outlining a whopping 29 districts they're targeting in the upcoming election cycle.
- Only a handful of the districts went for Vice President Harris over President-elect Trump.
- On the House level, the districts went Republican by margins ranging from a fifth of a percentage point to more than 14 points.
- The PAC also included another 16 seats on its "districts to watch" list in which House Republicans won by 12 to 29 percentage points.
Zoom in: HMP President Mike Smith, underscoring the logic behind such a sprawling list of targets, pointed to that Cook Political Report's ratings for the 2018 cycle.
- "At the beginning of the 2018 cycle, there was 1 Republican rated in a likely or lean Democratic seat, with 12 rated as Tossup or Lean R," he said.
- "By the end of the cycle, there were 18 Republicans in likely or lean Democratic seats and 57 in Toss Up or Lean R" seats.
- Said Aguilar: "I think we can compete in a lot of places once people find out that Donald Trump promised to lower their costs and raise their incomes and none of that will come to fruition."
Yes, but: Some Democrats say that their party will need to make smart political moves and can't rely solely on anti-Trump sentiment in 2026.
- Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the incoming chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, said the party needs to "do a better job of connecting with voters" and show they have "clear workable ideas that will move the country forward."
- "I'm personally not that bullish. I always run scared anyway. I just think it's a little early," said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), who represents swing-district Democrats in leadership.
The other side: Several House Republicans who won by comfortable margins scoffed at being included on HMP's list.
- Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said she is "not concerned about it" and is starting a new version of outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik's E-PAC which will be "aggressively pursuing" battleground House districts.
- "In their defense I only won by 25 points, so I guess it's razor-thin," quipped Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas).
- Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) told Axios that being on the HMP list will "make me work harder," saying it is unrealistic that Democrats could win his seat but "they could dream."
What to watch: HMP is focusing in on recruitment as a key factor in retaking the House, launching a 2026 Recruitment Fund.
- "HMP has already been conducting significant outreach and researching potential candidates across the country," the memo said.
- One potential wellspring of recruitment is incumbents who narrowly lost reelection.
- Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) told Axios another run is "not off the table but I want to take a little bit of time and then evaluate the whole situation."
