Axios Generate

Record-breaking, deadly heat in the U.S. and Europe would have been "virtually impossible" in a world without human-driven climate change, Andrew writes.

Why it matters: The findings of a new study show society is more vulnerable than previously thought to relatively low levels of warming.

• The study, published early Tuesday, also drives home the speed with which greenhouse gas emissions are transforming our climate.

Driving the news: With all-time heat records falling in North America, Europe and Asia, seven members of the international group of scientists known as World Weather Attribution examined the potential that human-caused climate change is shifting the likelihood and severity of heat waves.

Reality check: While rapid analyses are based on peer-reviewed methods, they are conducted and released too quickly to undergo outside evaluation.

• This is a tradeoff: The goal is to provide the public and policymakers with needed context for understanding ongoing or recent extreme events.

Zoom in: The data found that the heat waves still affecting three continents have been transformed from rare events to relatively common occurrences, in a matter of just a few decades.

• Sweltering conditions in the U.S., Mexico and southern Europe would have been "virtually impossible ... if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels," the study says.
• The researchers also concluded that climate change dramatically increased the odds of this month's heat wave in China, which set a provisional national record high temperature.
• China's heat wave would have been a 1-in-250-year event without human-caused warming. But now, such an event has a 20% chance of occurring in any given year.

How they did it: Using weather observations and computer models, scientists compared the extreme heat in the context of the climate as it exists today — after about 1.2°C (2.16°F) of human-caused warming — with that of the preindustrial era.

The intrigue: Climate change made heat waves both more possible, and hotter — about 2.5°C (4.5°F) degrees warmer in southern Europe, and 2°C (3.6°F) higher in the southwestern U.S.

What they're saying: "As long as we keep burning fossil fuels, we will see more and more of these extremes," said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who leads the group that completed the study.

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Offshore wind is in the throes of a good times, bad times dynamic, Ben writes.

Driving the news: Octopus Energy plans to invest $20 billion by 2030 in offshore wind, the U.K.-based company said Monday.

The big picture: It's the latest in a years-long stream of industry and policy moves to expand generation. Two recent examples:

• TotalEnergies and BP are planning large projects off Germany's coast after placing billions of dollars in winning auction bids.
• Biden officials will next month hold the first Gulf of Mexico offshore wind lease auction, adding to ongoing East Coast development and West Coast leasing.

Yes, but: Planned farms face tough project economics and material costs, even as the first large-scale U.S. projects are beginning construction in the Atlantic.

• Rhode Island Energy last week abandoned a project proposed by Ørsted and Eversource.
• The utility noted "higher interest rates, increased costs of capital and supply chain expenses."
• More broadly, "soaring" costs are threatening or killing multiple projects in the U.S. and Europe, per Bloomberg.

Why it matters: Offshore areas have massive potential; there's already substantial commercial output in China and Europe and a lot planned on the East Coast.

What they're saying: Developers are in a tough spot, the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Allegra Dawes tells HeatMap News.

• “They look at projects and the agreed upon price and are not seeing a path to profitability,” she said.
• Last year, final investment decisions fell by over 50%, per International Energy Agency analysis.

The bottom line: Offshore wind's a tool for helping to decarbonize power, but barriers to rapid growth are very real.

Wind power — which is mostly onshore projects even as offshore development rises — is growing steadily but not fast enough, Ben writes.

The big picture: According to the International Energy Agency, wind is in a bucket labeled as "more efforts needed", part of a three-tiered system for assessing progress of technologies against climate goals.

• The chart above shows recent growth — and the gap with the 2030 target in the agency's hypothetical roadmap to net-zero emissions in 2050.
• The "most important areas" for improvement are "facilitating permitting for onshore wind and cost reductions for offshore wind," IEA notes.

⚡ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is pressing the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to strengthen and complete rules that enable more transmission construction, Ben writes.

• Why it matters: More long-distance projects are needed to bring power generated from renewables projects to demand centers.

• Quick take: The plea to FERC comes as legislation to speed transmission permitting faces big hurdles in Congress.
• Go deeper: Full letter; coverage in HeatMap News and The Hill.

🇨🇳 Two House committee chairs have launched an investigation into Ford Motor Co. and its relationship with Chinese battery-maker CATL, Axios Pro: Energy Policy's Jael Holzman reports.

• Why it matters: The auto industry's relationships with Chinese companies is in the House GOP's oversight crosshairs. Subscribe for the whole story and vital coverage every week.

💵 "The U.S. government will provide up to $1.55 billion in funding to monitor and reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, two agencies said on Monday," Reuters reports.

Capital spending in oil is suffering a "Goldilocks" problem, Ben writes.

Why it matters: Too little investment in new supplies could risk shortages with steep economic tolls, while too much helps amplify planet-warming emissions.

The big picture: There's too much fretting about the "too little" side of the ledger, even as industry spending remains well below its peak in the mid-2010s, two research firms say.

Driving the news: "[I]nvestment around today’s levels can deliver the supply needed to meet demand through to its peak and beyond," a Wood Mackenzie analysis finds.

• The current rate of roughly $500 billion a year — about half the level a decade ago — on asset development can deliver enough oil and gas to meet demand over the next 10 years, they write.
• They see an oil demand peak of around 108 million barrels per day in the early 2030s, followed by a long, gradual decline.
• Still, they note this trajectory is decidedly not a recipe for meeting Paris Agreement temperature goals.

State of play: The cost of new supply has "fallen dramatically" as price shocks in 2015-2016 and 2020-2021 forced companies to be more efficient and selective about which projects proceed, Woodmac said.

Catch up fast: Their take matches a recent Rystad Energy note that calls claims of underinvestment "overblown," citing unit cost relief, efficiency and productivity gains, and other factors.

💵 Breaking Tuesday: TotalEnergies is spending $1.6 billion to buy the remaining 71% stake in the renewables company Total Eren, signaling the oil and gas giant's deepening push into the sector, Ben writes.

• Zoom in: Total Eren has 3.5 gigawatts of capacity in operation worldwide and a project pipeline three times that size, the announcement states.

☀️ The solar firm Meyer Burger said Monday it's building a 2 gigawatt cell manufacturing plant in Colorado Springs, tapping manufacturing tax credits available in the climate law. More from the Denver Post

🔋 "Stellantis says it will build a second U.S. electric vehicle battery factory in a joint venture with Samsung," AP reports.