El Niño, the ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific that can supercharge global extreme weather, is officially back after about a four-year hiatus, Andrew writes.

Why it matters: The system, which NOAA announced Thursday morning, holds large sway over global weather patterns. It is likely to increase global average temperatures, leading to an all-time record warm year in 2023 or 2024, surpassing the El Niño year of 2016.

• El Niño will also contribute to heat waves, droughts, floods and other weather extremes, which already are worsening from human-caused climate change.
• It is influencing the North Atlantic hurricane season, making for an especially uncertain outlook.

Zoom in: El Niño events are characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific, particularly across the central and eastern Pacific.

The intrigue: Some climate scientists and meteorologists told Axios they are looking toward the coming months to a year or more with trepidation and curiosity, given that the oceans already are record-warm going into the event, and temperatures are likely to climb further.

• “The global oceans are very warm right now and I’m afraid that this is putting us into territory that we don’t have much experience with,” Michelle L'Heureux, chief of Climate Prediction Center's El Niño-Southern Oscillation team, said in an interview.
• And on land, scorching heat waves have struck large swaths of Asia this spring, while Canada is amid what is likely to be its worst wildfire season on record.
• Fires burning in Quebec turned the skies in New York City a bright, otherworldly orange on Wednesday.

Of note: The natural climate phenomenon now occurs against a backdrop of a rapidly warming planet being worsened by human emissions of fossil fuels. It makes the evolution and impacts more uncertain — and potentially more significant, experts told Axios.

• NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts this El Niño has an 84% likelihood of exceeding moderate intensity and a 56% chance of reaching "strong" criteria.

Yes, but: While it's clear that ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions now support the El Niño designation, it is not guaranteed to continue developing into a long-lasting event, L'Heureux cautioned.

What they're saying: Kim Cobb, director of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, is particularly concerned about El Niño's ocean-related effects.

• "Many ecosystems, including many coral reefs, are still reeling from the impacts of the 2016 El Nino-related marine heat waves," she said.

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Two competing forces are battling to a draw in oil markets, Ben writes.

Driving the news: China's uncertain economic picture and Saudi Arabia's effort to prop up prices appear to be canceling each other out.

• On Sunday, Riyadh vowed to cut output by 1 million barrels per day, but prices have remained in a rather narrow range all week.
• This morning, Brent crude is trading at $77.31-per-barrel — not far from Friday's close of $76.13.

Why it matters: The stasis reflects China's outsized effect on energy markets as the world's largest oil importer, second-largest oil consumer and second-largest economy, where activity is slowing markedly.

State of play: China's economic picture is mixed of late. Its exports fell 7.5% year-over-year last month.

• Industrial production, retail sales and capital investment were all softer than expected in April, Axios' Matt Phillips reports in Markets.
• But ING analysts note China's oil imports grew 17% last month and were up 12%, compared with May 2022.

The big picture: OPEC producers may not have pushed prices sharply upward, but they appear to have prevented fresh erosion.

The bottom line: There are many uncertainties, as usual, when it comes to the oil market, and if I have to pick the most important one it’s China," International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol tells Bloomberg.

💰Just Climate, a VC firm launched through the Al Gore-led Generation Investment Management, announced the close of its first fund at $1.5 billion, Ben writes.

• The big picture: The fund will support "growth-stage, asset-heavy companies" that help clean up hard-to-decarbonize industries, the company said.

• State of play: Just Climate, which already has staked three companies, plans investments of $50 million to $150 million, with bigger checks spread across tranches, Axios Pro: Climate Deals' Alan Neuhauser reports.
• Of note: I highly recommend subscribing to Deals for daily tech scoops and vital analysis.

☀️Solar and storage developer CleanCapital has an additional commitment of up to $500 million from Manulife Investment Management, adding to its existing investment.

🔋Battery material company Ascend Elements "said it has reached a billion-dollar deal with an unnamed automaker to reprocess old batteries into cathode material," Bloomberg reports about a planned Kentucky project.

EU leaders and COP28 organizers are linking arms on near-term global targets for renewables, efficiency and hydrogen they want adopted at this year's climate talks, Ben writes.

Catch up fast: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other top officials met in Brussels Wednesday with Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the United Arab Emirates official leading this year's United Nations summit.

Driving the news: They'll try and corral buy-in for "global 2030 targets for the tripling of renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency, as well as promote the doubling of clean hydrogen by unlocking global cross-border trade," a readout states.

Why it matters: That and other goals provide another hint of how power brokers are approaching the late 2023 talks.

The outlook for U.S. electric vehicle adoption has brightened, the research firm BloombergNEF said, Ben writes.

Why it matters: EVs are a big tool for wringing CO2 out of transportation.

Driving the news: The outlook sees EVs — including plug-in hybrids — reaching 23% of U.S. passenger vehicle sales in 2025, 28% in 2026 and 51% by 2030.

• That's up from 16% in 2025 and 44% in 2030, in the 2022 edition.
• The increase reflects incentives in the new climate law, but also more offerings reaching the market.

The big picture: More from BloombergNEF's latest projections...

• On a global basis, EVs' share of passenger sales jumps from 14% last year to 30% in 2026, and far above that in China — the biggest market — and Europe.
• Looking further out, EVs reach 75% of new sales in 2040 in their base case.

Yes, but: As with lots of climate tech, growth is steep yet out-of-step with what's needed to reach net-zero global emissions in 2050.

• Passenger and "light commercial" vehicles — together almost two-thirds of road transport emissions — are on a "positive trajectory" under BloombergNEF's net-zero scenario.
• But medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, another 30% of road emissions, are off track, with heavy trucks especially far behind.

Threat level: The analysis explores raw materials needed to support EVs.

• Lithium is the "most concerning" in their net-zero case, with demand growing by a factor of 22 in their net-zero case.
• But alternative battery chemistries could sharply cut that amount.

The intrigue: It warns of a battery range "arms race" that puts pressure on lithium, nickel and cobalt, among others.

• Instead, governments should boost support for "dense" public charging that gives drivers confidence.

That's the number of people without electricity as of 2021, with the vast majority in sub-Saharan Africa, per a new joint report from the World Bank, IEA and other multilateral groups, Ben writes.

Why it matters: That's down sharply from 1.1 billion in 2010, but that still leaves a vast number of people in the dark, with all the hardship that entails. The UN goal is universal access by 2030.

Of note: A reminder that economies need more energy to thrive than just the basic access reflected in this data.