Threats from the still-emerging Atlantic hurricane season are converging with preexisting oceanic and atmospheric trends, underscoring how climate change is giving birth to unprecedented storm conditions, Andrew writes.

The big picture: The tropical Atlantic is especially toasty, particularly temperatures in one crucial swath of the sea known as the "Main Development Region."

• This is where many tropical storms and hurricanes form and intensify; ocean temperatures here are closely watched at the start of the season and used to help predict storm activity.
• In many seasons, freshening trade winds tend to cool those waters down. This year, that's not expected to happen.
• Climate change is a major factor driving ocean temperatures higher.

Why it matters: Generally, warmer waters concern public officials and meteorologists responsible for tracking landfalling storms along the East and Gulf coasts because it would suggest a more active season.

• As a reminder to expect the unexpected, the first fully tropical cyclone of the season — known simply as Tropical Depression Two — formed Thursday in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile... A likely El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues to develop, with unusually warm sea surface temperatures at play there, too.

• Waters have been steadily warming in a key area that helps climate scientists diagnose El Niño events, known as "Niño 3.4."
• Tropical weather patterns are also starting to shift somewhat, potentially hastening El Niño's arrival.
• Reliable computer models continue to project a moderate-to-strong El Niño is ahead, possibly by the height of hurricane season in the late summer and early fall.
• Usually, these events make for less active Atlantic hurricane seasons because of their effects on global weather patterns.

Yes, but: With climate change elevating ocean temperatures throughout the Atlantic, beyond the tropics, and large stretches of the expansive Pacific, there is nothing typical about this setup.

• For example, ocean temperatures have been at or close to record levels globally this spring.

Threat level: An additional risk of warmer water is the increased likelihood of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

• That has been happening with greater frequency and magnitude as the climate warms.

Context: Emphasizing the ocean conditions, a veteran hurricane forecast group at Colorado State upped its Atlantic outlook on Thursday to 15 named storms this season.

• This is an increase from 13 named storms in its previous forecast.
• Of that number, it predicts 7 will become hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. These are higher numbers, too.

What they're saying: Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 in Miami, said historically high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and globally, plus a potentially moderate-to-strong El Niño, have no real precedent.

• "We don't have many great analogs in part because global sea surface temperatures have never been so warm," he told Axios.

Yes, "permitting reform" measures in the debt ceiling bill heading for President Biden's signature are limited in scope, but they're substantively important in several ways, Axios Pro: Energy Policy's Nick Sobczyk reports.

Why it matters: Environmental review deadlines for projects may speed things up. But they're also going to prompt lawsuits, and new case law will need to be worked out.

The intrigue: The limited agreement may also make it harder to reach a future deal on transmission, a big Democratic priority that's connected to integrating renewables growth.

Subscribe to Axios Pro: Energy Policy for Nick's latest permitting coverage — and lots of scoops and vital analysis every week.

💼Generation Investment Management, the big Al Gore-led climate tech investment firm, has registered to lobby in the U.S. for the first time, Ben writes.

• What they're saying: "Given our view this is the defining decade for the climate crisis, we thought it prudent to ensure we are registered should we consider engaging with governments to be helpful," the company tells Axios.

• Of note: It's not unusual for investors to lobby, but this caught our eye because they're an important player in the climate finance space.
• Zoom in: The wide range of possible lobbying areas include emissions targets, corporate sustainability disclosures, and "barriers to net zero transition and sustainable capitalism," the filing states.

⚛️The Energy Department is providing $46 million combined to eight startups for R&D and design work on fusion reactors.

• Why it matters: Fusion has been a remote promise for decades, heralding almost limitless power without dangerous waste from traditional fission reactors. Recent advances have made the prospect less far-fetched.

The power of resilience in the face of catastrophic natural disaster is the focus of an Adam McKay-backed film premiering at the Tribeca Film Festival next week, Axios' Ayurella Horn-Muller writes.

Driving the news: "ASOG" pays homage to the real-life stories of LGBTQ-identifying Filipinos, as its global release commences with America's annual celebration of Pride.

Details: In "ASOG," we meet Jaya, a nonbinary Filipino comedian — and the film’s co-star and co-writer — based in the Philippines city of Tacloban.

• While venturing across the Philippines en route to a gay pageant, Jaya encounters fellow survivors of 2013's Super Typhoon Haiyan, who are still dealing with the storm's lasting impacts on land and livelihood.

What they're saying: "It is a story of hope, story of survival, story of struggle," Jaya tell Axios.

The big picture: Super Typhoon Haiyan killed thousands of people, left millions homeless and decimated infrastructure across the Philippines.

• Climate change is enabling typhoons and hurricanes to unleash more rainfall and is rapidly intensifying nature's strongest storms, writes Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Zoom in: Lirio Cordova of Manila, Philippines, tells Axios that even though it's been almost a decade since the typhoon hit, the effects feel "always fresh."

• "Super typhoon or drought ... climate change plays a very significant role in our daily life," Cordova says.
• The 2023 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report ranks the Philippines as the No. 1 most-disaster-prone country.

Read the rest

Ceibo, a Chilean startup with tech to extract more copper from existing mines, raised $30 million in series B financing led by the prominent VC firm Energy Impact Partners, Ben writes.

Driving the news: It can "economically and sustainably [unlock] supply of copper from sulfide ores, which traditionally are expensive and environmentally intensive to produce," the announcement states.

• The money will support multiple on-site trials, among other things.

Why it matters: Analyses from S&P Global (see above), the International Energy Agency and others show global climate goals require far more supply.

• Copper is used in EVs, renewable power, and transmission and grid infrastructure.

State of play: Meeting that demand faces huge hurdles that Ceibo can help overcome, backers say.

• "[D]eclining production, lower ore grades and the near-total inability to permit and construct new mines threatens a major shortage," said Energy Impact Partners' Shayle Kann via Twitter.

The bottom line: That crunch could derail climate progress "unless we find a way to economically unlock the vast copper reserves available at existing mines in the form of primary sulfides," he adds.

European efforts to abandon Russian gas have sped up renewables deployment — a lot, Ben writes.

🧮By the numbers: "Policy actions in many European countries [have] led us to revise our forecast for renewable capacity additions in the EU in 2023 and 2024 upwards by 40% compared with before the war," the International Energy Agency's latest market outlook states (emphasis added).

Go deeper: We explored the wider report in yesterday's newsletter.

"Honestly, a lot of these [electric vehicle] names are just trying too hard."

He's quoted in a story that asks "Why are electric car names so bad?," and offers receipts to back up the premise.

"The bZ4X. The EQE. The e:Ny1. Carmakers are all-in on electric options, but branding them has been a half-baked mashup of ideas," Bloomberg notes.