Fears have grown among National Weather Service advocates that the Trump administration is seeking to privatize or significantly downsize it — moves they say would undo a careful division of labor among government, academia and the private sector.

Why it matters: A balance has been struck over decades within the "weather enterprise" in which NOAA collects raw weather data from the Earth's deep oceans to space, disseminates forecasts through NWS and issues life-saving watches and warnings.

• With recent cuts to the agency, and further staff reductions potentially looming, some fear this balance will be knocked off kilter and that public safety will suffer.

What they're saying: "It is vital for the protection of life and property… that the existing weather enterprise be sustained and enhanced moving forward," Peter Neilley, director of weather forecasting sciences and technologies at The Weather Company, told Axios.

• He said it's simply "not an option" to stop issuing tornado warnings and other life-saving services 24/7 and that doing so requires a dedicated workforce.
• After the recent cuts at NOAA, the American Meteorological Society said: "This unique private-public partnership didn't happen by accident but by design and through persistent effort."

Zoom in: John Dean, CEO of the venture fund-backed weather observation and forecasting firm WindBorne, sees his company as helping NOAA gather data and tap into new, AI-driven models.

• He and other private weather industry representatives oppose cutting NOAA further or privatizing some of it.
• Dean's company launches high-altitude weather balloons that gather data and feed it into computer models, including its own system as well as NOAA's.
• In the wake of last month's NOAA layoffs of probationary employees — and even with the temporary re-hiring of those staffers — WindBorne is working with NOAA to plug data gaps caused by staffing shortages.

As much as Dean may tout his firm's AI forecasting prowess, he isn't interested in taking over NOAA's functions, he told Axios.

The other side: Some who favor a reduced role for NOAA argue its functions could be carried out commercially at a lower cost and higher quality.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he is against breaking up NOAA and privatizing the NWS, though he hasn't ruled out significant changes to make NOAA more efficient.

Friction point: Concerns stem from the NOAA section of Project 2025, a policy roadmap that the White House has been closely following at a number of agencies.

• It called for NOAA to be broken up and NWS to be turned into a data-gathering service with its other functions privatized.

Yes, but: Nearly every private weather forecasting company relies on the raw data that NOAA's satellites, ground observation stations, computer models and other infrastructure gather and disseminate for free.

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Chip maker Nvidia, tech players including Microsoft and big energy companies hope to better harness AI to improve power sector operations.

Why it matters: AI's energy thirst gets tons of headlines, but AI also has potential to make grids more efficient, help integrate new tech, and lower costs.

The latest: The nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute is today unveiling the Open Power AI Consortium.

• It looks to bring together companies, academic researchers and others to build and deploy solutions tailored to the electricity industry.
• Over two dozen companies are taking part in some way, including AWS, Oracle, Duke Energy, Southern Company and many other big players.

The big picture: "AI has the great potential to revolutionize the power sector by delivering the capability to enhance grid reliability, optimize asset performance, and enable more efficient energy management," EPRI President and CEO Arshad Mansoor said in a statement.

What's next: The plan is to develop AI models, datasets and more for industry use.

• Another goal: creating a "sandbox environment" in which utilities, startups, academics, and national labs collaborate.

By now you've probably read that a North Dakota jury returned a $660 million-plus verdict against Greenpeace over its role in protests against construction of the Dakota Access oil pipeline in the mid-2010s.

Why it matters: Damages that large, if upheld, threaten Greenpeace's U.S. existence and could affect its wider efforts.

• And legal analysts sympathetic to Greenpeace say the pipeline firm Energy Transfer's successful lawsuit threatens activism more broadly.

Catch up quick: The jury awarded damages on charges of defamation, interfering with Energy Transfer's business, conspiracy and more.

• There were various charges against Greenpeace's U.S. entities (Greenpeace Inc. and the Greenpeace Fund) and Greenpeace International.

What they're saying: "Unless overturned, this will not just chill future protests against fossil fuel infrastructure, it will crush it," environmental law specialist Patrick Parenteau said via email.

• "No group can afford bankruptcy to make a point," said Parenteau, an emeritus professor at Vermont Law and Graduate School.
• The Center for International Environmental Law criticized the "corporate weaponization of the legal system to silence protest and intimidate communities." Critics allege a threat to constitutional free speech rights.

The other side: Energy Transfer said it's a win for residents of Mandan, N.D., and elsewhere in the state who "had to live through the daily harassment and disruptions caused by the protesters who were funded and trained by Greenpeace."

• "It is also a win for all law-abiding Americans who understand the difference between the right to free speech and breaking the law," the company said.

What we're watching: Greenpeace said its fight against the verdict will include an appeal to the North Dakota Supreme Court.

Go deeper: The NYT has a detailed look.

🤔 Wait, what? Trade and tariffs weren't part of the discussion at yesterday's meeting between President Trump and oil and gas industry execs, a White House official tells Axios.

• Why it matters: The industry strongly supports Trump's overall energy agenda, but there's plenty of concern about the effects of his trade policy.
• The big picture: "President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to restore America's energy dominance and drill, baby drill," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement after the meeting with members of the American Petroleum Institute's executive committee.
• Catch up quick: Permitting and power to supply AI were among the topics, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told reporters afterward. DOE boss Chris Wright said "the tariff dialogue is ongoing" on Trump 2.0 policy overall.

🚦 Venture Global's big CP2 LNG project moved closer to reality with DOE's blessing yesterday to export to major markets.

• Why it matters: The approval, while expected, highlights the policy U-turn under Trump. CP2 had been ensnared in the Biden-era pause on new licenses.
• What we're watching: The Louisiana terminal still needs FERC's "notice to proceed" and a formal final investment decision. But that appears likely, and Venture has already begun off-site construction.

📃 An unreleased draft 2023 DOE study shows little effect on global greenhouse gas emissions from major growth in U.S. LNG exports.

• Why it matters: The draft Trump's DOE provided to House Republicans paints a different picture than DOE's big 2024 study. Last year's report warned of a significant emissions rise from "unfettered" exports. Bloomberg has more.

The Abu Dhabi-based wealth fund ADQ and U.S. heavyweight Energy Capital Partners aim to invest over $25 billion in projects to power data centers and other industrial consumers, Axios scooped yesterday.

Why it matters: Their new U.S.-focused, 50-50 partnership is stark evidence that AI's voracious power demand is attracting fresh capital as the nation's electricity needs rise.

Driving the news: A major goal is new gas-fired generation co-located with data centers, ECP's Doug Kimmelman said.

What's next: The partnership envisions 25 gigawatts worth of projects, with the first coming online in around three years.

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A new nonprofit environmental organization launches today that boasts some big names and strange bedfellows.

Why it matters: Nature is Nonpartisan intends to promote environmental policies that could be acceptable to a cross-section of the American people.

• This may include the White House at a time when President Trump has been dismantling numerous environmental protections.

Zoom in: The group includes on its board former Sierra Club president Michael Brune, as well as David Bernhardt, who served as Interior Secretary in President Trump's first term.

• Also with the group is Jack Selby of Thiel Capital.
• The group's website promotes the slogan, "Make America Beautiful Again," or MABA.

What we're watching: Policy specifics are light for now.

• The group's news release touts that it is "set to become the nation's most influential environmental organization by creating a large-scale, cross-partisan movement dedicated to practical, long-lasting solutions."

"The abyss has waited millions of years and it can wait for us to get this right."

Failure to meet a looming deadline to complete rules could enable applications to mine without formal safeguards, the outlet reports.