As the world (corners of it anyway!) digests President Trump's Day 1 energy moves, below are some big themes and variables we'll be tracking.

Why it matters: Trump's barrage of orders aim to tear out Biden-era climate and cleantech finance policies root and branch.

• He wants huge areas opened for drilling and to marshal powerful federal authorities behind boosting fossil fuel supplies and projects.

Catch up quick: Trump's orders declare an energy "emergency"; rescind Biden goals; offer plans to "unleash" production; promote Alaskan resources; and attack wind power.

A few big themes...

🆕 Trump 2.0 vs. Trump 1.0. The orders reflect, from the outside at least, something missing the first go-round.

• It's a methodical, sweeping approach enabled by four years of Trump-orbit and industry planning while out of power.

📚 It's a massive homework assignment. Those 2.0 chops will now be tested, bigly.

• Yes, some moves should have quick effect, like pausing remaining IRA funding and new wind leases and permits on federal lands and waters.
• But much is akin to a starting gun for the detailed bureaucratic slog of ending Biden policies and creating new ones.
• That applies to things like, say, repealing Biden's pro-EV auto emissions rules. And the emergency order tells agencies to begin scouring ways to use emergency powers like eminent domain and the Defense Production Act.
• Plus, environmental groups are already vowing to fight various moves in court.

💼 K Street faces new tests. The American Clean Power Association response is a window into how the renewables sector will navigate the new landscape.

• The short answer is "carefully," while the longer one arrives in their 400-word statement. It praises steps like faster permitting before criticizing "blanket measures to halt or impede" wind on federal lands and waters.
• It then reminds Trump that renewables are big business in red areas, noting states that voted for him are eight of the top ten in terms of reliance on wind power.

⚔️ Trump may aim for the heart of EPA climate rules. He's requiring EPA and other agencies to give the White House recommendations on the "legality and continuing applicability" of the 2009 "endangerment finding."

• That's the formal EPA conclusion that greenhouse gases threaten public health and the environment. It's the legal foundation for Clean Air Act climate rules following a landmark 2007 Supreme Court ruling.

🛢️The ball is in oil's court. We've written plenty about how U.S. production is unlikely to surge from already record levels anytime soon, with just modest growth expected in the well-supplied market.

• But longer term, Trump's orders will test the industry's appetite in future years for expensive exploration and development in frontier areas.
• The Day 1 moves attempt to repeal Biden-era restrictions on oil-and-gas leasing on the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts and key Alaskan offshore areas. It also seeks a far less restrictive regime on federal onshore lands in Alaska.

The bottom line: Supplanting Biden's energy agenda with Trump's won't happen overnight, but the new president wasted little time in getting started.

President Trump's Day 1 move to begin the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement for a second time sends a clear signal to international partners that the U.S. is hot and cold on climate action.

Why it matters: The world is a very different place today than in 2017, when Trump first moved to have the U.S. depart from the then-nascent agreement.

• There may be sufficient momentum now in both the Paris regime as well as the burgeoning clean energy sector that this will make only a symbolic difference.

Zoom in: To have the U.S., which is the second-largest emitter behind China, exit the agreement even temporarily has the potential for other countries to start viewing the U.S. as an unreliable partner on climate and potentially other issues as well.

• Last time the U.S. left, no other country followed that move. This time could be different, given the rightward, anti-climate policies tilt in some key countries.
• The departure comes just after the Earth's hottest year on record and as climate impacts are becoming more obvious, from the devastating California wildfires to landscape-shifting hurricanes like Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
• However, the move also comes when clean energy innovation and deployment have hit new highs.

The main beneficiary of a U.S. withdrawal and pro-fossil fuels policies domestically could be China, which already leads the U.S. in the clean tech space.

Reality check: Right now, the global community is off track on the road to the Paris Agreement's goals.

• If the U.S.'s step back from international climate engagement results in a slower decline in global emissions, it would mean even worse climate impacts.
• It would also ensure that the agreement's 2°C target, which many experts say is still feasible with rapid emissions cuts, could slip.

Read more

This graphic underscores Trump's heavy Day 1 focus on energy.

A once-in-a-generation snowstorm, tied to the polar vortex event across the Lower 48 states, is plastering the Gulf Coast with record-setting snow and ice today.

Why it matters: This region isn't equipped to cope with heavy snow, particularly when it is accompanied by continued cold following the storm.

Threat level: Up to 4 to 6 inches of snow is falling in the Houston metropolitan area and both the city's major airports are shut down, as are city schools.

• Last night, the NWS forecast office in Houston-Galveston described the storm as a "generational event" that is likely to eclipse the city's second-largest snowstorm on record.
• The NWS forecast office in Lake Charles, La., issued its first-ever blizzard warning today, for the combination of heavy snow and high winds.
• The snow will move east today, affecting coastal areas all the way to the Florida Panhandle and southern Carolinas.

New Orleans is also preparing for what may be the city's all-time biggest snowstorm based on modern records taken at their current location.

Stunning stat: The 5 to 7 inches forecast for New Orleans would exceed January snowfall so far in the Twin Cities.

Zoom out: Both the snowstorms, and another serious California fire weather threat today, are tied to the polar vortex-related Arctic blast affecting the majority of the Lower 48 states.

• Over longer timescales, studies suggest polar vortex shifts may be more likely due to human-caused climate change, but this is an area of active research.
• Also, extreme cold is expected to become less severe in a climate that is warming over time due to the burning of fossil fuels.

A lot happened since out last newsletter!

⚡ President Trump named GOP FERC member Mark Christie to chair the powerful independent commission.

• Why it matters: FERC's purview includes approving gas pipelines, LNG projects and more.

💵 One of DOE's last moves under Biden was final approval for a nearly $1 billion loan guarantee for Ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge lithium project in Nevada.

• Why it matters: Lithium is needed for EV batteries and other tech, and the U.S. is dependent on China and other foreign suppliers.
• What's next: It pushes Ioneer closer to a final investment decision as it secures remaining finance. It's targeting 2028 for production.

👍 EPA granted West Virginia regulators front-line control over underground carbon injection wells.

• Why it matters: CCUS backers see state "primacy" as a tailwind for projects. West Virginia joins Louisiana, Wyoming and North Dakota with EPA-approved state oversight.

👋 The Federal Reserve is leaving the climate-focused Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. Go deeper.

That's the Q4 financial charge offshore wind heavyweight Ørsted is taking due to higher costs for its planned Sunrise Wind project off New York, lower valuations for seabed leases, and more.

Why it matters: Offshore wind's financial hurdles remain, and the policy environment is getting tougher with Donald Trump's arrival.

• But the U.S. leases "continue to hold strategic optionality and value, based on the long-term potential of the US offshore market," Ørsted said.