Is Elon Musk's political profile and BFF status with President Trump hurting Tesla sales? Maybe — but it's complicated, analysts say.

Why it matters: Tesla is by far the U.S. EV sales leader and long the world's top seller (though it has recently been trading the lead with China's BYD).

• But Musk's powerful government role — combined with his very public rightward shift in recent years — creates a really unusual situation for a sitting CEO.

🏀 State of play: Tesla saw its first full-year sales dip as a mass-market seller in 2024.

• And new Cox Automotive U.S. data estimates a nearly 16% drop in January sales compared to December, although the firm notes that Tesla sales almost always fall in January.

Elsewhere in the world, the FT reports that sales in Germany, where Musk is supporting a hard-right party, fell almost 60% compared to January 2024.

• But their piece cites other factors behind lower January sales there, France and elsewhere in Europe. They include German consumers waiting for an upgraded Model Y, and lower subsidies in France and Germany.

Friction point: There have been protests at Tesla showrooms and even reports of vandalism, per various reports.

The intrigue: Cox also says used Tesla volumes on its Autotrader platform have reached an all-time high, but that likely reflects its major growth in new car sales (until last year's slight dip).

• "More new means more used," Mark Schirmer, Cox's director of industry insights & corporate communications, said in an email to reporters.
• "[C]urrent new and used sales reveals mostly normal patterns. This story is still being written," he writes.

💭 Our thought bubble: Axios' auto expert Joann Muller notes that Tesla has grown up and now faces the same trials as legacy automakers.

• Think normal stuff like sales dipping when factories shift to new models or losing ground in a market segment you once owned when competitors arrive.
• What is unusual is bumper stickers on your customers' cars that say things like "Anti-Elon Tesla Club."
• One has to wonder what Musk is doing to protect Tesla's brand while he's busy attacking Washington's bureaucracy.

What they're saying: iSeeCars.com executive analyst Karl Brauer, in an email, said Musk has alienated many supporters over the last year.

• But Musk has "elevated his visibility and popularity with many Americans that previously had little-to-no interest in him."

The bottom line: Lots of things affect sales, including expanded competition as new EVs arrive. But Tesla's numbers can't be untethered from Musk's politics and new federal power.

• "There's no way to know if this has been a net loss or net gain in Elon supporters, though I suspect he's lost more Tesla buyers than he's gained while gaining more overall fans than he's lost," Brauer writes.

Disclosure: Cox Automotive is owned by Cox Enterprises, which is the majority owner of Axios.

Tesla sales dipped in 2024 even though Q4 was a record.

But weighing the different reasons — aging lineup, more competition, Musk's politics, other variables — is more art than science.

Stratospheric balloon company Sceye recently completed a feat that heralds the increased use of a new layer of the atmosphere for human exploration, the company told Axios exclusively.

Why it matters: The company's helium-filled balloons can serve as an observation platform that occupies a niche between drones flying at lower altitudes and satellites orbiting above the planet.

• This makes them attractive for Earth-observing applications, including climate-related monitoring and research.

Zoom in: One of its balloon platforms flew the Explorer's Club flag into the stratosphere, keeping it aloft over the same location for more than 24 hours, thanks to the balloon's combination of solar panels, electric motors and battery storage units.

• The company says the balloons have advantages over satellites.
• They can take higher-resolution images more cheaply from comparatively lower altitudes, company founder and CEO Mikkel Vestergaard Frandsen said in an interview.
• They can also stay in position, or maneuver as needed, for months or even years.

Sceye, which has raised funds from the Saudi Mawarid Holding Company and Mexico's América Móvil, is currently conducting demonstration projects.

• Applications include detecting methane leaks from oil and gas facilities, down to the individual well or pipe level, and observing extreme weather and climate disasters such as wildfires.

Full story

📊 The latest U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iran "have yet to materially impact global oil supply," IEA said in its latest market outlook.

• The big picture: Biden officials tightened Russian sanctions early this year, but IEA cautions that "new deceptive shipping practices" could undermine them.
• What we're watching: Trump's sanctions posture in negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine. Bloomberg has more.

👀 The Financial Times has fresh info on the activist firm Elliott Investment Management's plans for struggling giant BP.

• The latest: They report Elliott has built up a nearly 5% stake worth roughly $4.7 billion and wants BP to "limit its future spending on renewables and sell off a wide swath of assets."

✂️ ICYMI: Chevron is laying off up to 20% of its global workforce in a move to "position the company for stronger long-term competitiveness." Full story.

↩️ EPA head Lee Zeldin said the agreement with the bank disbursing EPA's $20 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund grants must be "instantly terminated."

• Why it matters: It's among the biggest Biden-era climate grant programs.
• State of play: "EPA needs to reassume responsibility for all of these funds. We will review every penny that has gone out the door," he said on X. The Washington Post has more.

👀 The Senate's two most powerful Republicans — Majority Leader John Thune and whip John Barrasso — offered a new bill to end EV tax credits.

• Our thought bubble: Thune's co-sponsorship of Barrasso's bill may signal it's a GOP priority for adding to filibuster-proof budget legislation.

⛈️ NOAA is renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, in line with President Trump's recent executive order, in its weather forecasts.

The latest batch of White House nominations will bring more oil and gas industry vets into senior roles.

Why it matters: Boosting U.S. production is a White House priority.

Driving the news: President Trump is nominating Kathleen Sgamma, longtime head of the Western Energy Alliance, to head the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management.

• The industry group advocates for greater drilling access and opposed various Biden-era regulations.
• Tapping her for BLM, which oversees vast public lands, highlights the Trump team's push to expand opportunities for U.S. producers.

The big picture: Federal lands provide roughly 11% of U.S. oil production and a slightly smaller share of gas.

• Sgamma helped author the Interior chapter of the Project 2025 plan, which calls for easing restrictions — including on BLM lands in Alaska.

Trump also nominated Audrey Robertson to head DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

• Per LinkedIn, she was a longtime exec with Franklin Mountain Energy, an oil and gas firm acquired recently by Coterra Energy.
• She's on the board of Liberty Energy, the fracking services company founded and until recently led by now-DOE head Chris Wright.
• The two women are among a suite of new nominees for Energy, Interior and other agencies.

What we're watching: It's not clear how Robertson would steer EERE.

• But Liberty Energy has invested in geothermal and, more broadly, the oil and geothermal industries have lots of overlap. Wright's a fan of the tech.

That's IEA's new estimate of India's natural gas demand growth through 2030, while LNG imports are slated to double.

What we're watching: More discussion of new commercial LNG deals when PM Narendra Modi visits the White House later this week.