Axios Future of Defense

November 26, 2025
Happy early Thanksgiving. Ham is superior for holidays; turkey is best suited for a sandwich. Neither should be deep-fried. Fight me.
- Headed to the Reagan National Defense Forum? Me too! Reply to this email if you want to link.
⚓ Situational awareness: U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan yesterday said the service was canceling the last four ships in the Constellation-class frigate program. Industry, he said, was consulted.
Let's get going: China insights, a Moog-Aeon collaboration and a chat with Thomas "TRob" Robinson at Domino Data Lab.
Today's newsletter is 2,012 words, a 7.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Driscoll on the move
U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's impromptu role in negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine thrusts into the mainstream what defense circles have been whispering about: He's a Trump 2.0 power player.
Why it matters: It was Driscoll who formally presented the 28-point peace plan to Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky. He then held a flurry of meetings in Kyiv, joined the U.S. delegation in Geneva and jetted to Abu Dhabi to meet the Russians.
- President Trump yesterday said he was dispatching Steve Witkoff to Moscow and directing Driscoll to steer the next stage of talks with Kyiv.
- These are — in sum — not the typical responsibilities of an Army secretary, aka the service's No. 1 civilian.
The big picture: Driscoll's star is rising. It's boosted by:
- Trust inside the White House;
- A willingness to engage media outside of the Pentagon's preferred pool of conservative outlets;
- And a marathon travel circuit that has brought him to dozens of military installations and countries — forts Bragg and Huachuca and Wainwright, plus Belgium and Germany and Poland, among others — in mere months.
Driving the news: It was Vice President Vance's idea to tap Driscoll, who was already planning a visit to Ukraine to discuss weapons, industrial output and strategy, according to U.S. officials.
- Vance and Driscoll are former Yale Law classmates and have a long-standing relationship.
- Driscoll — colloquially known as "drone guy" for his work on military modernization — was ultimately accompanied by Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, Sergeant Major of the Army Michael Weimer, Army Europe and Africa boss Gen. Christopher Donahue and others.
- Members of the delegation were briefed on drones, missiles, vehicles, situational awareness tools and production, alongside all the diplomatic festivities.
What they're saying: "We got Driscoll, who's well-liked, who's well-trusted. He's connected with U.S. government leadership," a U.S. official told me.
- "He's got ... experience as a soldier; he's now leading the Army. So he's a military guy. Hopefully that will connect us better with the culture of the Ukrainians and Russians."
Zoom out: Friction between Driscoll and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously been reported. The Pentagon and the White House have denied such a dynamic.
More from Axios:
How Trump's 28-point plan for Ukraine shocked the world
2. China's grand plan
Xi Jinping is attempting to "construct an alternative world order" in which Beijing sits at the center and is propped up by fellow anti-democratic states, such as Russia and North Korea, according to the latest findings of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Why it matters: Such a friends-with-benefits network — as cutthroat as it may be — complicates the calculus of Washington and other capitals across the West.
- Beijing's long-term plan transcends sectors, industries and borders.
Driving the news: The commission published its annual report this month. It's a hefty read; the final product is more than 700 pages long, with dozens of recommendations offered. They include:
🔬 Studying China's support for the Russian war machine — including economic and technological aid as well as intelligence-sharing and cyber operations — and widely disseminating the findings.
- "Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have rapidly deepened their cooperation," the study reads.
- "A Russian collapse would significantly alter the global balance of power, weakening China's influence and strategic position."
🌌 Increasing funding for the U.S. Space Force to "establish space superiority against" China's counter-space arsenal, plus improving space wargaming and simulations.
- "If we agree that space is a warfighting domain, then we have to make sure we have the infrastructure so that our Guardians are able to operate in that space," commissioner Michael Kuiken told me.
- Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman in September told reporters he wanted to put aggressor satellites in orbit to mimic adversary tactics in training situations.
🏝️ Assessing U.S. capacity to respond to gray-zone aggression, especially in and around Taiwan, and reinforcing the Philippines as it deals with harassment on the seas and in cyberspace.
- China's People's Liberation Army entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone "a staggering 3,075 times in 2024," according to the commission.
- Beijing "is trying to find excuses to ramp up aggression against Taiwan," Taipei's Ambassador Alexander Yui told me in October.
- Separately, a China Coast Guard cutter and a PLA Navy destroyer in August rammed each other as they pestered other boats. Footage distributed by Manila went viral.
Zoom out: President Trump said Monday that he'd visit China at the invitation of Xi, who will visit the U.S. later in 2026.
- "Our relationship with China is extremely strong!" Trump shared on Truth Social. "This call was a follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea, three weeks ago."
The bottom line: "The Chinese Communist Party leadership has for a long time seen itself engaged in a struggle — with the United States, in particular, with the West, more generally," commissioner Aaron Friedberg told me.
- "It has in recent years, I think, believed that its position in that rivalry was getting stronger."
3. Exclusive: Moog mingles with Aeon
Moog, an established aerospace-and-defense supplier, and Aeon Industrial, a defense-tech upstart, are now collaborating, with plans to integrate their respective turrets and missiles.
Why it matters: Moog's products are widely used, including by the U.S. military. That:
- Quickly opens doors for Aeon, which in April announced a contract with the Army Applications Laboratory
- Means troops could get new loadouts or variants of existing weapons relatively quickly, on both manned and unmanned vehicles
Driving the news: The two companies are planning a test of their combined systems in January.
What they're saying: "Secretary Driscoll was right: It's unconscionable to send soldiers into combat with 30-year-old, obsolete systems," Aeon CEO Naweed Tahmas told me.
- "This delivers precise, lethal and cost-effective firepower for tomorrow's fight."
Zoom out: Aeon is also working with Ukrainian companies. Tahmas told me shipments are being readied ahead of trials next year.
Go deeper: Air Force wants industry ideas for $500,000 missile
4. Quick hits
🎖️ The Defense Department said it received "serious allegations of misconduct against" Mark Kelly — a former Navy captain and current Democratic Arizona senator — and that a "thorough review of these allegations" was underway.
- Why it matters: Kelly is one of a handful of Democratic lawmakers who shared a video calling on service members to disobey unlawful orders, my colleague Stephen Neukam reported. President Trump said the lawmakers should be "ARRESTED and PUT ON TRIAL."
- 💭 My thought bubble: Could this backfire politically and elevate Kelly ahead of 2028?
💥 X-Bow Systems installed the Additive Manufacturing of Solid Propellant system at its Luling, Texas, campus. Energetics will flow within 30-90 days.
- Why it matters: Energetics is a little-discussed chokepoint for the U.S. war machine.
- 💭 My thought bubble: The defense-tech boom in the Lone Star State is bigger than Austin.
🇵🇷 Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine visited Puerto Rico on Monday. The Pentagon said the trip was to thank U.S. troops "for their outstanding support to regional missions."
- Why it matters: Caine is America's top military officer. His visit coincides with a massing of force in and around the Caribbean, as well as a geopolitical game of chicken with Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
- 💭 My thought bubble: No such thing as coincidences!
🛜 Cyber startup Twenty announced a $38 million Series A. It was led by Caffeinated Capital. Other backers include General Catalyst and In-Q-Tel.
- Why it matters: "We are in an existential competition with the PRC, a highly determined adversary that seeks to remake the global order in its image," CEO Joe Lin said in a statement. "Cyberspace is the front line of our competition against China."
- 💭 My thought bubble: That's two substantial funding announcements for two cyber companies in just as many weeks. I broke news of Method Security's money, here.
5. Axios interview: Thomas Robinson
This week's conversation is with Thomas "TRob" Robinson, the COO at Domino Data Lab.
- We first met at a Ronald Reagan Institute defense industrial base event. The who-has-better-hair debate has raged ever since.
Why he matters: Robinson has years of experience with software, data, the workforce and the big-picture orchestration of it all. His company is also working with the U.S. Navy.
Q: When you hear "future of defense," what comes to mind?
A: A brilliant weekly newsletter. No, I'm kidding. But I am a subscriber.
- I don't know if this is antiquated or uncouth or that sort of thing, but I keep coming back to "Fourth Offset."
- I think the future of defense is software-defined warfare; the ability to get AI deployed on the battlefield; do it at the speed required; and well-governed for trust, so the warfighters actually use it.
- All the things that are interesting from a hardware perspective — like small autonomous vehicles — all require great capability for software delivery.
Q: When will wars be waged solely by robots?
A: Tongue in cheek? I think we'll have a fleeting moment as humanity watches the robots kill us all, if this ever happens. I think we've got to strive for the opposite.
- Humans are going to be needed, especially in defense; the decades of military expertise and know-how won't be replaced. Ethics is going to be a very challenging thing. It's already challenging enough for humans.
- We need humans and AI together, and it'll empower leaders to make faster, better decisions, without entirely replacing people.
Q: What's a national security trend we are not paying enough attention to?
A: Model tempo. The side that iterates fastest will win. Theaters change, threats change. Look at the pace of the technology developed in Ukraine. The pace is going to require rapid redeployment of AI and software.
- The Defense Department is already working to do 90-day sprints. We need day-to-day-sprint sorts of technology.
Q: How many emails do you get a day, and how do you deal with them?
A: I did the analysis.
- I get 90-150. That's the rough sort of range. I get so many I don't need to engage on, but I want to see what happens next.
- I bought a tool I love 10 years ago called Boomerang. I'm sure some guy makes it in his basement. $60 a year. Lets me bring emails back. "What happened? Let me see." I think it's built into everything now, but I love it.
Q: What time do you wake up? What does the morning routine look like?
A: I am the proud dad of twin 2-year-olds, so this has changed over the last two years. I used to wake up earlier. Now I'm up at like 7am.
- My wife and I both work in dual-use technology startups. We're both executives at dual-use technology startups. So we split handling the boys in the morning. I make the food. She gets them dressed.
- I'm checking email along the way. We're playing a little bit. But 7-9, we're all over the kids. Now I work out later in the day.
- But I'm the cook. I'm the quartermaster.
6. Check this out
Electra showed off its EL2, above, in Virginia on Nov. 20.
- I was the only reporter on scene.
Why it matters: The hybrid-electric aircraft flew whisper-quiet. It's capable of taking off and landing in ultra-short distances.
- This has real implications for contested logistics.
What's next: Electra is building the EL9, expected to carry 1,000 pounds over 1,000 miles. It has secured more than 2,000 preorders.
- Lockheed Martin's clandestine Skunk Works division has also expressed interest in the aircraft.
Go deeper: Grid Aero debuts with cargo-hauling Lifter-Lite drone
Shoutout to Dave Lawler for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing.
👋🏼 Thanks, as always, for reading and sharing. Tell your friends to subscribe here.
Sign up for Axios Future of Defense







