Crash in South China Sea underscores "incredibly tense" situation
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Few videos in recent memory have spread as quickly and generated as much bewilderment among defense types as those capturing the collision of Chinese vessels as they harassed boats in the South China Sea.
Why it matters: The mid-August incident, documented and amplified by the Philippines, is emblematic of Beijing's naval buildup and extraterritorial aggression.
Driving the news: Over the course of several days, reports emerged that:
- A China Coast Guard cutter and a People's Liberation Army Navy destroyer rammed each other, rendering one unseaworthy.
- A Chinese fighter jet intercepted a Cessna turboprop with journalists aboard.
- China claimed to have scared a U.S. warship, the USS Higgins, away from the contested Scarborough Shoal. (The Navy rejected this characterization, instead calling it an undeterred freedom of navigation operation.)
Threat level: The energy in the region is "incredibly tense," Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told Axios on the heels of a trip to Palawan in the Philippines.
- There, Young met with defense officials and mariners. During a flyover, he saw "quite a significant Chinese presence interacting with — quite hostile — our aircraft, other aircraft and vessels in the region."
- The senator this month introduced the Harpoon Act, meant to expand joint patrols and intel-sharing opportunities.
- "I think the Filipinos, working with the United States, are basically writing the playbook," he said. "They are trying to establish deterrence, which is the only thing the Chinese listen to."
The big picture: Today's conditions are decades in the making.
- The U.S. is prioritizing — or attempting to, despite fights elsewhere — the Indo-Pacific. Both Trump and Biden administrations have relayed the stakes of the theater.
- Washington's relationship with Manila grows closer, between military exercises like Balikatan, which drew 14,000 troops this year, and millions of dollars poured into Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites. Plus, there are plans for a new fast-boat facility.
- "The U.S. has become more willing to put boots on the ground, even if in a rotational presence or doing exercises," Christian Le Miere, the CEO of defense consultancy Arcipel, told Axios.
- "There's been a step change in U.S. presence and will to deploy, and with that comes a tacit suggestion that the South China Sea sits within the mutual-defense agreements the U.S. and Philippines have."
The other side: China is plowing ahead with land reclamation, military fortification and shipbuilding. The nearby waters are saturated with vessels.
- The Pentagon's 2024 assessment of Chinese activity noted 3,200 acres of land were added to the Spratlys, now dotted with dozens of hangars, docks, antenna arrays, radars and hardened shelters for missiles.
The bottom line: "There's a lot of speculation as to why China is doing this," Ann Kowalewski, a senior fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, told Axios.
- "Is it to secure natural resources? Is it to push the U.S. and its allies out of the waters? Is it just that China has the military capability to do so? I think the answer is all of the above."
Go deeper: Ship-killing NMESIS heads to Philippines as China protests Typhon
