Axios Crypto

January 09, 2025
Hello! Futures buyers on Deribit expect good times ahead, but not till March. If you were hoping for an Inauguration Day surge, you might be disappointed.
- What's your read? [email protected]
🚨 Situational awareness: House Financial Services Chair French Hill announced leaders for the committee's various subcommittees this morning, including Rep. Bryan Steil (R.-Wis.) for the digital assets subcommittee.
Today's newsletter is 1,077 words, a 4-minute read.
1 big thing: 🤝 Advisers and bitcoin ETFs
The attitudes of financial advisers toward the crypto asset class are changing fast.
The big picture: More than half of FAs in a recent survey say the presidential election has made them more likely to invest in crypto, and 99% of those who have made allocations for clients plan to hold on or increase it.
- This time last year, in a survey from the same folks, hardly any advisers believed bitcoin ETFs would even be approved this year.
Zoom in: The survey of 400 advisers was issued by Bitwise, a crypto index fund manager that offers BITB, one of the top 5 bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
- As the firm continues to push the ETF as an investment vehicle, it released the survey with VettaFi to see where advisers stood.
- Nearly all of them, 96%, say they have gotten questions about crypto.
The intrigue: Most advisers still can't recommend bitcoin ETFs to their clients, because they work in-house for one of the big investment firms that haven't officially sanctioned any bitcoin funds yet.
- This is not that unusual, Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, tells Axios. A lot of times the big guys like to wait a year or so before recommending a new exchange-traded product.
Yes, but: He also noted that they tend to make an exception for a hot ETF launch, and the bitcoin ETFs have been the hottest. So it is a little strange.
- Morgan Stanley, for one, reportedly allows its advisers to recommend BlackRock and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs to certain clients.
What he's saying: Hougan doesn't believe the early days are over for bitcoin as an investment until its market cap trumps that of gold.
- With gold's market cap at $18 trillion against bitcoin's nearly $2 trillion, that suggests a lot more room to run.
Friction point: Hougan said we've gone through four years of an administration hostile to cryptocurrency, with an investment regulator who takes an especially dim view.
- That was likely to make the big firms nervous. When and if Paul Atkins gets seated in the SEC, that should be enormously encouraging to the big firms putting bitcoin ETFs on their approved lists.
What we're watching: How bad the next bear market will be.
- Every contraction in crypto has seen an 80%-90% drop in bitcoin price, but, as we've said, it seems like the ETF era could soften that next drop.
- "I think it will be shallower and that it will come back faster and that will mean something is different," Hougan concurred.
The bottom line: "The reality is 95% of the world still doesn't own bitcoin, and the vast majority of institutional investors still don't own bitcoin," Hougan said. "Until that changes, it's still early."
2. 💭 Thought bubble: Summer time
We put out the word to crypto lobbyists asking who might be the next CFTC chair, and the ones who have given us the best intel amid the transition say: current Commissioner Summer Mersinger.
Between the lines: It does not look like there's been any pushing of the Mersinger narrative out there, which — it seems — is what the Trump team prefers.
- Paul Atkins, now the nominee for SEC chair, did not get a lot of chatter either, and then he was the guy. (We ranked him higher than others before he got the nod.)
Zoom in: Mersinger worked for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, which could stand her in good stead.
- She was appointed by President Biden, which would allow the White House to claim some bipartisan points, too.
- Mersinger has been critical of regulation by enforcement, such as in her dissent against her agency's actions against Uniswap Labs, the creator of the most popular decentralized exchange, and in the action against Bzx/Ooki DAO.
- In fact, she's been criticizing regulation by enforcement going back to at least 2023.
The bottom line: We're calling Mersinger. Stay tuned.
3. 💬 Quoted: Parting shot
"Overall, the digital asset market has continued to integrate into traditional financial institutions without comprehensive regulatory guardrails. Concerns regarding customer protections ... and even financial stability are intensifying in the absence of federal legislation."— CFTC chair Rostin Behnam, in his final speech as agency chief.
4. 🦊 Warren watch
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is tapping Jon Donenberg, a deputy on President Biden's National Economic Council, to be the Democratic staff director on the Senate Banking Committee.
Why it matters: Corporate America — not to mention the banking industry — is bracing for Warren in her new role as the committee's ranking member.
- Warren wants to use her new position to help define her party's response to the deep concerns Americans have about the economy and inflation.
- By reuniting with Donenberg, her longtime top policy and political aide, Warren will hit the ground running in the 119th Congress, with big plans to highlight her carrot-and-stick approach to lowering costs.
- It's another signal that Warren will use her high-profile position to advocate for direct subsidies to consumers and eviscerate Corporate America if she thinks they are ripping off consumers.
Between the lines: The return of Donenberg is an indication that ranking-member Warren will be very similar to rank-and-file Warren.
Zoom out: During former President Obama's first term, Warren played a key role in establishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and advocated for holding banks to account for the causes of the 2008 financial crisis.
- After losing to Biden in the 2020 primary, she turned her focus to seeding the Biden administration with some of her trusted protégés.
- At the White House, Donenberg focused on Biden's response to junk fees and price gouging.
- They have both advocated for scrutinizing corporate mergers, like the failed Kroger-Albertsons deal.
Zoom in: At the White House, Donenberg played a key role in Biden's plan to build the country's industrial base — and bolster the middle class — as a way to increase America's standing in the world.
- That background will bring a national security element to Warren's economic agenda.
- Inside the White House, he also advocated for bipartisan stablecoin legislation, which will be a heated topic in 2025 after it was left unfinished last year.
5. 🗞️ Catch up quick
👨⚖️ SEC v. Coinbase will be delayed as an appellate court considers how the Howey test applies to multiple cases. (Blockworks)
🦹♀️ Wallet drainer malware hoovered up $500 million last year. (Security Week)
🏛️ A federal judge ordered an early bitcoiner to turn over private keys to the feds to pay his tax arrears. (Bloomberg)
👍 A court approved the sale of a massive trove of Silk Road BTC held by the U.S. government. (Decrypt)
This newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Carolyn DiPaolo.
🎞️ I'm gonna be honest, y'all, my mind has been on Krypto lately, as well as on crypto. —Brady
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