The Texas primaries this month offered Democrats some hope that Republicans' mid-decade redistricting last year won't net the GOP all five seats the party wants to gain in the U.S. House.

Why it matters: Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, kicked off a nationwide redistricting war for control of the House — but the party leaned on past gains with Hispanic voters in South Texas that are showing signs of cracking.

The big picture: The Democratic Party is pouring resources into four races in majority-Latino districts that, if won by Democrats, would result in a net gain of just one seat for Republicans.

• In those districts, Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout, but experts said it's unclear whether Democrats can carry that momentum into November.

Zoom in: Out of five seats the GOP redrew as pickup opportunities, two (Districts 9 and 32) in the Houston and Dallas areas appear ripe for Republican victories. Democrats believe they can hold onto another two seats in South Texas (Districts 28 and 34), where the incumbents are running for reelection.

• The fifth redrawn seat, the San Antonio-area 35th District, features primary runoffs on both sides. Democrats aim to make it a battleground.

Plus: The 15th District in South Texas is held by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg), but Democrats think they have a strong candidate in Tejano star Bobby Pulido.

State of play: There's "no way" the GOP can take all five seats they targeted, Jon Taylor, political science department chair at UT San Antonio, tells Axios. "Especially in what's appearing to be a wave election and a backlash by Latino voters."

Yes, but: Democrats have fallen behind on fundraising in some districts like the 15th and 35th.

The other side: "Democrats can try to bluff their way through the headlines, but they don't have credible recruits, they're burning through cash, and they're scrambling just to protect their own vulnerable incumbents," Christian Martinez, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, tells Axios in a statement.

The districts

Democrats must commit to tailored, economically focused messaging to win back Latino voters in the 2026 midterms, Univision executive Ignacio Meyer said at Axios House during SXSW.

Why it matters: Latinos — the up-for-grabs voting force that could decide 2026's razor-thin congressional battles — propelled President Trump's 2024 victory with record GOP support, about 48% nationally.

• "Hispanic voters are largely sophisticated or largely independent, and they want to be swayed by issues," Meyer said.

State of play: Meyer called it a "big disconnect" that politicians ignore Latinos' cultural clout in news, sports and music, despite their explosive growth.

• Politicians oversimplify a non-monolithic audience, the Univision exec said, adding that issues resonate differently for someone on the West Coast with Mexican parents than for a Caribbean immigrant.

U.S. Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin), who also spoke at the SXSW panel on voting power in Latino communities, said Trump's share of Latino support in the last election exposed Democrats' working-class drift.

• "Folks said, 'Are Democrats going to make sure that I'm not having to check my bank statement, my bank account, before I go to the grocery store?'" Casar said.

Between the lines: In five rural majority-Latino Texas counties, Democratic primary turnout exceeded 2024 general election votes — unseen since 1992 — Casar said.

• "And so guys, this is really a moment for us here in Travis County, where we're sitting right now," the former Austin City Council member said.
• Casar added that there's an opportunity to win for Democrats "if people know we're going to bring down their prices and put money in their pocket."

💸 Serena Williams told founders at Axios House that one of the toughest hurdles for early-stage entrepreneurs is learning how to sell themselves. (Axios)

✈️ Airport officials urged SXSW travelers to arrive at the airport at least three hours early as TSA lines wrapped outside on Friday. (KXAN)

🏭 A developer is seeking tenants for a shovel-ready industrial park in Cedar Park, signaling continued growth in the region's logistics and warehouse market. (Austin Business Journal 🔒)

Here's some non-SXSW fun happening around town this week.

Monday

🀄️ Play your tiles at the Mahjong meetup at the Twin Oaks library branch. 5:30-7:45pm, free.

Tuesday

⚾️ Cheer on the University of Texas baseball team as they take on Tarleton State. 6:30pm at Disch-Falk Field. Tickets start at $6.

Wednesday

🎙️ Laugh along to a live recording of the comedy gameshow "SideHustle," starting at 8pm at Pershing Hall. Advance tickets run $25.

Thursday

💃🏽 Sign up for a beginners tango lesson at Esquina Tango, 7:40-8:40pm. Tickets run $18 per person.

🎈1 big thing: For five years, Axios has delivered smart, trustworthy local news to communities like yours — and we're just getting started.

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Your newsletter helps you stay informed and connected. Help us power the next five years of Axios Austin by becoming a member today.

Headed to SXSW today and looking for some interesting panels, screenings or live music?

• Check out these fun options.

👾 Listen to Unico's Tech Advisor Davi Reis as he explores how to fight fraud, detect synthetic media and build trust. 10am at Hilton Austin Downtown.

🎬 Catch the premiere of "Pretty Lethal," a thriller where five ballerinas are stranded in a remote forest. 11am at the Paramount.

🎶 Hear Icelandic artist Rakel. 7:50pm at Inn Cahoots.

🍿 Watch the world premiere of "Basic," starring Ashley Park and Leighton Meester. 9pm at the Paramount.