Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is suggesting recent school board and mayoral election results across the state signal hope for Democrats running in statewide races — but politics watchers tell Axios the suggestion is tenuous.

Why it matters: No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, but Democratic candidates are eager to show this year is different.

Driving the news: Hinojosa, a state lawmaker from Austin who faces Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, declared in a news release that election results this month have illustrated "the coalition that's going to send Greg Abbott packing in November."

State of play: Hinojosa cited local election results across the state.

• In Travis County, for example, Tiffany Bennett and Natalie Nugent, who had the support of Lake Travis Voices for Progress, ousted GOP-aligned incumbents on the Lake Travis ISD Board of Trustees.

Yes, but: GOP-aligned candidates still had clout in some suburban areas. In the Eanes ISD board election, also in Travis County, two of the three candidates supported by GOP-aligned interests won.

The big picture: Special elections across the country have reflected Democratic voters' enthusiasm — or, put another way, desperation — in the Trump era.

• In January, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas Senate district in Tarrant County, beating a President Trump-back Republican.

The other side: "Every election, Democrats claim Texas is turning blue. Every election, Texans reject their radical agenda of open borders, boys in girls' sports, higher taxes, and soft-on-crime policies," Eduardo Leal, spokesperson for the Abbott campaign, tells Axios. "This November will be no different."

The intrigue: Austin McCarty, an Austin-based government affairs adviser for the law firm K&L Gates and who previously worked for the Texas Association of Counties, tells Axios that Democrats are "taking a page out of the Republican playbook in the Obama years."

• "Republicans became hyperfocused on municipal, county and school district races. That led to results farther up the ballot. ... Wins have a way of creating momentum for a party."

Local elections results can indicate grassroots enthusiasm, but they're also of limited value for predicting statewide races in November, experts tell Axios.

Reality check: The May 2 elections Hinojosa cites (👆) were nonpartisan — that is, the candidates are not running on the ballot as Republican or Democratic, one of the reasons the results could have limited implications for November, Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, tells Axios.

• "At the end of the day, these races are about local issues," he says. In a state that has voted for Republicans the last 30 years, elections could be different when an R or D is by the candidates' names, he says.
• Also, turnout is dramatically lower in May elections — typically in the single-digits — compared to 45.9% of registered voters in the 2022 midterm election.

Follow the money: A lot more money will be at play, too. Republican statewide candidates in Texas typically have more money available than Democrats.

• Case in point: As of late February, per the latest campaign finance reports, Texans for Greg Abbott had $95 million on hand. Hinojosa's campaign had $617,635.

Between the lines: For Hinojosa "to have any hope, she has to create some level of belief among Democratic donors that she has some potential for victory," Jones tells Axios.

The bottom line: Abbott leads Hinojosa by 6 percentage points among registered voters in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.

• Yes, but: That's a narrower margin than in the group's February poll, which showed Abbott leading by 10 points.

Share this story

🖥️ Nevada-based Switch plans to start construction this summer on a second data center in the Round Rock area. (Community Impact)

🦠 Austin reported its first measles case since last year. (KUT)

🖼️ Austin arts leaders say the city incorrectly withheld millions of dollars from the Art In Public Places program for years by using an incorrect formula to determine distribution of monies. (Austin Current)

Here's what we're spying this workweek.

Monday

🪣 Join in on the "Kicking the Bucket Listening Club" — a book club for your ears that involves basket weaving, shared listening and an exploration of end-of-life values. At the Hampton library branch in Oak Hill. 6pm, free.

Tuesday

🎥 Watch "McCabe & Mrs. Miller," a 1971 Robert Altman film with Warren Beatty and Julie Christie, about a gambler and a prostitute going into business together in the Old West. AFS Cinema, 7pm. $14.

Wednesday

🤣 Head to the East Austin Comedy Club for its Hump Day Haha's night. Shows at 7pm. $13.50.

Thursday

🎶 Rock to the Wonder Women of Country night at the 04 Center, with Kelly Willis, Melissa Carper, and Brennen Leigh, featuring music they recorded in Austin. 8pm, tickets start at about $40.

Reliable local reporting helps you stay connected to the people, decisions and changes shaping your community.

Why it matters: Your support helps our newsroom continue delivering the clear, trustworthy coverage you rely on every day.

💙 Become a member today. You'll help support the journalism that keeps your community informed and engaged.

Help keep strong local journalism thriving in your community.

Austin Mayor Kirk Watson has adopted two pups from Austin Bulldog Rescue and he hasn't settled on names yet.

Zoom in: One dog, a male English bulldog, probably 2 years old, "looks like a baby bear to me," Watson wrote in the latest edition of his Watson Wire newsletter.

• The second, a tan female French bulldog, is likely a year old.

What they're saying: "I'm as goofy and excited as a little kid about getting new puppies," Watson wrote.

• The new dogs "need love and care, and it's going to be fun to be loved by them."

Flashback: Watson has had this combination of dogs before, named Doc and Lola, both now gone.

📬 Tell us: What should the mayor name his new dogs?

• Hit reply to this email, and we'll pass on our favorites — and publish them in an upcoming newsletter.