We're now in uncharted, historic waters: President Biden — backed by first lady Jill Biden and his convicted son, Hunter, who's serving as de facto gatekeeper for longtime friends — says that nothing, besides an act of God, will persuade him to quit his re-election campaign, Mike and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• But outside Biden's protective bubble, a fast-growing number of Democrats are praying for —and plotting — a more earthly intervention. They want everyone from the Obamas to congressional leaders to beg Biden to drop out by this Friday.

Why it matters: Biden and his Democratic critics share one common passion — the intensity, certainty and irreversibility of their positions. Both plan fierce public and private campaigns to see who buckles.

• It won't be him, Biden says publicly and privately. On a call yesterday with his national campaign co-chairs, Biden sounded full-speed ahead. He vowed to spend more time talking directly to voters, whether at town halls or press conferences.

🖼️ The big picture: Democratic lawmakers have gone from shock, to sadness, to madness since the debate 10 days ago. These Democrats, further deflated by Biden's high-stakes ABC interview, believe there's nothing he can do to reverse the damage — or his aging.

• "The sh*t is going to hit the fan on Monday, when Congress returns," a House Democrat told us. "People are scared about their own races. But they're also worried about the country, and about democracy."
• Lawmakers were antsy enough about Biden during their Fourth of July break this past week. There'll be even greater torque when they're venting, raging and plotting in person.

"Every single person not named Biden," or paid by the president, recognizes how deep a hole he's in, said a top Democratic operative who's talking nonstop to elected officials.

• David Axelrod, former President Obama's political architect, described Biden's posture in an opinion piece yesterday: "Denial. Delusion. Defiance." Axe said a growing chorus of Democrats is "fearful of an electoral disaster."

🗞️ A front-page story in today's Washington Post quotes an adviser to major donors as estimating that "for every 10 people who think he should exit, one thinks he should stay." The story says multiple people "publicly vouching for Biden, at the behest of the White House and campaign, privately say there's no path." (Saved ya 2,550 words, 9½ mins.!)

• 📊 Biden got a rare bit of encouraging polling news yesterday: The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states found he now leads Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. The candidates are statistically tied in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Biden remains behind in must-win Pennsylvania, where he's campaigning today.

Behind the scenes: Lawmakers from all factions of the party tell Axios that big donors and key constituents have grave concerns about Biden's strength.

• The issue is breaking through in Normal America: One swing-state lawmaker told us that a monthly forum back home is usually consumed by community issues. Yesterday, everyone wanted to talk about Biden's age.

Column continues below.

Don't be fooled by the small number of House Democrats who have publicly called for Biden to quit the race. Five out of 213 is minuscule. It's complicated politics to say your sitting president needs to go: If he stays, Biden and voters would never forget, Mike and Jim write.

• But based on Axios reporters' conversations with dozens of House members and senators, it's clear that scores are close to speaking out or signing letters telling Biden it should be over. These conversations will intensify this week.

🏛️ The next sign of movement on the Hill will come this afternoon, when House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) holds a Zoom with ranking members of committees.

• Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who's organizing a group of Senate Democrats to discuss Biden's future, is pushing to meet tomorrow evening.
• Everyone's watching Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who would have the stature to tell Biden it's over.

🔭 Zoom out: Many top Democrats hope Biden will make his move by Friday because of the rush of events that soon will soak up whatever attention Americans will give the news as summer wanes.

• If Biden were to endorse Vice President Harris as the nominee, she'd need time to ramp up and pick a running mate. And if Biden didn't anoint, there'd be a frenzy among governors and ambitious Democrats to try to win the nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago.
• "Every day that goes by is a disaster," the operative said.

🗓️ What's next: Biden plans a Thursday afternoon news conference, as NATO leaders wrap up a three-day summit in Washington. The Western democratic leaders will be experiencing a presidential crisis in real time. Then look at how jammed America's calendar is:

• Over the next eight days, Trump is expected to name his running mate.
• The four-day Republican convention opens in Milwaukee a week from tomorrow — Monday, July 15.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress on July 24.
• The Summer Olympics open in Paris on July 26 and run 17 days, through Aug. 11.
• Then the Democratic convention opens in Chicago on Aug. 19.

🔎 Between the lines: Something has to give. Biden believes a strong week at NATO, a powerful performance at Thursday's press conference and private pressure from his allies will quiet the storm.

• His Democratic critics believe rising calls for him to quit, relentless pressure on Hill leaders to join them, and private pressure on Biden will ease — or force — the president out of the race.

The bottom line: Biden holds the power. If he doesn't blink, he'd be daring Democrats to wage a public fight at the convention to undo the will of voters 11 weeks before Election Day. It would tear apart the party, the convention, Biden's legacy. The president believes that in the end, his critics will cave.

• Axios' Andrew Solender and Stephen Neukam contributed reporting.

Read this week's columns ... Share this column ... Go deeper: "Resilience Has Fueled Biden's Career. But So Has Defiance," by N.Y. Times' Katie Rogers (gift link).

NEW ORLEANS — Vice President Harris focused on rousing voters, mentioning President Biden only once, during a half-hour Q&A at the 30th Essence Festival of Culture, Axios New Orleans' Chelsea Brasted reports.

• Why it matters: Essence Fest is an enormous cultural crossroads for Black women, and Harris has been a regular visitor for years. This time, the spotlight was brighter, since President Biden's debate performance raised her as the top alternative for the Democratic nomination.

In a "Chief to Chief" conversation, Essence Ventures CEO Caroline Wanga gave Harris a chance to reintroduce herself.

• That included a reminder of her work as a prosecutor, which she presented as a foil to former President Trump's status as a convicted felon, and her work in the Biden administration to protest the overturning of Roe.
• It also included plans for the next term — keeping medical debt from being used to calculate credit scores, raising the federal minimum wage, and addressing the cost of child care.

Harris stopped short of asking for support for Biden by name.

• "This is probably the most significant election of our lifetime. We have said it every four years, but this here one is it," Harris said. "In 122 days, we each have the power to decide what kind of country we want to live in."

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) said during the previous panel that Harris is "a sister who came here to be with us today" — and added that after the election, "we're gonna have a sister to still be in the White House fighting for us and making a difference."

• Harris walked onstage to Beyonce singing: "I'mma keep runnin' 'cause a winner don't quit on themselves."

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Justice Amy Coney Barrett is establishing herself as a new intellectual center of gravity on the Supreme Court, Axios court-watcher Sam Baker writes.

• Why it matters: This is what Barrett's biggest fans predicted when she was first nominated — that she would not only be a solid right-leaning vote, but an influential justice with the potential to shape the broader contours of conservative legal doctrine.

Barrett is just as conservative as everyone knew she would be. She joined the court's rulings overturning Roe v. Wade, expanding gun rights and curtailing the powers of the federal government.

• But she's beginning to separate herself from the pack in important ways:

1. She seems less willing than some of her colleagues to fast-forward through parts of the legal process just to reach a particular outcome.
2. She has explicitly criticized some of the ways other conservatives use historical analysis to solve modern questions.
3. In the term that just ended, her positions were significantly less favorable to former President Trump than those of any other Republican appointee.

What we're watching

• Every justice has their own idiosyncrasies, but only a small number can build majorities around them in any given case. Fewer still can turn their unique judicial philosophies into a lasting, widely used legal doctrine. She may not become one of them, but there's a roadmap for how she could.
• Barrett's willingness to write her own concurring and dissenting opinions will help. Some of her colleagues don't do that very often, choosing to simply sign onto either the majority or the dissent without articulating their own thinking.

The bottom line: She is the youngest conservative on the court. She will still be there after Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito are gone and new, more junior justices cycle in.

• Keep reading.

The two-day, 2.2-mile NASCAR Chicago Street Race is roaring through Grant Park this weekend.

• Why it matters: The Chicago race, now in its second year, is the first NASCAR Cup Series street race in the stock-car giant's 77-year history.

The race takes drivers past — and through — downtown landmarks on Michigan Avenue, South Columbus Drive and South DuSable Lake Shore Drive, with the start-finish line near Buckingham Fountain. (Go deeper)

• Yesterday's winner was New Zealand's Shane van Gisbergen, 35, in the No. 97 Chevy Camaro.

More photos. ... Carrie Shepherd's What to Know ... Get Axios Chicago.