Behind the Curtain: Unbendable Biden vs. breaking-point Dems

Why it matters: Biden and his Democratic critics share one common passion — the intensity, certainty and irreversibility of their positions. Both plan fierce public and private campaigns to see who buckles.

• It won't be him, Biden says publicly and privately. On a Saturday call with his national campaign co-chairs, Biden sounded full-speed ahead. He vowed to spend more time talking directly to voters, whether at town halls or press conferences.

The big picture: Democratic lawmakers have gone from shock, to sadness, to madness since the debate 10 days ago. These Democrats, further deflated by Biden's high-stakes ABC interview, believe there's nothing he can do to reverse the damage — or his aging.

• "The sh*t is going to hit the fan on Monday, when Congress returns," a House Democrat told us. "People are scared about their own races. But they're also worried about the country, and about democracy."
• Lawmakers were antsy enough about Biden during their Fourth of July break this past week. There'll be even greater torque when they're venting, raging and plotting in person.

"Every single person not named Biden," or paid by the president, recognizes how deep a hole he's in, said a top Democratic operative who's talking nonstop to elected officials.

• David Axelrod, former President Obama's political architect, described Biden's posture in an opinion piece Saturday: "Denial. Delusion. Defiance." Axe said a growing chorus of Democrats is "fearful of an electoral disaster."

A front-page story in Sunday's Washington Post quotes an adviser to major donors as estimating that "for every 10 people who think he should exit, one thinks he should stay." The story says multiple people "publicly vouching for Biden, at the behest of the White House and campaign, privately say there's no path." (Saved ya 2,550 words, 9½ mins.!)

• Biden got a rare bit of encouraging polling news Saturday: The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states found he now leads Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. The candidates are statistically tied in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Biden remains behind in must-win Pennsylvania, where he's campaigning Sunday.

Behind the scenes: Lawmakers from all factions of the party tell Axios that big donors and key constituents have grave concerns about Biden's strength.

• The issue is breaking through in Normal America: One swing-state lawmaker told us that a monthly forum back home is usually consumed by community issues. On Saturday, everyone wanted to talk about Biden's age.

State of play: Don't be fooled by the small number of House Democrats who have publicly called for Biden to quit the race. Five out of 213 is minuscule. It's complicated politics to say your sitting president needs to go: If he stays, Biden and voters would never forget.

• But based on Axios reporters' conversations with dozens of House members and senators, it's clear that scores are close to speaking out or signing letters telling Biden it should be over. These conversations will intensify this week.

Zoom in: The next sign of movement on the Hill will come Sunday afternoon when House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) holds a Zoom with ranking members of committees.

• Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who's organizing a group of Senate Democrats to discuss Biden's future, is pushing to meet Monday evening.

• Everyone's watching Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who would have the stature to tell Biden it's over.

Zoom out: Many top Democrats hope Biden will make his move by Friday because of the rush of events that soon will soak up whatever attention Americans will give the news as summer wanes.

• If Biden were to endorse Vice President Harris as the nominee, she'd need time to ramp up and pick a running mate. And if Biden didn't anoint, there'd be a frenzy among governors and ambitious Democrats to try to win the nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago in mid-August.
• "Every day that goes by is a disaster," the operative said.

🗓️ What's next: Biden plans a Thursday afternoon news conference, as NATO leaders wrap up a three-day summit in Washington. The Western democratic leaders will be experiencing a presidential crisis in real time. Then look at how jammed America's calendar is:

• Over the next eight days, Trump is expected to name his running mate.
• The four-day Republican convention opens in Milwaukee a week from tomorrow — Monday, July 15.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress on July 24.
• The Summer Olympics open in Paris on July 26 and run 17 days, through Aug. 11.
• Then the Democratic convention opens in Chicago on Aug. 19.

Between the lines: Something has to give. Biden believes a strong week at NATO, a powerful performance at Thursday's press conference and private pressure from his allies will quiet the storm.

• His Democratic critics believe rising calls for him to quit, relentless pressure on Hill leaders to join them, and private pressure on Biden will ease — or force — the president out of the race.

The bottom line: Biden holds the power. If he doesn't blink, he'd be daring Democrats to wage a public fight at the convention to undo the will of voters 11 weeks before Election Day. It would tear apart the party, the convention, Biden's legacy. The president believes that in the end, his critics will cave.

• Axios' Andrew Solender and Stephen Neukam contributed reporting.

Go deeper: This week's columns.