President Trump's advisers warn the Iran war could drag on longer if the regime succeeds in strangling the Strait of Hormuz and driving oil prices beyond his tolerance, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.

• "The Iranians f*cking around with the Strait makes [Trump] more dug in," a senior Trump administration official told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump launched Operation Epic Fury to destroy Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, navy and regional proxies. But oil markets now are occupying as much of his headspace as battlefield data.

• "The president sees the briefings. He sees the numbers. And he feels good about his decision, militarily," one Trump adviser said.
• "Oil is another matter. No one is panicking, but it's a concern. He's pulling out the stops. There's plenty of oil. It's just getting it on the market that's the thing."

🔎 Zoom in: Trump has publicly downplayed both the physical danger of traversing the Strait and the war's risk to the economy — while taking steps to address both.

• Yesterday, he coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in history: 400 million barrels globally, including 172 million from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Trump is also discussing plans to supply naval escorts to tankers traversing the Strait and arranging insurance for those vessels — a crucial factor for shippers weighing the risk.

The urgency became clear yesterday when two oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf.

• Videos of a massive blaze in Iraqi waters spread rapidly on social media. Reuters published still images from Iraq's state-run ports authority that it said show one of the vessels on fire.

🧮 By the numbers: Trump prefers oil at $50 a barrel. The industry prefers a floor of around $60. Despite Trump's intervention, oil topped $100 per barrel last night and this morning, after spiking as high as $120 earlier this week.

• Iran has threatened to push prices to $200 a barrel, which would translate to roughly $5 per gallon at the pump for U.S. drivers, according to some analysts.

Another Trump adviser said: "The president is bullish on the success of the operation thus far — and feels the country will realize he was right, per usual, once it's over and the objectives are fully met."

• "He genuinely believes, as many in the White House do, that gas prices will fall substantially when this is over — and long enough before the midterms where it will not be a problem."

The bottom line: "I wouldn't say he's looking for an exit strategy," said a confidant who spoke with Trump by phone. "But he doesn't want this to last longer than it needs to."

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⛽ Go deeper: Trump faces limited gas-price options on Iran, by Axios Future of Energy author Ben Geman.

The U.S. and Israel entered the war together. They don't entirely agree on what winning looks like, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Netanyahu wants the war to lay the foundation for regime change in Iran. The U.S. sees that as an added bonus, sources said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has flagged to Western counterparts that while the two allies are aligned on military objectives, there are "different nuances" when it comes to regime change.

• Both Trump and Netanyahu had hoped the opening strike — which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 40 top security officials — would rapidly destabilize the regime.
• A dozen days later, both understand that hasn't happened. Both still hope the cracks will widen.

🔭 Zoom in: The Iranian navy is mostly destroyed. Most of Iran's missile launchers and stockpiles have been significantly degraded. Iran's military industry has taken serious damage. U.S. losses have been lower than expected — the only fighter jets lost were to friendly fire.

• But the U.S. and Israel haven't secured the 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium Iran holds at its nuclear facilities — the ultimate target for Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• And Pickaxe Mountain — the fortified underground facility near Natanz that Iran has been quietly building since 2020, potentially buried 30 stories beneath the surface — hasn't been struck.

🔮 What's next: Israeli officials tell Axios their impression is that Trump is not planning to end the war in the next two to three weeks — but are accounting for the possibility he makes an abrupt decision if he concludes his objectives have been met.

• Go deeper: Trump's Iran war whiplash clouds U.S. endgame.

AI companies are hooking users with low prices that won't last — straight out of the Amazon and Uber playbook, Axios AI+ co-author Madison Mills writes.

• Both OpenAI and Anthropic are widely expected to go public. Investors will demand earnings growth and expanding profit margins, which remain negative for AI labs.

🎨 The big picture: Every time you send a complex query, the AI lab is effectively losing money on the transaction — especially for low-cost or free accounts.

• It's an experiment Silicon Valley has run before. The so-called "millennial lifestyle subsidy" meant VC money helped underwrite cheap Uber rides and DoorDash deliveries.
• Before that, Amazon built its base with low prices, free shipping and, for years, no sales tax in most states.

Eventually, all of these companies had to charge enough to cover costs — and make a profit.

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American views of Canada and Great Britain — historically two of Washington's closest friends — have hit their lowest level since the 1980s, Axios' Avery Lotz writes from new Gallup polling.

• U.S. views of both remain overwhelmingly positive, with the largest declines among Republicans.

By the numbers: Canada's favorability among Republicans plummeted from 85% to 62%.

• For the U.K., that number fell to 64% — 18 points lower than the previous record low.

Keep reading.

A decades-long digital shadow war among the U.S., Israel and Iran is now colliding with open military conflict and spilling into civilian life, Axios' Jason Lalljee and Sam Sabin write.

• Iran-aligned hackers and self-described "hacktivist" groups have increased activity against entities in the Middle East, the U.S. and parts of Asia, according to CrowdStrike.

A group that operates on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has indicated plans to target the financial sector.

• A cyberattack allegedly linked to Iran‑aligned hackers disrupted operations yesterday at Stryker, a major U.S. medical technology company, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Share this story ... Get Axios Future of Cybersecurity.

Netflix will pay up to $600 million to acquire an AI moviemaking company founded by Ben Affleck, Bloomberg reports.

• Why it matters: It's one of the biggest ever purchases by the streaming giant — and "also one of the largest AI deals by a major Hollywood studio."

The startup, InterPositive, has developed AI-powered tools that adjust existing footage.

• "Affleck has built InterPositive as a tool for filmmakers: A director needs to shoot a movie before the software can train using the footage. Only then can it help remove stray items or adjust the background in a scene."

Keep reading (gift link).

Centuries of British political tradition will end within weeks after Parliament voted to remove hereditary aristocrats from the unelected House of Lords.

• Members of the upper chamber dropped objections to legislation passed by the House of Commons to oust dozens of dukes, earls and viscounts who inherited seats in Parliament along with their aristocratic titles. —AP

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The Washington Commanders released new renderings of the team's upcoming D.C. stadium yesterday — with extra views of its translucent dome, fan plaza and the Capitol.

• The column-heavy project is undergoing design approval at the National Capital Planning Commission.

• More renderings ... Get Axios D.C.