Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — picked yesterday as President Trump's running-mate — could potentially extend Trumpism far into the future, leaving the White House as late as 2037 if he were to win twice on his own, Mike (in Milwaukee) and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column.

• Why it matters: The freshman senator, age 39, instantly becomes the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential race, and was by far the most aggressively Trumpy of the three finalists.

Trump loved the veepstakes drama, and milked it until hours before the Republican convention opened yesterday afternoon in Milwaukee.

• Trump had told friends for several days that it was Vance, and people very close to Trump have been telling us for weeks that every sign pointed to Vance. But Trump is Trump, so no one wanted to go out on a limb and guarantee Vance was the pick.

👀 Behind the scenes: With the race's new dynamics after Saturday's assassination attempt, a secret lobbying campaign continued into yesterday morning, with Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and tech investor David Sacks all calling Trump to try to lock in Vance.

• It wasn't until midday yesterday that the other two runners-up, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), got left at the altar.

🥊 Carlson, who has a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, told us the logic for Vance "is that he doesn't secretly hate Trump, as all the rest of them do. He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That's precisely why neocon donors [who want more aid for Ukraine] fear him."

• Vance also had the most chemistry with Trump, who got to know him after Don Jr. pushed his dad to endorse Vance for Senate in 2022. Trump has genuine affection for Vance — rare for Trump, and a real change from his reasoning for picking Mike Pence in 2016.

Column continues below.

Trumpworld insiders tell us these were key factors in sealing the deal for Vance, Jim and Mike write:

1. Youth & vigor: Vance, who turns 40 in two weeks, is half Trump's age. He looks young, talks young, projects young. Trump advisers see young white, Black, and Hispanic men as rich targets for new voters. Vance, who'd be the first millennial in the White House, will be a key messenger.
2. Smart: Vance can put an intellectual wrapper around Trump's red meat. The guy evolved from Trump-hater to Trump-lover, and has offered long, detailed and historic arguments for Trump's policies. (Prime example: nearly two hours with N.Y. Times' Ross Douthat).
3. American Dream bio: James David Vance grew up in a broken Rust Belt home in Middletown, Ohio, with deep ties to Appalachia. His parents divorced when he was a toddler, and his mother struggled with substance abuse. He was raised by his grandmother, called Mamaw. (She owned 19 handguns, according to his Senate bio.) Vance enlisted in the Marines, served in Iraq, graduated from The Ohio State University on the G.I. bill, and got a Yale Law degree. He was elected to the Senate on his first try.
4. Storyteller: He wrote one of the most influential books of the past decade — the best-selling "Hillbilly Elegy," which explains the rage of working-class America against elites that propelled Trump into office. The lens: his own life. The campaign says his bio appeals not just to working-class people but also to suburban women — voters Trump is working hard to attract. "All you have to do is show people the movie," says one Vance adviser, referring to the Netflix adaptation of "Hillbilly Elegy."
5. Smooth talker: He has tirelessly defended Trump on cable news — which remains one of the surest ways to Trump's heart. Vance relishes sparring with adversarial media, and Trump has told friends Vance will offer an ideal debate contrast with Vice President Harris.
6. New money: Vance — once a venture capitalist working with Ron Klain at Steve Case's Revolution investment fund — has relationships that'll open new GOP fundraising frontiers with Silicon Valley and crypto entrepreneurs.

🔮 What's next: We're told the Trump campaign plans to park Vance in Pennsylvania for the next four months, with side trips to Michigan and Wisconsin — using his Rust Belt appeal to try to deny President Biden those Blue Wall states, which he absolutely must win.

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MILWAUKEE — Sen. J.D. Vance's selection as Donald Trump's running mate electrified the crowd inside the GOP convention hall, where delegates hailed his nomination as a tribute to the "America First" movement, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

Winners

1. Populism: If there was any remaining doubt, the Republican Party of 2012 — the year Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan accepted the nomination — is dead and gone.

2. Don Jr.: A close friend of Vance who personally lobbied for his nomination, Trump Jr. cemented his status this week as a kingmaker for the next generation of MAGA leaders.

3. Forgiveness: Vance, a former "Never Trumper," attacked his new running mate in astonishingly personal terms during the 2016 campaign — even suggesting Trump could be "America's Hitler" in a private message.

✂️ Bonus winner: Beards. Vance would be the first vice president with facial hair since the mustachioed Charles Curtis, who served under President Herbert Hoover.

Losers

1. Russia hawks and Europe: Vance is perhaps the Republican Party's most vocal critic of U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that the war isn't winnable and that the U.S. should focus on defending Taiwan against China. He has called on Ukraine to cede territory to achieve peace with Russia.

2. Democrats' détente: Vance's selection swiftly ended the pause in negative campaigning that began after the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday. Dems called the choice "despicable" and "alarming."

3. GOP donor class: Rumors of the Ohio senator's selection set off panic among traditional Republican donors, who fear his policies on trade, labor and antitrust could damage big business. Rupert Murdoch and his outlets lobbied hard for Trump to pick "anyone but J.D.," according to NOTUS.

😞 Bonus loser: Generation X. Vance, the first millennial on a major party ticket, means the political establishment skipped straight over the generation born between 1965 and 1980.

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The Democratic National Committee is quietly steaming ahead with plans to technically nominate President Biden weeks before the party's convention next month, Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Thompson have learned.

• Why it matters: It's the latest effort by Biden's team to stamp out the Democratic rebellion that's been pushing for the president to step aside.

If the working plan for a "virtual roll call" holds, Biden just has to outlast his party's critics for about two more weeks.

• The window for voting is likely to open July 29 and conclude by Aug. 5, according to people familiar with the matter.

👂 What we're hearing: Some delegates are concerned the DNC is trying to jam them by moving up the voting deadline.

• "Behind the scenes, people at the Biden campaign and DNC are working to put in the fix," Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, a Biden delegate from Maryland, wrote to fellow state delegates last week in an email obtained by Axios.

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Teamsters president Sean O'Brien delivered a fiery address to close out the first night of the Republican National Convention, castigating big businesses and corporate lobby groups for "waging a war against American workers," Axios' Emily Peck and Sophia Cai write.

• Why it matters: You would be forgiven for mistaking the speech with an address at a Democratic convention or in a union hall.

The big picture: O'Brien stood out among the partisan lineup because he didn't endorse former President Trump, yet he got the most speaking time of the evening.

• His prominence at the convention highlights how important the labor vote is in pivotal swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
• The speech is the clearest sign of a potential realignment in political loyalties that has Democrats nervous.

👓 Between the lines: A Teamsters president had never spoken at an RNC.

• O'Brien called for bipartisan action on labor reform — a stunning move at a political convention for a party traditionally opposed to unions. He even called out the GOP for its opposition to labor.

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Latino Republicans say they're much more enthusiastic and likely to vote this year than Latino Democrats, Margaret Talev writes from a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

• Why it matters: Latino voters overall still align more closely with Democrats on character and policy issues. But if Latino Republicans turn out with more intensity, it could be decisive.

The findings suggest an opportunity for former President Trump — and newly announced running mate J.D. Vance — to court more support by re-branding the GOP around upward mobility for Latinos.

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Elon Musk plans to commit about $45 million a month to a new pro-Trump super PAC formed by a group of close allies, The Wall Street Journal reports.

• The group includes Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins.

The intrigue: A new strain of GOP financiers linked to Silicon Valley — beginning with J.D. Vance's 2022 Senate patron Peter Thiel, and now continuing with Musk and David Sacks — are poised to gain influence in the Republican Party, Axios' Zachary Basu notes.

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Smart branding has turned the once-sleepy stretch of sandy white beaches on the Florida panhandle known as 30A into the Hamptons of the South, an exclusive, high-end vacation destination dotted with celebrity homes.

• Why it matters: The 26-mile string of Florida borrows its name from the scenic highway that winds through 16 beachfront neighborhoods, Axios New Orleans' Chelsea Brasted writes.

Over the past two decades, it's transformed from a place where restaurants didn't even stay open year-round to — in its most recent years — a magnet for social media influencers, athletes and celebrities.

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