J.D. Vance: Winners and losers from Trump's VP pick

Winners

1. Populism: If there was any remaining doubt, the Republican Party of 2012 — the year Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan accepted the nomination — is dead and gone.

• Vance is an intellectual leader of the "New Right," marrying economic populism — think regulating big banks and using tariffs to boost domestic industries — with nationalism and conservative social policy.

2. Donald Trump Jr.: A close friend to Vance who personally lobbied for his nomination, Trump Jr. cemented his status this week as a kingmaker for the next generation of MAGA leaders.

• The former president's eldest son will speak just before Vance at the convention Wednesday night.

3. Forgiveness: Vance, a former "Never Trumper," attacked his new running mate in astonishingly personal terms during the 2016 campaign — even suggesting Trump could be "America's Hitler" in a private message.

• "I can't stomach Trump," Vance, known at the time as the best-selling author of "Hillbilly Elegy," told NPR in 2016. "I think that he's noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place."

Bonus winner: Beards. Vance would be the first vice president with facial hair since the mustachioed Charles Curtis, who served under President Herbert Hoover until 1933.

• Asked about reports that Vance's beard could be a deal-breaker, Trump told Fox News last week: "He looks good. Looks like a young Abraham Lincoln."

Losers

1. Russia hawks and Europe: Vance is perhaps the Republican Party's most vocal critic of U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that the war isn't winnable and that the U.S. should focus on defending Taiwan against China.

• Vance has called on Ukraine to cede territory to achieve peace with Russia, and told Steve Bannon in 2022: "I got to be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."

2. Democrats' détente: Vance's selection swiftly ended the pause in negative campaigning that began after the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday, as Democrats called the choice "despicable" and "alarming."

• President Biden's campaign highlighted Vance's anti-abortion views and attacked him for saying he would have rejected the certification of the 2020 election if he had been vice president on Jan. 6, 2021.

• The campaign also sought to tie Vance to the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, which he has echoed in calling for "every civil servant in the administrative state" to be fired and replaced with loyalists.

3. The GOP's donor class: Rumors of the Ohio senator's selection set off panic among traditional Republican donors, who fear his policies on trade, labor and antitrust could damage big business.

• Media magnate Rupert Murdoch and his outlets lobbied hard for Trump to pick "anyone but J.D.," according to NOTUS, drawing fire from anti-establishment conservatives such as Tucker Carlson.
• A new strain of GOP financiers linked to Silicon Valley — beginning with Vance's 2022 Senate patron Peter Thiel, and now continuing with Elon Musk and David Sacks — are poised to gain greater influence.

Bonus loser: Generation X. Vance, the first millennial on a major party ticket, could inherit the GOP and the White House from Trump, injecting youth into a political system dominated by the gerontocracy.

The bottom line: Trump believes Vance's Rust Belt background could help him win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But the decision to put forward an unabashed MAGA ticket suggests electoral considerations weren't the former president's top priority.