In a parallel universe, the GOP's years-long efforts to expose alleged corruption by the Biden family would be peaking at the ideal moment, Axios' Zachary Basu writes:

• With exactly two months to Election Day, Hunter Biden's federal tax trial begins today in California. And in D.C., House Republicans just issued a 291-page report accusing President Biden of impeachable conduct.

Why it matters: Instead, with Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee, former President Trump's crusade against "Crooked Joe" is collapsing into political irrelevance.

• It's one of many reasons Trump keeps wishing he were still running against Biden, whose family's foreign business dealings have been campaign fodder since 2019.
• Republicans may find success tying Harris to Biden's record on inflation, the border and other policy issues. But on family baggage, Biden's exit has deprived Trump of one of his favorite cudgels.

👓 Zoom in: Jury selection begins today in L.A. for Hunter Biden's second criminal trial of the year.

• The president's son, accused of evading taxes for years while spending millions on a lavish, drug-fueled lifestyle, was convicted in June on federal gun charges in Delaware.
• He faces up to 25 years in prison for that conviction, and up to 17 if he's found guilty of the nine tax charges in California. President Biden has ruled out pardoning his 54-year-old son.

Between the lines: On a personal level, the trial is likely to take an emotional toll on the 81-year-old president, especially with prosecutors expected to revisit the darkest moments of Hunter Biden's life.

• On a political level, Harris' ascendance has turned the Biden scrutiny into a sideshow that isn't likely to affect the campaign.

🔭 Zoom out: The July ticket switch didn't stop House Republicans from releasing a report last month — on the first day of the Democratic National Convention — accusing the president of a conspiracy to "enrich his family" through influence peddling.

• The report doesn't offer direct proof that Joe Biden engaged in any corrupt quid pro quo on behalf of his family. But it suggests he abused his power even if his family members only sold the "illusion" of influence.

The report landed with a thud: Peter Van Buren of The American Conservative called it a "hollow vindication," writing that "the drive to impeach a lame-duck president seems to have missed its moment."

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Former President Trump is scaling back his campaigning in three "reach" states he was targeting just six weeks ago — a sign of how Vice President Harris' rise has changed the race, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.

• Why it matters: Trump's campaign is placing less emphasis on New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia.

Instead, it's pouring resources into the Blue Wall states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — crucial to both sides' chances of victory.

• Trump is refocusing on North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada — states where he had significant polling leads before Harris made them competitive.

🗺️ State of play: In New Hampshire, Trump's campaign appears to be drawing down its operations.

• A top volunteer emailed fellow volunteers to say the campaign "has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state" and that staff should redirect efforts to Pennsylvania.
• In Minnesota, a state Trump mentioned in his Truth Social post announcing Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, Democrats and Republicans acknowledge the tides have shifted.
• In Virginia, Trump's team appears to have stopped putting out memos that cite internal polls while claiming the state is flippable. He hasn't held a rally there in six weeks.

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One of the main questions raised during a Situation Room meeting President Biden and Vice President Harris held with their national security team on Monday was whether there is any ceasefire and hostage deal that Hamas would ever agree to, U.S. officials told Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: Biden and his top advisers were shocked after Hamas killed six hostages in Gaza, including U.S. citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin, and have started to rethink the way forward in the negotiations over the deal.

At the same time, new Hamas demands to increase the number of Palestinian prisoners released raised even more concerns among U.S. negotiators about whether an agreement is possible, U.S. officials said.

• "We all feel the urgency but what happened last weekend changed the character of the discussion. But we do want to try and get something together," a U.S. official said.

Behind the scenes: Officials said one of the main arguments made in the meeting was that the U.S. shouldn't push for a proposal that gives Hamas additional concessions after Hamas murdered the hostages.

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An unusual mix of forces is pushing oil prices sharply down as the U.S. election enters its final weeks, Axios' Ben Geman writes.

• Why it matters: Cheaper oil is likely to keep gasoline prices moving south too, a potential lift for Vice President Harris, who faces political challenges around inflation.

The intrigue: Analysts see several unrelated reasons for the recent declines.

• Weak Chinese economic data keeps arriving.
• Reports of a deal among rival Libyan factions to restore production.
• The end of the U.S. summer driving season.

🔮 What's next: "As long as we don't see a major hurricane head into the Gulf," Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, said in a research note, "the national average could fall below $3 [per gallon] in the next two months."

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Vice President Harris chose a rather obscure part of the federal tax code — the top rate for capital gains — to make her first big move toward the center of the 2024 political conversation, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

• Why it matters: Harris' call for Americans making over $1 million to pay a 28% capital gains tax marked a symbolic departure from President Biden, who prefers a higher 39.6% rate.

🖼️ The big picture: She's spent the first six weeks of her presidential campaign embracing Biden's positions as her own on tax policy and some other areas.

• But she had a clear message for the business community yesterday: "Comrade Kamala" she isn't, even for Americans making more than $1 million a year — a group Biden once described as the top "three-tenths of 1% of all Americans."
• Harris unveiled her new tax policy at an event in the "Live Free or Die" state of New Hampshire, known for its aversion to taxes.

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North Carolina tomorrow will become the first state to mail out 2024 ballots, Axios' Ivana Saric writes.

• Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Virginia all begin in-person early voting this month (mapped above).

Why it matters: Election Day is two months away. But tens of millions of voters won't wait that long — we really have Election Autumn.

👀 What we're watching: RFK Jr. is trying to halt the absentee process in North Carolina so he can get off the ballot.

• Barring a last-minute intervention from the judge in a hearing scheduled for today, the ballots will go out with Kennedy's name on them.

Go deeper: Key election dates.

The rules for next Tuesday's presidential debate are set after the Harris campaign agreed to terms proposed by ABC News yesterday, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes:

• The microphone will only be on for the candidate whose turn it is to speak — a blow for Harris, whose campaign wanted live mics for both candidates throughout the broadcast.
• The debate will run for 90 minutes with two commercial breaks.
• The candidates are not allowed to bring pre-written notes to the stage.

⚡ P.S. Former Rep. Liz Cheney said yesterday that she'll vote for Vice President Harris, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.

• "Because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris."

The NFL season starts tonight with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens, as the Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team to three-peat as Super Bowl champs.

• Why it matters: This is the biggest NFL Kickoff weekend ever — a football holiday with games today, tomorrow, Sunday and Monday.
• Keep reading.

🧀 🇧🇷 🦅 Friday night's game is Packers-Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil — the NFL's debut in South America, widening the league's footprint on the road to becoming a global sports property.

• How to watch.

This is the first time since 1970 that the NFL has had a Friday night game in its opening week schedule.

• Full weekend schedule ... Season guide: Big games and rule changes.