Trump campaign shifts as its path to victory narrows
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Trump speaks at his campaign headquarters in Michigan last month. Photo: Emily Elconin/Getty Images
Former President Trump is scaling back his campaigning in three states he was targeting just six weeks ago, a sign of how Kamala Harris' rise in the polls has shifted the dynamics of the presidential race.
Why it matters: Trump's campaign is placing less emphasis on New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia. Instead, it's pouring resources into the "Blue Wall" states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that are crucial to both sides' chances of victory.
- Trump's also refocusing on other states — North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada — where he had significant polling leads before Harris made them competitive.
It's a stark contrast from late July, when Trump came rolling out of the Republican convention in Milwaukee with what looked like a glide path to winning back the White House.
- Trump held rallies in Minnesota, Virginia and even deep-blue New Jersey as his campaign wrote memos about how Minnesota and Virginia were "clearly in play" and "prime opportunities to flip."
- Then President Biden dropped out of the race, and Harris' emergence as the presumed Democratic nominee put Trump on defense.
Zoom in: In New Hampshire, Trump's campaign appears to be drawing down its operations.
- A top volunteer emailed fellow volunteers to say the campaign "has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state" and that staff should redirect campaign efforts in Pennsylvania.
- The campaign denies the volunteer's assertion and says its New Hampshire headquarters in Manchester remains open and operational.
In Minnesota, a state Trump mentioned in his Truth Social post announcing Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, Democrats and Republicans acknowledge the tides have shifted.
- Shortly after the Republican convention, Trump and Vance rallied in St. Cloud, Minn. About the same time, Trump's campaign bullishly said it would open eight offices in the state and build out its staff.
- But most of the roughly dozen offices it lists in the state opened in May or June — before the change in the Democratic ticket, which includes Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Harris' running mate.
- The campaign has announced the hiring of just two full-time staffers in Minnesota: a state director and a senior adviser, though a state party spokesperson told Axios the GOP has at least a 14 full-time staffers dedicated to Trump's election.
- Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann acknowledged that "the [state] party and Trump campaign have been working jointly with our local organizations to get those [offices] staffed up," but said the campaign remains invested in the state and is happy with "strong" metrics on voter contacts and volunteer signups.
In Virginia, Trump and Vance both held rallies in the state this summer, before Harris' emergence.
- Trump was in Chesapeake, Virginia, on June 28, the day after his debate with Biden, whose shaky performance ignited calls for him to step aside.
- Vance's first solo campaign appearance as Trump's vice presidential nominee was in Radford, Virginia, on July 22, just after the GOP convention.
Trump's campaign continues to talk up its chances in Virginia, where polls suggest Harris has turned Trump's lead into a small but significant advantage for her.
- "I truly believe we're going to win the state," Trump's son Eric said recently.
- But in the past six weeks Trump hasn't held a rally in Virginia, and his campaign appears to have stopped putting out memos that cite internal polls while claiming the state is flippable.
Between the lines: Trump's campaign is now spending big on advertising in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and in states where it previously appeared it wouldn't have use many resources to win.
- In North Carolina, for example, the campaign and MAGA Inc., a supporting super PAC, have spent more than $16 million on ads — a sign they're taking Harris' prospects there seriously.
What they're saying: "Team Trump continues to build out the most robust and modern ground game ever, " Rachel Reisner, Trump's battleground states director, told Axios.
- "Our team is only expanding — we have new staff, offices and volunteers weekly — with more enthusiasm, energy, and support from people and states Democrats take for granted."
