President Trump feels and acts invincible: He acts on whims, however he pleases, precedent and restraints be damned, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• But Trump's vincibility is being exposed. Courts restrain him more. GOP candidates criticize him more. The public turns on him more.

Why it matters: Time, power and support wane for all lame-duck presidents. But it's new for Trump and will only grow more true and more torturous, assuming Democrats win Capitol power in the midterms, 43 days from now.

This is what the beginning of the end looks like, which is what scares Trump advisers and confidants most. Trump often retreats to his worst impulses when he feels most powerless.

• That helps explain Trump's decision to ban three news organizations from the White House for the sin of reporting what he doesn't like.
• Trump lashed out at the outlets (which vow court challenges) after a weeklong string of losses: The Fed raised interest rates against his will ... The Supreme Court rejected his plan to restrict mail-in ballots ... A federal judge blocked him from putting his name on the Kennedy Center ... A Florida Republican, Rep. María Elvira Salazar, bought a campaign ad saying ICE has gone too far and Hispanic voters "feel betrayed" ... A gallon of gas was up $1.24 from a year ago ... Diesel set a record.

🧠 How Trump's brain works: The skeleton key for unlocking Trump's mind is understanding that he thinks constantly about exercising power, and believes power is a zero-sum game — a winner and a loser.

• Exercising power is the explanation for banning the media, for unpopular tariffs, for bombing Iran, for demolishing the East Wing, for obsessing about a new ballroom and gilding D.C.

Trump announced at 7:30 a.m. yesterday that he wants his planned golden arch to have G.I. Joe-style capabilities "to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage." There's a method to it all: If the Arc de Trump is for national security, the courts and Congress will have a tougher time reining in the executive.

• Later yesterday morning, the president of the United States decided to engagement-farm on Truth Social by boosting a poll asking whether people think AI should be rebranded as either "Superior Intelligence" or "Extreme Intelligence." (You know he's gonna pick "superior," which of course will do nothing to calm Americans creeped out by the technology.)

Expect more of this. Trump will act out to exert what control he can because he's lost the political argument — if not the military one — as his Iran war constantly puts the lie to his claims, raises fuel costs and, in tandem with his unpopular tariffs, saddles voters with inflation.

• The Fed's decision to hike interest rates can be read as a vote of no confidence in the president's economic agenda. The decision could raise mortgage rates, already at a 19-month high.

👀 Behind the scenes: Trump advisers and confidants describe him as generally in a good mood. But some privately confess he can get too cranky too quickly sometimes and that he's showing his 80 years on Earth.

• Senior administration officials, steeled by seasoned vets accustomed to the wild ride on the Trump crazy train, are officially acting as if it's just another day on the tracks.
• To them, Trump should ban more news organizations that agitate him; the Fed rate hikes aren't his fault (it's somehow Joe Biden's); the president will exert power as he sees fit; and his ballroom obsession is charming.
• "No Panicans Allowed," one official, using the Trumpworld version of Democrats' "bedwetters," told Axios' Marc Caputo.

Between the lines: House Dems can practically taste the majority, and they're showing signs of just how much they'll investigate Trump's administration and family.

• As is customary, staff is leaving as Trump approaches his final midterm. It's unclear who'll come after and how experienced they'll be.
• You can bank on this: Trump will issue blanket pardons to those who stay and those he perceives as loyal.

⚖️ Podcaster Katie Miller, a Trump 1.0 vet and wife of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, wrote Saturday on X in response to a post about looming pardons: "After the first Trump administration, my family spent money we did not have on lawyers because of multiple partisan Democrat led investigations into President Trump."

• "I watched as many of my friends also had no idea how to pay expensive legal bills because they simply served their country," she added. "You can't convince me Democrats won't do this again."

As the first president who was impeached twice, Trump began war-gaming last year for an impeachment fight in 2027-28. As long as the GOP maintains Senate control or as long as there isn't the threat of removal by a two-thirds Senate vote after an impeachment, Trump is signaling he's ready for battle.

• "The president can count to 67," a longtime adviser told Caputo. "And he has bigger balls than anyone in D.C."

The bottom line: Yes, Trump commands loyalty or at least blind silence from most elected Republicans. They fear him. But with each passing day, Democrats, the courts, critics — even some congressional Republicans — feel more capable of restraining Trump and are starting to think about what comes after him.

• Share this column ... Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

President Trump's announcement this weekend that he's forming an "AI Force," modeled on the Space Force he launched in his first term, caught advisers by surprise, Axios' Maria Curi reports.

• Officials and executives inside and outside the administration are now jockeying to be Trump's AI czar, which he said he'll name soon. The czar will likely be a seasoned surrogate with Silicon Valley ties who can spearhead an AI rebranding effort, sources tell us.

🦾 Among the names to watch:

• Scott Kupor, director of the Office of Personnel Management. Kupor has a degree in public policy and was Andreessen Horowitz's first employee.
• Sriram Krishnan, former senior White House AI policy adviser. Krishnan also worked at a16z and carried the torch for former AI czar David Sacks inside the White House after he left.
• Chamath Palihapitiya, Social Capital founder, CEO of 8090 and co-host of the All-In Podcast with Sacks and others.
• Sean Cairncross, White House national cyber director. Cairncross played a role in the administration's handling of the release of Anthropic's Mythos.
• Emil Michael, Pentagon CTO and under secretary for research and engineering. If the AI Force is housed in the Pentagon, Michael, who's also a former Uber executive, would be an easy fit.

Keep reading.

Many of those who know Kamala Harris best think she ultimately won't run for the White House in 2028.

• Why it matters: What the former vice president decides to do is one of the biggest X factors in the next presidential contest. Early polls suggest Harris is the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee, and if she opted out, it would scramble the primary, Axios' Holly Otterbein writes.

📝 We surveyed eight former Harris aides and advisers, including those who worked for her at a senior level, to get their most up-to-date read. Only one thought Harris probably will run. Two said it's a coin flip, and five said she likely won't. Here's why:

1. She's doing "the bare minimum" to stay in the conversation, as one ex-aide put it. Former staffers argue that if she were gung-ho about running she'd be hiring more, traveling more and inserting herself into policy debates more.
2. She's a rational actor. Former aides say Harris is well aware of the hurdles that would await her if she ran again.
3. The money might not be there. Many high-dollar donors are still furious about Harris' loss and don't want her to run again.
4. She isn't an egomaniac. Multiple people who worked for Harris say she lacks the "sociopathic" belief — their words, not ours — that it's she and she alone who should be president.
5. Some tea leaves suggest she's lukewarm on running. Harris effectively gave up control of her @KamalaHQ social media account, and bought an $8 million house in Malibu with her husband.

Read on ... Alex Thompson contributed reporting.

Traffic to news sites is plummeting in the U.S. as tech giants steer people away from search and toward AI, Axios' Kerry Flynn and Sara Fischer report in an Axios Media Trends Executive briefing.

• By the numbers: U.S. web traffic to roughly 100 of the top news sites fell to 47.6 million visits in July — down from peaks above 70 million in 2024, according to Similarweb data.
• Chatbot referrals have surged from 10,000 in July 2023 to more than 160,000 this July, but that remains a fraction of the traffic traditional search provides.

🔎 The intrigue: 2024 was the last big traffic year before the digital tides started turning on publishers.

• That was when Google introduced AI overviews within its search results and Meta rolled out a heavily expanded version of its Meta AI assistant.

Share this chart ... Subscribe to Axios Media Trends Executive.

DraftKings, FanDuel and a few smaller sportsbooks had largely cornered the sports gambling industry until prediction markets suddenly began threatening their turf.

• The fresh competition has triggered an explosion of shock marketing and promotions in the sports betting space, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.

🎲 State of play: Traditional sportsbooks had about 76% of legal U.S. sports wagering in 2023, but that share fell to 64% in the first half of 2026, according to research by digital market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Prediction markets went from 1% to 16% during that period.

• Ad spending by prediction markets and the major sportsbooks rose 21% in the first seven months of 2026, compared to the same period a year earlier, according to Nielsen research.

The latest: Kalshi, Polymarket and upstarts like Novig have been signing celebrity sponsors and airing splashy ads this football season in a stark reflection of the intensifying competition for wagers.

• Keep reading.

President Trump will visit New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani at his official residence, Gracie Mansion, this afternoon.

• They'll "focus on issues affecting New York City and New Yorkers," a spokesperson for the mayor's office told the N.Y. Times.

Trump will be in Manhattan for the UN General Assembly, where he'll speak tomorrow. Tonight, he'll headline two Republican donor events — an RNC reception and a MAGA Inc. dinner.

• The president will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the UNGA sidelines. The meeting comes as the White House works to broker an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to de-escalate and resume talks, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

The New Yorker's new cover (above) is cartoonist and illustrator Barry Blitt's take on the rising fears about AI and the threat it could pose to humanity. He writes:

"As a dedicated hypochondriac, I've had a number of pretty good conversations with Google's Gemini chatbot, about all manner of ailments. But I understand that AI may not always be looking out for my well-being."

The Roman Empire's roads formed the backbone of the world's first continental-scale transportation system.

• Now, researchers have mapped the network — 190,000 miles of routes crisscrossing Europe, the Middle East and North Africa — in unprecedented detail. Many modern highways trace these ancient roads.

🕌 The study showed the old adage "all roads lead to Rome" was not exactly true.

• The empire's later imperial capital, Constantinople — now Istanbul — was a better fit for that maxim.

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