Many ex-aides to Harris betting against a 2028 run

Zoom in: Over the past year, a surprisingly large number of former aides, surrogates and donors to Harris have told Axios they believe she won't launch another campaign.

• They argue that the moves she's making — hitting the trail for midterm candidates, going on the podcast circuit, and writing a book — might make her look like a contender-in-waiting, but actually amount to her simply trying to maintain influence.
• Harris has said publicly and privately she hasn't made up her mind yet, and some of her former aides concede they could be wrong — or could even be "wishcasting" because they don't want her to pursue another bid.

This week, we surveyed eight former Harris aides and advisers, including those who worked for her at a senior level, to get their most up-to-date read. Only one thought Harris probably will run. Two said it's a coin-flip, and five said she likely won't. Here's why:

1. She's doing "the bare minimum" to stay in the 2028 conversation, as one past aide put it. Harris' former staffers argue that if she were gung-ho about running she'd be hiring more, traveling more, and inserting herself into policy debates more often.
2. She's a rational actor. Former aides say Harris is well aware of the hurdles that would await her if she ran again. "She's a realist and an astute political observer, and she knows her candidacy could get bogged down in a 2024 rearview mirror," said a second former aide.
3. The money might not be there. Many high-dollar donors are still furious about Harris' loss and don't want her to run again. Top Democratic donor Reid Hoffman said last week that she'd face "a very challenging path" in 2028. Some of her former financial backers are signaling support for other potential candidates, such as Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
4. She isn't an egomaniac. Sure, this is self-serving. But multiple people who worked for Harris say she lacks the "sociopathic" belief — their words, not ours — that it's she and she alone who should be president.
5. Some tea leaves suggest she's lukewarm on running. Harris effectively gave up control of her @KamalaHQ social media account, and bought an $8 million house in Malibu with her husband. Also, her top aide Kirsten Allen left her team recently, though Harris still speaks with her.

What they're saying: A former Harris aide connected to Axios by her current team put the odds of another run at "50-50," saying the former VP "is a very methodical decision-maker" who will weigh "the moment that we're in."

• This former aide pushed back on the notion that money could be a problem, pointing to Harris' massive email fundraising list and arguing that high-dollar donors won't determine the next nominee. They also said her team doesn't need to be bigger when the focus is on the midterms.
• "There will be a lot of people who will feel a lot of urgency to announce as soon as possible," the former aide said. "I think the vice president doesn't necessarily have to be on that timeline."

The lone former Harris staffer who told us they expect her to run gave it a "55% chance," noting that Harris has been ramping up her calls to Democratic officials and activists.

• "I think there's a lot of wishcasting that maybe Kamala will come to her senses and not do it," this person said.
• Harris definitely is keeping the door open to another bid, including by gearing up to campaign this fall for battleground candidates such as Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Nevada gubernatorial hopeful Aaron Ford.
• But many former aides who think Harris would be a good president say they don't want her to run again because they seriously doubt she could win, given her record. One way to view their arguments: They're trying to persuade her to stay out of the race.

David Plouffe, Harris' 2024 senior adviser, was blunt about the headwinds she would face in a third national campaign, even as he acknowledged she'd begin in an enviable position.

• "Her strongest day will be her first day in the campaign," Plouffe told "Pod Save America," predicting Harris' support likely would erode as the race developed.

The bottom line: People who talk to Harris say she's genuinely undecided about 2028, but political insiders will keep scrutinizing her every move for signs of what she'll do next.

• During a recent podcast interview, she told former soccer star Megan Rapinoe: "I don't know how to live and not serve."

Axios' Alex Thompson contributed to this report.