Less than six months into President Trump's second term, several possible GOP contenders for president in 2028 already are racing to build their national profiles, travel to early primary states and establish relationships with major donors, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• Why it matters: Trump, who has dominated GOP politics for a decade, can't legally run again. Several ambitious Republicans are signaling they see an opening to offer themselves to primary voters as the future of the party.

🖼️ The big picture: Trump has mentioned Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible successors, and they're widely seen as the early favorites for the 2028 nomination.

• Vance has been using his perch as finance chair of the Republican National Committee to make inroads with donors, and has been crisscrossing the country raising money for the party.
• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who has been raising her profile with a series of photo ops with ICE agents during immigration raids, is also viewed as a possible 2028 contender.

🔬 Zoom in: Though it's too early for anyone to say they're running, several GOP officeholders are positioning themselves to do just that.

• Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin will visit Iowa later this month for an event with the state's GOP chair. Next month, Youngkin will headline a fundraising dinner for the GOP in South Carolina.
• Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is staking out turf as a deficit hawk and forcefully opposed Trump's big tax and spending bill. The senator, who waged an unsuccessful bid in 2016, recently went to Iowa and South Carolina and plans to go to New Hampshire this fall.
• Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp addressed the Ronald Reagan Institute, a frequent stop for presidential hopefuls, in June. He has used his time as Republican Governors Association chair to introduce himself to major donors.
• Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who was White House press secretary during Trump's first term, is headed to Iowa this month to appear at an event hosted by the Family Leader, a group overseen by prominent evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats.
• South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, is using his National Republican Senatorial Committee chairmanship to travel and meet donors.

🥊 Reality check: Testing the waters this early has risks. Trump will play a huge role in determining the party's next nominee, and could punish would-be candidates he sees as putting themselves ahead of him.

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President Trump's Justice Department and FBI have concluded that convicted sex offender and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein didn't blackmail powerful figures or maintain a "client list," and did die by suicide, according to a memo detailing the findings obtained by Axios' Alex Isenstadt.

• The administration plans to release a video indicating no one entered the area of the Manhattan prison where Epstein was held the night he died in 2019.
• The video supports a medical examiner's finding that he killed himself and wasn't murdered, according to the two-page memo.

Why it matters: The findings represent the first time Trump's administration has officially contradicted conspiracy theories about Epstein's activities and his death — theories that had been pushed by the FBI's top two officials before Trump appointed them to the bureau.

As social media influencers and activists, Kash Patel (now the FBI's director) and Dan Bongino (now deputy director) were among those in MAGA world who questioned the official version of how Epstein died.

• Patel and Bongino have since backtracked and said Epstein died by suicide. But it has become an article of faith online, especially on the right, that Epstein's crimes also implicated government officials, celebrities and business leaders — and that someone killed him to conceal them.
• The memo says no one else involved in the Epstein case will be charged. (Epstein's associate Ghislaine Maxwell is serving a 20-year sentence for child sex trafficking and related offenses.)

🔎 Zoom in: According to the memo, investigators closely examined footage of Epstein's Manhattan prison cell between 10:40 p.m. on Aug. 9, 2019, when Epstein was locked in his cell, and around 6:30 a.m. the next day, when he was found unresponsive.

• Investigators found "no incriminating 'client list'" of Epstein's, "no credible evidence ... that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals," and no "evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties," the memo adds.

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The White House promised a summer of tariff clarity. Now it looks like it might be another season of confusion, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

• Why it matters: The rules of global trade in the Trump era are just as hazy now as they were in early April, when the White House suggested "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.

The big picture: The fear among business leaders is that the trade wars started when Trump took office don't have a firm end date — a worry that grows with each shifting deadline.

• "Whatever deals there are going to be, let's just ink it and move on," Sue Spence, the chair of the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing business survey committee, tells Axios.
• "But even if that happens, there is such a disbelief it will stick," says Spence, who surveys manufacturers each month to gauge the industry's health.

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At least 82 people — including 28 children, many from summer camps — were killed during the catastrophic Fourth of July flooding in Central Texas, Axios' Asher Price, Madalyn Mendoza and Avery Lotz write.

• Ten girls and a counselor from Camp Mystic, an all-girls' Christian summer camp, are still missing. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said 41 people were unaccounted for across the state, and more could be missing.

The bulk of the devastation was in Kerr County, where severe storms caused flash flooding along the Guadalupe River about 65 miles northwest of San Antonio.

• More heavy rain is expected into tomorrow.

President Trump signed a major disaster declaration for the county yesterday and said federal officials were coordinating with state and local authorities.

• He told reporters he plans to visit the disaster area, likely on Friday: "We wanted to leave a little time. I would have done it today, but we'd just be in their way."

Go deeper: How the deadly Fourth of July floods unfolded, by Axios' Madalyn Mendoza and Astrid Galván.

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At town halls in their districts and in one-on-one meetings with constituents and activists, Democratic members of Congress are facing a growing thrum of demands to break the rules, fight dirty — and not be afraid to get hurt, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• "This idea that we're going to save every norm and that we're not going to play [Republicans'] game ... I don't think that's resonating with voters anymore," one House Democrat told us.

Why it matters: House Democrats told Axios they see growing anger in their base that has, in some cases, morphed into a disregard for American institutions, political traditions and even the rule of law.

🔭 Zoom in: For months, Democratic lawmakers have fumed that the base's demands to "fight harder" ignore the lack of legislative and investigative power afforded to the minority party in Congress.

• Liberal voters have angrily accosted Democrats at town halls for, in their view, not doing enough to counter President Trump's agenda.

"Some of them have suggested ... what we really need to do is be willing to get shot" when visiting ICE facilities or federal agencies, a House Democrat told Axios.

• Another House Democrat said constituents have said "civility isn't working" and to prepare for "violence ... to fight to protect our democracy."

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President Trump wants to reach an agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their meeting today on terms for ending the war in Gaza, two U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: Trump is trying to seize the momentum from the Israel–Iran ceasefire to secure a breakthrough in Gaza this week. After four months of failed talks, there has been fresh momentum in recent days towards a ceasefire deal.

The deal on the table is a 60-day truce involving the release of 10 live Israeli hostages and 18 deceased hostages.

• Trump hopes it will be a step toward a bigger peace agreement, though Netanyahu has thus far been unwilling to sign any deal to end the war.

Friction point: If a temporary ceasefire is reached, the post-war situation in Gaza will become the central topic in negotiations during the 60-day truce.

• The U.S. side wants to reach an understanding with the Israelis about who will govern Gaza without Hamas, and what security guarantees will prevent the group's return.

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Responding to Elon Musk's weekend announcement that he has formed a new party, the America Party, President Trump told reporters as he left New Jersey last evening that third parties "have never worked. So he can have fun with it, but I think it's ridiculous."

• Shortly thereafter, in a 300+-word post on his social-media platform, Truth Social, Trump added: "I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely 'off the rails,' essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks. He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States - The System seems not designed for them. The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS."

Musk shot back on X, his social platform: "What's Truth Social?"

Pope Leo XIV arrived in the papal summer retreat of Castel Gandolfo yesterday to start a six-week vacation, giving the hilltop town back its most illustrious resident after Pope Francis stayed away during his 12-year pontificate.

• The 69-year-old Chicago native is resuming the papal tradition of leaving the Vatican for the hot summer months in favor of the relatively cooler climes of Castel Gandolfo, overlooking Lake Alban in the hills south of Rome.

The area has been a favorite getaway for Roman rulers since the time of Emperor Domitian in the first century.

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