President Trump has a new rule for America's partners: Cross him in one theater, and the consequences will follow you into the next, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• Why it matters: Trump has spent his second term battering U.S. allies, humiliating their leaders, and using decades-old security relationships to settle personal and political scores.

The Iran war has only deepened those impulses: Trump is growing angrier at allies that stayed out of the conflict — and punishing them as he struggles to end it.

🔎 Zoom in: South Korea — recently hailed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as a "model ally" — is the latest and most surprising casualty in Trump's retribution campaign.

• On Sunday, Trump ordered the Pentagon to "substantially reduce" an annual military exercise, citing the cost and his "very good relationship" with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
• Trump noted in his Truth Social announcement that he "recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'"

For years, Europe has borne the brunt of Trump's assault on American alliances. As the Iran war has widened those transatlantic fractures, his pressure campaign has become more systematic.

• Bloomberg reports the Pentagon sent NATO allies a survey probing their loyalty to Trump's foreign policy as it weighs where to keep — or withdraw — U.S. troops.

Between the lines: Allies that departed from that submissive posture have already paid a price.

• The Pentagon moved in May to withdraw roughly 5,000 troops from Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly savaged Trump's Iran strategy.
• Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain after Madrid denied U.S. base access for strikes on Iran.
• Even Oman — the key intermediary trying to broker a Hormuz deal — is now in Trump's crosshairs. He threatened yesterday to "bomb the sh*t out of" the longtime U.S. partner if it "gets in the way" of an agreement with Iran.

🔭 Zoom out: The same war fueling Trump's fury at U.S. allies is also exposing the limits of American hard power.

• The 60-day deadline Trump and Iran set for a final peace deal expired yesterday with no agreement — and the two sides further apart than when they signed their June memorandum of understanding.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a stubborn monument to that impasse after months of U.S. military and economic pressure.
• The Navy is pulling the USS George Washington from the western Pacific to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln, temporarily leaving Asia without a U.S. carrier.

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This year's midterms are becoming a watershed election for primary meddling, mysterious super PACs, alleged straw candidates and all manner of political shenanigans, Axios' Andrew Solender and Stef W. Kight write.

• Why it matters: With fewer battleground House districts after redistricting and the fight for the Senate extremely tight, each of these schemes could have an outsized impact on control of Congress.

🟢 Green Party spoilers: Democrats are accusing the Green Party nominee in Pennsylvania's 7th District of trying to aid Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) by siphoning progressive votes from Democrat Bob Brooks. Lawsuits allege the candidate, Andrew Tupone, was a registered Republican until February and had help from Republicans getting on the ballot.

👯 Seeing double: In Alaska's primary today, there will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot — Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-Alaska) and former teacher Dan J. Sullivan.

🫏 Democratic dropouts: Democratic Senate candidates in Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota have dropped out at the last minute to lift independent candidates' chances of ousting Republicans.

⌛ 11th-hour switcheroos: Rep. Chuy García (D-Ill.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) both drew criticism for dropping their reelection bids just before the filing deadlines to ensure their chosen successors would not face primary opposition.

🎯 Primary meddling: Federal Election Commission filings revealed Republicans were behind a series of "pop-up" super PACs with names like "Lead Left PAC" and "Progressive Champions PAC." The groups bought ads propping up left-wing or scandal-tarnished Democratic primary candidates.

🇮🇱 AIPAC: The pro-Israel group, whose brand has become reviled by Democratic primary voters, also supported candidates through obscure super PACs. In Illinois, it boosted a preferred House candidate through groups called "Chicago Progressive Partnership" and "Elect Chicago Women."

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Axios' Marc Caputo, a Miami man and Miami Herald alumnus, writes from Tallahassee, Fla.:

Today is the Florida Man primary. "It's really weird," one political pro said.

• Why it matters: Florida, MAGA's beating heart and President Trump's home, was a key prize in his redistricting push to add more GOP-friendly congressional seats.

🖼️ The big picture: What makes some of the contests stand out isn't their competitiveness — it's how they evoke the wacky Florida Man internet meme.

• These campaigns featured carpetbaggers, racial conflict, homophobia, struggling socialists, antisemitism, and even a scandal-plagued member of Congress slapped with a restraining order.
• "It's like Florida Man is having his own election right now," said a Republican political consultant financing one of the state's marquee races.

The Sunshine State's key showdowns:

1. The governor's race: Rep. Byron Donalds is expected to cruise to a win in the GOP primary. One opponent — James Fishback — has generated social media buzz and mainstream media coverage, partly with racist dog whistles. Donalds is on the cusp of becoming the GOP's first Black nominee for Florida governor and would be the favorite to become the state's first Black governor.

2. The Senate race: Democrats' consensus view is that likely nominee Alex Vindman has run such a lackluster campaign that he may come uncomfortably close to his underfunded left-wing opponent, state Rep. Angie Nixon.

3. The House races offer some of Florida's strangest drama:

• In the 6th District, Rep. Randy Fine faces a former "manosphere" influencer who has drawn bipartisan condemnation for antisemitic attacks.
• Scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills is fighting for his political survival in the 7th District after being snubbed by Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) also said he doesn't support Mills.
• In the 20th District, former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is seeking her old seat after resigning under federal indictment. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz could benefit from a split among four Black candidates in the historically Black-held district.
• In the heavily Jewish 25th District, Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces an anti-Zionist democratic socialist in a proxy fight between the pro-Israel establishment and the progressive left.

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Axios' Russell Contreras, who closely tracks criminal justice data, writes:

The U.S. violent crime rate plunged 9.7% last year — the largest annual drop since the FBI's national estimates began in 1936 — according to the bureau's data released last week.

• Why it matters: The data underscore the historic scale of America's crime decline — a trend that appears to be continuing in the first half of this year.

💡 Between the lines: Experts note that the nation's violent crime rate (now the lowest since 1956) has been dropping since 2022. The reasons for the decrease, which is widespread geographically, are unclear: Rates are falling in cities with different public safety strategies, economic conditions and political leadership.

• A leading theory: U.S. drug overdoses, alcohol consumption and firearms purchases — which helped spike the homicide rate when they were going up — are all down. And post-COVID, cities returned to more stable routines and employment.
• President Trump takes credit for the decline, pointing to his National Guard deployments in D.C., Memphis and other cities.

🧮 By the numbers: Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter dropped 18.1%.

• Robbery fell 18.5%, rape 7.6% and aggravated assault 7.2%.
• The U.S. murder rate decreased 18.5% to 4.1 per 100,000 residents, tying 1955 and 1956 for the lowest rate since FBI national estimates began.
• Property crime declined 12.4%, led by drops in motor vehicle theft (22.7%), burglary (15.8%) and larceny-theft (9.8%).

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Anthropic is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion — more than 7x its pace at the end of last year, Bloomberg reports.

• Why it matters: The revenue surge strengthens Anthropic's hand as it moves toward an IPO.

Zoom in: Anthropic's annualized revenue (run rate) has soared from more than $9 billion in late 2025 to $47 billion in May and is now more than $65 billion, according to Bloomberg.

• OpenAI's annualized revenue hit $40 billion, according to a message shared internally by co-founder Greg Brockman last week.

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Women made up just over a quarter of U.S. hires for AI roles last year — compared with half of new hires in non-AI occupations, Axios' Emily Peck writes from LinkedIn data out this morning.

• Men accounted for 74% and women 26% of hires for AI roles in 2025. The highest-paying roles typically have higher percentages of men.

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Vaccination rates among American kindergartners fell during the 2025–2026 school year, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim and Tina Reed write from new CDC data.

• Exemptions from one or more vaccines increased in 41 states and D.C., growing nationally to 4.2% from 3.6% the year before.

Why it matters: The dropoff coincided with the Trump administration's controversial vaccine policy changes and measles cases hitting levels not seen in more than three decades.

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16-year-old lifeguard Ryder Williams and Nathaniel Rai, the 10-year-old boy he rescued off the coast of California last month, were reunited yesterday in the Oval Office.

• President Trump told them: "What you did was incredible, and everybody saw it," referring to a viral video of the July rescue in Santa Cruz.
• "When I first saw it, I said, 'roll that back, I want to see that again,'" Trump added.

The boys' families joined the Oval Office reunion, along with lifeguard Aaron Bohnen, who aided in the Santa Cruz rescue.

• Go deeper ... Watch the rescue.