Tuesday's primary: Florida Man gets his own Election Day

Zoom in: What makes some of the contests stand out isn't their competitiveness — it's how they invoke the wacky Florida Man internet meme.

• These campaigns featured carpetbaggers, racial conflict, homophobia, struggling socialists, antisemitism, and even a scandal-plagued member of Congress slapped with a restraining order.
• "It's like Florida Man is having his own election right now," said a Republican political consultant financing one of the state's marquee races.

Between the lines: As in the rest of the nation, Trump's approval ratings have declined in Florida. But it's a mostly Republican state, and oddsmakers and political insiders from both parties believe the odds still favor the GOP.

• Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 1.5 million in Florida. In 2018, Trump's prior midterm, Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 245,000.

Tuesday's key showdowns in Florida:

1. The governor's race: Rep. Byron Donalds is expected to cruise to a win over his lesser-known and comparatively underfunded opponents in the Republican primary.

• Donalds is on the cusp of becoming the GOP's first Black nominee for Florida governor, and he'd be the favorite to become the Sunshine State's first Black governor.
• One of Donalds' opponents — James Fishback — has generated social media buzz and snagged mainstream media coverage, partly with racist dog whistles. Two weeks ago, a federal judge ordered Fishback to pay his former hedge fund $1.3 million in attorneys' fees and costs stemming from a contentious split.
• On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly is outraising and outspending lesser-known rivals. Jolly, a former Republican, made the unorthodox decision to pick former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate long before the primary.

2. The Senate race: From Tallahassee to D.C., Democrats' consensus view is that the party's likely nominee, Alex Vindman, has run such a lackluster campaign that he may come uncomfortably close to his underfunded opponent, state Rep. Angie Nixon.

• A poll last month from a Democratic-leaning group, shared with Axios, showed Vindman up by just 10 points.
• Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, played a starring role in Trump's first impeachment trial. Vindman's twin brother, Eugene, is a House member from Virginia.
• Nixon recently joined the Democratic Socialists of America, long viewed as too far left for Florida.

On the Republican side, Sen. Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general who was appointed to her seat last year, faces token opposition.

• Like Vindman, Moody faces internal party grumbling about running an uninspiring campaign.
• Unlike Vindman, Moody has more voters and, in the words of one top Senate GOP consultant, "she's going to ride Byron Donalds' coattails and the $100 million he'll spend to get out the vote."

3. The House races

Florida's 25th House District: Redrawn by GOP legislators to favor Republicans, the Democratic primary is a test between the pro-Israel establishment (which supports Rep. Jared Moskowitz) and the anti-Zionist progressive left (which backs Oliver Larkin, a democratic socialist).

• The district is heavily Jewish, and Moskowitz has better name ID than Larkin, so he's favored to win.
• On Friday, a "Chomp the Oligarchy" rally for Larkin, Nixon and another progressive, Elijah Manley in Florida's 20th congressional district, had to be moved after two venues canceled amid accusations of antisemitism because the event featured Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a critic of Israel.

Florida's 20th District: The South Florida seat Manley is running for has been empty since Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned in April, five months after she was federally indicted for allegedly stealing FEMA funds. Now she's running for her old job again in a crowded primary.

• The 20th is a historically Black-held seat. But the only white primary candidate, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, could win if African Americans split their votes among the other four candidates, all of whom are Black.

• Miami rap icon Luther Campbell, one of those Black candidates, has blasted Wasserman Schultz for moving from her district to this one after Republican legislators redrew her district to favor the GOP.

Florida's 6th District: In the GOP primary, Rep. Randy Fine, a pro-Israel conservative who's made incendiary comments about Palestinians, is being challenged by former "manosphere" influencer Dan Bilzerian — who has drawn bipartisan condemnation for his hate speech in the race.

• On Thursday, Bilzerian posted an AI video calling Fine a "fat Jew" and referencing Hitler by asking, "Should we revisit that Austrian painter's opinions?"
• Fine is expected to win.

Florida's 24th District: In the Democratic primary, a mystery group last week blasted out a text message that falsely said it was sent by Equality Florida and smeared state Sen. Shevrin Jones by claiming he had tested positive for HIV. Jones, who is gay, does not have HIV.

• Six primary candidates, all African American, are running for this historically Black and heavily Democratic Miami seat.

Florida's 7th District: In the GOP primary, Rep. Cory Mills is widely considered the state's most scandal-plagued member of Congress. He's been accused of "stolen valor" over his military record, faced a federal investigation and is suspected of abusing at least two girlfriends in separate instances.

• Last year, a judge issued a restraining order against Mills after he allegedly threatened to release sexual videos of one of the ex-girlfriends.
• Trump had endorsed Mills last year but last week issued a new endorsement list again that notably snubbed him. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) also said he doesn't support Mills.
• Republican insiders say he's in danger of losing in the crowded primary to former TV reporter Ryan Elijah.

Florida's 19th District: This crowded GOP race in Southwest Florida has become known as the "carpetbagger primary," in which a record five candidates have run for Congress in other states. Two are former House members.

• Trump last week endorsed Catalina Lauf, who showed signs of surging late.