Even some Republican voters sour on Trump
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High prices, a persistent war and anxiety about corruption are quickly eroding President Trump's support among Republicans, a warning sign for the White House with less than 80 days to the midterms.
Why it matters: Democrats look likely to take control of the House already, but Trump's weakness could cost Republicans more seats and further endanger the Senate.
- The loss of one or both chambers would guarantee two years of scrutiny and gridlock for the end of Trump's presidency.
By the numbers: Three surveys out in the last week paint a clear picture of growing dissatisfaction among the president's base.
- 📉 An Economist/YouGov poll out Tuesday had Trump's approval rating among Republicans at a second-term low of 79 percent — a decline of 12 points from shortly after he took office.
- In that time, the percentage of Republicans who "strongly approve" of Trump's performance has dropped more precipitously —by 20 points (from 68 to 48 percent).
- Trump is barely above water among non-MAGA Republicans, who make up about 30 percent of the party. Only 51 percent approved of his performance, vs. 47 percent who disapproved. The positive rating among non-MAGA Republicans fell 13 points in one week.
- ⬇️ A Financial Times poll out this weekend had Trump's net approval rating among Republicans off 8 points from just a month prior.
- 💰 Republican consumer sentiment fell 9.5 points in August from July, per the University of Michigan monthly survey out Friday — one of the largest declines the decades-old project has ever recorded. The Republican decline was more than double the overall headline number.
Driving the news: It's no secret what's behind the numbers: the war in Iran, high gas prices and stubborn inflation.
- These recent findings come on the heels of polls that show rising Republican skepticism of the war and GOP wariness over whether Trump is using his office for personal profit.
The intrigue: Trump's political strength has long derived from outsized loyalty among Republicans, so even a slight slippage could be consequential.
- In his first term, his approval among GOP voters averaged 88 percent, per Gallup.
Between the lines: The midterm following a presidential election is historically unkind to the party controlling the White House. Though Republicans have used redistricting to limit their losses in the House, they still face a serious enthusiasm deficit: Democratic voters are much more fired up to turn out than Republicans.
- A July Washington Post-Ipsos poll showed Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans among voters who say they're certain to turn out.
- Nathan Nascimento, executive director at the conservative group AFP Action, told the Post that one in five base GOP voters are at risk of staying home in November.
- "This is a scary number," he said.
The other side: The White House did not return Axios' request for comment.
- But Trump has dismissed bad polling for him as biased and "fake," and he routinely claims on Truth Social that his numbers are stronger than ever.
The bottom line: Trump's slipping poll numbers come with the post-Labor Day home stretch just weeks away — when voter perceptions become increasingly baked in.
