President-elect Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plan to push for what could wind up as the biggest bill in American history — a mega-MAGA reordering of taxes, the nation's borders, federal spending and regulations, transition and Hill sources tell Axios' Mike Allen and Stef Kight.

• Why it matters: Washington will soon witness a furious, multitrillion-dollar legislative and lobbying fight that likely will dominate politics through late spring and possibly beyond.

At stake: Unprecedented spending to tighten borders and remove people here illegally, huge tax cuts, energy deregulation — plus, presumably, unprecedented spending cuts to help pay for it all.

• We're told the bill will include Trump's popular "no tax on tips" campaign promise. Raising the federal debt ceiling could be included.

💰 The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates extending the tax cuts from Trump's first term could cost $5 trillion over 10 years.

• So look for a conservative push for significant spending offsets. Senate Republicans have already been busy finding ways to pay for parts of the plan via spending cuts + energy revenue.

💡 Between the lines: Each piece is complicated and costly on its own. Rolling it all into one fat package is unlike anything Washington has done before.

• The margin for error is slim: As Friday's chaotic House speaker election showed, just a handful of House Republicans can sink any bill. The GOP margin will soon temporarily shrink to zero.

🐘 Republicans, who'll control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in 15 days, initially were inclined to split up the border and tax packages into a two-track process.

• In mid-December, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus sent Johnson a letter insisting on two bills: "border security must move first — and then we should move forward to a second, larger reconciliation bill covering taxes, spending, energy, bureaucracy, and more."

The one-track plan is based on the calculation that one big, Trump-branded bill has a better chance of passage than splitting it up. "It motivates people to vote for it," a transition source tells us.

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The strategy for passing President-elect Trump's agenda was hotly debated — and only crystallized during a New Year's Day meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Trump, Vice President-elect Vance, Johnson and aides, sources tell Mike and Stef.

• Both the Trump and Johnson teams made sure each has buy-in.

At the New Year's meeting, the group hashed out pros and cons: Split bills could mean a quick, flashy win on the border. But one bill would give Johnson leverage to force his conference's warring factions to all come to the table.

• In a split scenario, hardliners might insist on passing a border bill, before they discuss raising or eliminating the cap on federal deductions for state and local taxes (SALT). Members from high-tax states might do the opposite.

🧠 The logic: We're told Johnson thinks you can squeeze members harder to pass a single "Trump bill" than one-offs.

• The speaker figures that in a big deal, even though everyone will find something not to like, there'll be too much to love.

🏛️ State of play: The bill would use the budget reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to bypass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster. So only a simple majority is needed.

• Yesterday, the day after his dramatic re-election as speaker, Johnson unveiled the plan for a unified reconciliation bill to House Republicans during a closed-door policy retreat at Fort McNair in D.C. Channeling Trumpian lingo, Johnson has called it "one big, beautiful bill."
• "I want to compliment the Trump administration and the team. They've worked so well with us," Johnson told his members, in comments reported by Punchbowl and confirmed by Axios.

🤔 What we're hearing: Some Senate Republicans are frustrated by the turn toward a single bill. So the conversation may not be over.

• A big concern among Senate Republicans is that one bill would take too long: They worry they won't be able to move fast enough to secure the border, opening them up to criticism, sources tell us.

🥊 Reality check: This is all easier said than done. Every faction within the GOP, and every big donor and industry, will want their hobby horse in this bill.

The bottom line: This is likely to take longer than the storied 100 days, which will end on April 30. The most optimistic timeline for mega-bill passage is late spring (April or May) — which really means June, and could even take until fall.

• Axios' Andrew Solender contributed reporting ... Share this story.

Texas, Florida and Iowa are home to some of America's fastest-growing large counties, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj write from new census data.

• Why it matters: This zoomed-in view offers a close look at population change within individual states. For instance, there's huge growth around Texas' major cities — but many of its rural counties are shrinking.

Explore the data ... Share this story.

Former President Carter's week-long state funeral began yesterday when a motorcade carrying his remains departed Americus, Ga., from Phoebe Sumter Medical Center, the large regional hospital near Plains, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

• That's where Carter made his final hospital visits before entering home hospice care in February 2023, and where the funeral procession for former First Lady Rosalynn Carter also began.

National eulogist Jon Meacham writes for the AJC, in "Jimmy Carter was a big part of America's soul":

"Farmer, naval officer, nuclear engineer, Christian and politician, President Carter would prove both engineer and moral leader, and his understanding of the country was at once technical and theological — a reminder that presidents have both practical and pastoral roles to play in the life of the nation."

More photos ... Line-by-line schedule.

The rate on the 30-year mortgage is hovering close to 7%, a nearly 6-month high, Axios' Emily Peck writes from Freddie Mac data.

• Though home sales picked up in the third quarter despite rising rates, they're still hovering at historic lows.

Why it matters: Higher rates are putting home buying out of reach for many Americans, and simply turning others off from the market.

🔮 What's next: Most forecasts see mortgage rates declining a smidge in 2025 to 6-6.5% — probably not enough to jolt the slumping real estate market.

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who took charge Friday, told NBC's Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press" when asked about his relationship with President-elect Trump, after Thune endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C) for the GOP nomination:

"It's evolving, and we have a relationship, I think, where we understand what each other wants to accomplish. ... [T]here is an alignment of incentives — we want to get to the same destination. ... I think that's a powerful combination. And we're going to continue to build on that."

Meteorologists warn some parts of the U.S. could be about to get the heaviest snowfall in a decade.

• That orange blizzard warning is super-rare for parts of the Kansas City metro — once a decade or so, Axios weather expert Andrew Freedman tells me.

More from Andrew.

In the East Room yesterday, President Biden conferred the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation's highest civilian honor, on honorees who included Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Above: Biden salutes Earvin "Magic" Johnson, "a legendary retired basketball player who led the Los Angeles Lakers to five championships. Off the court, he is a successful entrepreneur and philanthropist."

• "Let me just say to each of you," Biden said, "thank you, thank you, thank you for all you've done to help this country."

The full list: José Andrés ... Bono ... Ash Carter (posthumous) ... Hillary Clinton ... Michael J. Fox ... Tim Gill ... Jane Goodall ... Fannie Lou Hamer (posthumous) ... Earvin "Magic" Johnson ... former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy (posthumous) ... Ralph Lauren ... Lionel Messi ... Bill Nye the Science Guy ... former Michigan Gov. George W. Romney (posthumous) ... David Rubenstein ... George Soros ... George Stevens, Jr. ... Denzel Washington ... Anna Wintour.

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