Trump's mega-MAGA moonshot

At stake: Unprecedented spending to tighten borders and remove people here illegally, huge tax cuts, energy deregulation — plus, presumably, unprecedented spending cuts to help pay for it all. 

• We're told the bill will include Trump's popular "no tax on tips" campaign promise. Raising the federal debt ceiling could be included.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates extending the tax cuts from Trump's first term could cost $5 trillion over 10 years.

• So look for a conservative push for significant spending offsets. Senate Republicans have already been busy finding ways to pay for parts of the plan via spending cuts + energy revenue.

Between the lines: Each piece is complicated and costly on its own. Rolling it all into one fat package is unlike anything Washington has done before.

• The margin of error is so slim: As Friday's chaotic House speaker election showed, just a handful of House Republicans can sink any bill. The GOP margin will soon shrink temporarily to zero.

Republicans, who'll control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in 15 days, initially were inclined to split up the border and tax packages into a two-track process.

• In mid-December, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus sent Johnson a letter insisting on two bills: "border security must move first — and then we should move forward to a second, larger reconciliation bill covering taxes, spending, energy, bureaucracy, and more."
• The one-track plan is based on the calculation that one big, Trump-branded bill has a better chance of passage than splitting it up. "It motivates people to vote for it," a transition source tells us.

Behind the scenes: The strategy was hotly debated — and only crystallized during a New Year's Day meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Trump, Vice President-elect Vance, Johnson and aides, the sources tell us.

• Both the Trump and Johnson teams made sure each has buy-in.

At the New Year's meeting, the group hashed out pros and cons: Split bills could mean a quick, flashy win on the border. But one bill would give Johnson leverage to force his conference's warring factions to all come to the table.

• In a split scenario, hardliners might insist on passing a border bill, before they discuss raising or eliminating the cap on federal deductions for state and local taxes (SALT). Members from high-tax states might do the opposite.

The logic: We're told Johnson thinks you can squeeze members harder to pass a single "Trump bill" than one-offs.

• The speaker figures that in a big deal, even though everyone will find something not to like, there'll be too much to love.

State of play: The bill would use the budget reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to bypass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster. So only a simple majority is needed.

• On Saturday, the day after his dramatic re-election as speaker, Johnson unveiled the plan for a unified reconciliation bill to House Republicans during a closed-door policy retreat at Fort McNair in Washington. Channeling Trumpian lingo, Johnson has called it "one big, beautiful bill."
• "I want to compliment the Trump administration and the team. They've worked so well with us," Johnson told his members, in comments reported by Punchbowl and confirmed by Axios.

What we're hearing: Some Senate Republicans are frustrated by the turn toward a single bill. So the conversation may not be over.

• A big concern among Senate Republicans is that one bill would take too long: They worry they won't be able to move fast enough to secure the border, opening them up to criticism, sources tell us.

Reality check: This is all easier said than done. Every faction within the GOP, and every powerful donor and industry, will want their hobby horse in this bill.

The bottom line: This is likely to take longer than the storied 100 days, which will end April 30. The most optimistic timeline for mega-bill passage is late spring (April or May) — which really means June, and could even take until fall.

Axios' Andrew Solender contributed reporting.