Top Democratic operatives see expanding defections by Hispanic voters to the GOP, worsening Democrats' outlook for November's midterms.

• Why it matters: Democrats had hoped this might be a phenomenon specific to the Trump era. But new polling shows it accelerating, worrying party strategists about the top of the ticket in 2024.

A Wall Street Journal poll (subscription) last week found that by 9 points, Hispanic voters said they'd back a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat.

• In November, the parties were tied.

What's happening: Democrats saw evidence of this shift in 2020 in House races in south Florida, Texas and southern New Mexico.

• Key factors, operatives say, include skepticism among Hispanic voters about programs they view as handouts. And many Hispanics are social conservatives, with what L.A. Times columnist Gustavo Arellano has called a "rancho libertarianism streak."
• The national party also needs to do better with messages that distinguish among Americans whose families hailed from Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico or Central America, several Democrats tell me.

Our thought bubble: Latinos, especially Mexican Americans, still lean Democratic. But Democrats have been losing ground among these voters in recent elections because the party hasn't been paying enough attention to them, Axios' Russell Contreras reports.

• Democrats talk about climate change, but dismiss the fact that many Latinos work in lucrative oilfield jobs in New Mexico and West Texas.
• Democrats talk about diversity. But by pleasing white progressives, they push out moderate Hispanic candidates.
• Democrats target Latinos by talking about immigration. But polls show immigration ranks 5th or 6th among the issues most important to these voters. The economy is usually the top concern.

New Mexico Democratic political consultant Sisto Abeyta said he's been ringing the alarm bells for months that Democrats in his state were losing Hispanic men: "And everyone has been ignoring me."

• Republican consultant Mike Madrid, based in Sacramento, told Axios: "As Democrats start to focus more on white, cultural, progressive cultural issues, they're losing the fastest segment of the non-college-educated population, and that's Latinos."

Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, based in D.C., told Axios his party keeps hiring political consultants for U.S. House races who know little to nothing about Latino voters:

• "They run the same [expletive] game plan every two years."

Sign up here for twice-weekly Axios Latino ... Go deeper: Full Wall Street Journal poll results (not paywalled).

A freelancer who formerly worked on New York Times projects was killed covering the war in Ukraine, The Times said today.

• "We are deeply saddened to hear of Brent Renaud's death. Brent was a talented filmmaker who had contributed to The New York Times over the years," The Times said in a statement emailed to Axios.
• "Though he had contributed to The Times in the past (most recently in 2015), he was not on assignment for any desk at The Times in Ukraine. Early reports that he worked for Times circulated because he was wearing a Times press badge that had been issued for an assignment many years ago."
• Renaud, 50, was a writer, filmmaker, and photojournalist from Little Rock, according to his Nieman bio.

⚡ NATO's doorstep: Waves of Russian missiles pounded a military training base near Ukraine’s western border with NATO member Poland, killing 35 people, Ukrainian authorities told AP.

• More than 30 Russian cruise missiles targeted the sprawling facility, less than 15 miles from the closest border point with Poland, according to the governor of Ukraine’s western Lviv region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of using blackmail and bribery in an attempt to force local officials in the southern Kherson region to form a "pseudo-republic."

• Axios Ukraine dashboard ... Axios explainers.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for a dozen ballistic missiles that struck Iraq's northern Kurdish regional capital of Erbil in the early hours of Sunday, Iran's state media reported, Reuters reports.

• Why it matters: The missile attack comes as talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal face the prospect of collapse. A last-minute Russian demand forced world powers to pause negotiations for an undetermined time, despite having a largely completed text.

The missiles, which targeted a U.S. consulate's building that is new and unoccupied, caused only material damage and one civilian was injured, the Kurdish interior ministry said. An Iraqi security official told Reuters that the missiles were made in Iran.

• The Iranian statement said the attack was against Israeli "strategic centers" in Erbil.

A State Department spokesperson tells Axios: "There is no damage or casualties at any U.S. Government facility. The incident is being investigated by the government of Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government ... We condemn this outrageous attack and display of violence."

Lviv preps for potential Russian invasion: Statues are wrapped yesterday at Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church in Lviv, western Ukraine.

• The church was dedicated in 1630 — 392 years ago.

At left, a lone police officer in Times Square in March 2020.

• At right, supporters of the Ukrainian community in Times Square in March 2022.

See 3 more split screens, from Axios senior visual journalist Aïda Amer.

A CBS News poll out today finds "overwhelming support for sanctions on Russia's oil and gas, and the willingness to pay more as a result."

• Why it matters: This is "the kind of widespread sentiment we don’t always see in public opinion these days: bipartisan, cutting across race, region, and even income," CBS pollsters note.

Go deeper.

🗞️ WashPost's Taylor Lorenz on Friday: "30 top TikTok stars gathered on a Zoom call to receive key information about the war ... National Security Council staffers and White House press secretary Jen Psaki briefed the influencers about the United States’ strategic goals."

🤣 The "Saturday Night Live" cold open took viewers "inside the historic meeting," with President Biden (played by James Austin Johnson, who's also the show's new Donald Trump) saying:

• "People are saying this is the first war fought on TikTok — which is very tough for me, because I'm the landline of presidents."

Watch the video.

In Beijing today, Team USA's sled hockey team (above) won its fourth consecutive Paralympic title, beating rival Canada 5-0 in the biggest rout ever in a Paralympic gold-medal game, NBC Sports reports.

• Video: "A SPORTS DYNASTY."