President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plan is one of the biggest, most abrupt economic gambles in presidential history, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write.

• He acted against the advice of most business leaders, many economists and even some Republican officials.

Why it matters: The reciprocal tariffs, which go into effect in one week, target vital trading partners with massive levies — the kind that could raise consumer prices, interrupt business activity and upend global trade.

🌐 The big picture: With a single stroke of his pen, Trump seeks to reorder the global economy in a way that he believes will create a golden age for U.S. industry.

• A senior White House official called President Trump's announcement of new tariffs yesterday the "most ambitious economic realignment the American people have ever seen." It's hard to disagree.

On Day 74 of his term, Trump made this historic attempt to choke off the flow of foreign goods — or at least make it much pricier for Americans to consume them.

• But there's a reason all those people have recommended a more restrained approach. Prices on imported goods are likely to surge, a recession is possible, and far-reaching ripples in international economics and diplomacy are a certainty.

🌡️ Between the lines: Trump, in disregarding those recommendations, touched the hot stove, knowing he risks getting burned.

🔎 Zoom in: It's hard to overstate the scale of the change to U.S. trade policy that has occurred in these still-early days of Trump's term.

• The president's 10% global baseline — applying to countries worldwide — is lower than the 20% some in financial markets had anticipated.

But make no mistake: This is the maximalist scenario economists had feared, with eye-popping taxes on around 60 nations that Trump sees as the worst offenders.

• The tariffs would translate into a 2.3 percentage point increase to overall inflation this year, according to new estimates from the Yale Budget Lab, or about a $3,800 impact for the average household.

🧮 By the numbers: Chinese imports will be subject to 54% tariffs starting next week, a figure that stacks the 34% reciprocal rate with the previous 20% already in effect.

• Including tariffs imposed during Trump 1.0, the average U.S. tax on Chinese imports will be 76%, according to Chad Bown, a senior trade fellow at PIIE.
• Any manufacturers who shifted production to Vietnam to avoid China tariffs are out of luck: That country will now face a 46% tariff.
• Imports from Japan, South Korea and India now face tariffs of upwards of 25%.
• European imports will face 20% tariffs, while vehicles manufactured there are subject to 25% tariffs as of this morning, under a policy announced last week.

👀 What to watch: Trump and senior officials suggested a tough path for countries to escape tariffs.

• "This is not a negotiation," a senior administration official told reporters. "This is a national emergency."
• "Any country that thinks that they can simply make an announcement promising to lower some tariffs is ignoring the big central problem of their massive non-tariff barriers," the official said.

The bottom line: For decades, American consumers have benefited from a constant flow of cheap goods manufactured from around the world.

• Be ready to find U.S.-made substitutes — or prepare to pay more.

Share this story.

The verdict is in: President Donald Trump's voters are lively when he's running for the White House. They're downright lethargic when he's not, Axios MAGA media expert Tal Axelrod writes.

• Why it matters: This isn't just the assessment of Democrats. It's coming straight from the vice president and leaders of the MAGA movement.

It can have massive implications for the results of key gubernatorial races this year and for next year's midterms:

• The conservative candidate in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race lost by 10 points in a 50-50 state.
• While Republicans won two House special elections by about 15 points, those were drops from over 30-point margins in the same districts just last November.

🔭 Zoom out: Low-propensity, working-class voters helped fuel Trump's 2024 win.

• Now MAGA luminaries are fretting that those same voters only turn out when Trump's name is on the ballot — making the GOP base less intimidating in off-year races and putting narrow congressional majorities at risk.

💬 Vice President Vance wrote on X: "The political problem on the Republican side of the aisle is how to get our base to vote in off-cycle elections. We've seen the establishment (finally) accept Donald Trump's leadership of the Republican Party. Now it's time to try to actually learn from his political success."

• The well-wired Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, the MAGA youth network — said on his show that many "lower propensity voters, the people that showed up in massive numbers for President Trump ... decided to embrace the couch instead of the ballot" on Tuesday. "I want to examine what we need to do as a party and a movement to motivate people," Kirk added. "President Trump was able to motivate people."

Share this story.

Republicans survived Tuesday's special elections for two congressional seats in Florida. But the races exposed deep frustrations in President Trump's team over the House GOP's political apparatus, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• Why it matters: The growing angst comes as Republicans are holding onto a narrow congressional majority in an uncertain political environment.

It's also unfolding as Democrats looking to the 2026 midterms were heartened by Tuesday's results in Florida and Wisconsin.

🖼️ The big picture: The Trump political operation's anger focuses on the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) super PAC — the organizations in charge of defending the party's thin House majority.

• Trump lieutenants say they repeatedly warned the groups to pay attention to the race for the north-central Florida House seat vacated by now-national security adviser Mike Waltz.

Trump advisers say their concerns were dismissed by the NRCC and CLF, which were confident Fine would win in a district President Trump won by 30 points in November.

• The NRCC didn't air ads until the closing days of the race, when private polling by Trump strategist Tony Fabrizio showed Fine might lose. CLF didn't spend any money on the race.

Keep reading.

House Democrats are making an unusual plea to billionaire Trump lieutenant Elon Musk: Come campaign for our Republican opponents next year, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• Why it matters: Democrats see the Republican-aligned candidate's wipeout in Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court election as a clear signal that Musk has become electoral poison for the GOP.

Musk invested heavily in the Wisconsin race, traveling to the state on behalf of conservative Brad Schimel and doling out millions of dollars on ads and direct giveaways to voters.

• Reacting to liberal Susan Crawford's 10-point win, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said: "Elon Musk was just rejected decisively."

🏛️ What they're saying: Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), asked if he wants Musk to campaign for his congressional neighbor and bitter enemy Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), told Axios, "I'll pay for his coach flight."

• Battleground-district Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) said of Musk coming to her district: "Yes, please! Can you arrange that? Who do I speak to about that?"

Share this story.

Axios Media Trends Executive on Saturday will publish a first-of-its-kind Platform Insights report, by Sara Fischer and Kerry Flynn, giving subscribers a handy breakdown of policy, advertising and product changes from every internet platform.

• Why it matters: The number of major consumer internet platforms used daily by Americans has exploded. Tracking the companies' policy and product changes reveals broad trends about society, business and culture.

What's inside: Each biannual report will include a list of changes introduced at each major platform over the past six months, as well as a distillation of high-level takeaways and themes to watch.

• Platforms covered include Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Google, Spotify, Reddit, Threads, YouTube, Twitch, ChatGPT and more.

Subscribe here! Use code PLATFORMREPORT10 for 10% off.

Scammers could well be among those finding creative — and concerning — uses for ChatGPT's new image generator, Axios Future of Cybersecurity author Sam Sabin writes.

• Why it matters: Axios' testing of the new image generator found that the tool generates plausible fake receipts, employment offers and social media ads to invest in Bitcoin.

The big picture: ChatGPT adoption has skyrocketed since OpenAI's new image-generating tool launched a flotilla of AI-created art styled after Studio Ghibli, The Simpsons and The Muppets.

• Just as the images went viral, so did the examples for potential exploitation, including the ability to create fake receipts and forged cease-and-desist letters.

🔬 Zoom in: Testing showed ChatGPT can create some pretty basic images of fake receipts, job offers and advertisements for cryptocurrencies.

• After some prompting, it created a pretty believable fake receipt — and ChatGPT had no problem using a coffee chain's copyrighted logo.

When asked, the model produced an employment document showing someone had been hired to work at Apple as a software engineer.

• Keep reading.

Jonathan Karl — ABC News' chief Washington correspondent, co-anchor of "This Week" and author of three bestselling Trump books — will be out Oct. 28 with "Retribution: Donald Trump and the Campaign That Changed America."

• Why it matters: JKarl tells me that by exploring root causes of President Trump's comeback, the new book will deal "quite directly" with "why I was wrong." Karl thought it was "highly unlikely" Trump would return.

Karl, who didn't take book leave, talked to Trump at key moments throughout the campaign. Much of the book's reporting is on the record, from both presidential campaigns.

• Karl started reporting this book as soon as it was clear Trump would win the GOP nomination, with barely a lull after Karl's last New York Times bestseller, "Tired of Winning." The quartet launched with "Front Row at the Trump Show," followed by "Betrayal."

The new book will explore how a new team coalesced around Trump "with the goal of creating an entirely new world order," the publisher writes in the book announcement.

• More on the book.

Hilton leads the new FORTUNE list of the 100 best companies to work for.

• Why it matters: FORTUNE says companies on the list have outperformed the market with a total return of 3,174% compared to the Russell 1000's 907% from December 1997 to December 2024.

The top five:

1. Hilton
2. Synchrony
3. Cisco
4. American Express
5. Nvidia

Between the lines: Fortune's cover features Delta CEO Ed Bastian, whose company ranks 15th.

• Full list.